End of the year review | Marketing trend predictions for 2024

In the field of marketing, forecasting and trend analysis have always been important tools to guide brands and marketers in formulating strategies. This article is the author's seventh consecutive year of guessing and reviewing the annual marketing trends, and deeply explores the hot spots and changes in the marketing industry in 2024.

2024 is the seventh consecutive year that I have started the "Annual Marketing Trend Guess". To my shame, I dug a hole since the beginning of the year - I only wrote half of the detailed version of the trend guess.

It’s the end of the year now, and in this article on trend speculation, I will try to fill in all the holes. (You can skip reading the gray text)

「Article 0」 Reaching consensus

Original text: Entering 2024, the endless longing for economic recovery in the past has been replaced by the reality of the blow. Brand owners have adopted a more pragmatic way of survival. "Survive the winter and survive" has become the primary goal of many brand owners in 2024.

But just because business is difficult doesn’t mean there is no business to do; there is more than just one way to survive the winter: hibernation. As a marketer, you must not be passive and lazy, or just deal with things. The more difficult the time, the more you need to maintain a sensitive intuition and actively explore. Only by closely observing the pulse of society can you discover the business opportunities hidden in it.

Guess index: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Summary: No one will deny this. If at the beginning of 2024, everyone would still gather together to talk about when the economic environment would improve, then at the beginning of 2025, everyone would think about how much food and ammunition to stockpile in order for the company to survive for two more years. Almost all industries have ushered in the "reduction era".

1. Consumers enter a "belief vacuum period" and brand owners compete for the "right to reshape meaning"

Guess index: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Summary: The popularity of Jellycat and the various city museum cultural and creative plush and tea-related products derived from it this year is enough to illustrate consumers' urgent need for emotional values ​​and life beliefs.

The founder of Jellycat once said: We are not making toys, but creating works that can trigger emotional resonance. And this emotional premium makes merchants earn a lot of money.

Similarly, when the outdoor brand Columbia teamed up with Jiang Qiming to promote the concept of "Go into nature and have fun naturally", it also found an emotional outlet and a reason to buy for young people.

Therefore, when young people break away from the vortex of internal circulation but are unwilling to admit that they have to lie down, they will actively become new fans of any brand that can help them find new meaning and new perspectives in life and cater to their emotions.

【original】:

At present, the younger generation is facing unprecedented new challenges. The classic and correct path to success that was once considered to be successful is no longer feasible.
When the "meritocracy" creed of "as long as you work hard enough, you will have a chance to succeed" is broken; when the wave of layoffs in major Internet companies is getting higher and higher, when it becomes increasingly difficult to make money, and promotions and salary increases are out of reach... young people inevitably experience a collapse of faith, just like the scientists in "The Three-Body Problem" who dejectedly discovered that "physics no longer exists."
The next stage after the collapse of faith is doubt and confusion. Young people begin to ask themselves, why do they choose to drift in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou? Will they be able to make money steadily if they work hard to squeeze into a big, glamorous company? If they can't make money, what does it mean to be successful? ... ...
Amid collapse and confusion, the younger generation fell into a "vacuum of faith". They urgently need to find a new set of values ​​and new reasons and bases for all their actions.
Looking back at the jokes from 2003, "It's not that XXX can't afford it, but that XXX is more cost-effective~" Such jokes actually show that consumers are actively deconstructing the original consumerism and looking for new reasons to buy; CityWalk or special forces tourism essentially replaced the overseas travel and luxury travel of previous years; senior citizen universities and night school training courses focusing on personal interests and hobbies have filled the time vacated by knowledge payment for the purpose of promotion and salary increase in the past...
Therefore, what brands need to do nowadays is no longer to provide "market education" in the traditional sense, but to go to a higher dimension and "give meaning" to consumers when choosing products. As long as this meaning makes sense and the product is more cost-effective within the scope of "meaning", then all brands have the opportunity to refurbish or become popular.
For example, the old Chinese brand Fenghua, which picks up boxes everywhere to ship, has a "stingy" + "affordable" setting, which has become the meaning of buying it. Fenghua is stingy even with the money for the delivery box. Its affordability is definitely not due to lowering the quality, but to being stingy! OK, buy it!
The Nanning Osmanthus brand watches that people queue up for hours seem to be very cost-effective in terms of "antique inventory" and "nostalgia". After all, the original antique inventory watches from the 1990s can be bought for only 80-200 yuan now, which is more cost-effective than buying a dress watch or even a bracelet. OK, buy it!
Dong Yuhui has been on a roll in the field of e-commerce live streaming and has counterattacked to become a real president. In addition to relying on the "Mother-in-law Fan Club", he has also created a new form of "knowledge-driven sales". After watching a few hours of free knowledge talk shows, if you come across products you like, you can place an order at a discount, which not only saves on performance tickets but also buys good things at a low price. It's such a good thing, buy it!
Of course, there are some brands whose "reshaping of meaning" is more dimensional and have a stronger voice. For example, Patagonia, a sports brand that advocates "anti-consumerism", Xianyu, which reshapes second-hand transactions into "business interests", and Proya, which does not rely on ingredients or celebrity endorsements, has become an activist for "gender equality"...
When you give new meaning to consumers’ actions and purchases, you actually gain pricing power in new markets.
For example, if some hotels in first- and second-tier cities that are far away from tourist attractions do not just do low-price pre-sales on Douyin, but instead cooperate with bookstores/publishing houses, restaurants, and aromatherapy/wellness clubs to launch some themed bundled packages, redefining themselves as staycation destinations, allowing consumers to have a relaxing vacation-like experience without having to leave the city, consumers will no longer simply evaluate your price based on the hotel star rating, but will judge based on the "psychological wallet" of travel consumption. There is no doubt that this kind of staycation package is definitely more convenient and cost-effective.

2. Seizing the “sense of life”, shopping malls capture more “out-of-circle traffic”

Guess index: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Summary: When it comes to revitalizing shopping malls in 2024, we have to mention three keywords: Guzidian, Pangdonglai, and Market

From a niche store that was despised in the past, it has transformed itself into a store that is frequently sought after and treated like a VIP by shopping malls. Guzi Store and the consumer circle behind it can finally hold their heads high!

The myth of Guzi store saving declining shopping malls is spreading all over the country, including Shanghai Bailian zx, Zhengzhou Da Shanghai City, Hubin Yintai in77, Wuhan X118... countless shopping malls are extending olive branches to Guzi store, and are even willing to provide more resources just to satisfy young people who like Guzi.

Of course, young people don’t just go to Guzi store to shop. Many young people even go to Guzi store in groups wearing COS costumes to meet more people with similar interests and share their own experiences... Guzi store is more like a social space for them.

If Guzi stores stimulate the spiritual thirst of young people, then the new supermarkets represented by Pang Donglai stimulate adults' yearning for the atmosphere of everyday life.

In Shijingshan District outside the fifth ring road in Beijing, a Yonghui supermarket opened after being assisted by Pang Donglai, which has revitalized the three surrounding shopping malls. Many people drive 50 to 60 kilometers across Beijing to shop here. On weekends, you can even see a large number of Tianjin and Hebei license plates in the parking lot.

In this Yonghui supermarket, the longest queues are always in the food areas with freshly made baked goods, stewed food and other food with the aroma of wok. In terms of product prices alone, this Yonghui supermarket does not have an advantage, and some products are even more expensive than those in convenience stores.

What really attracts customers to place orders is the friendly smiles of the salespersons and the strong sense of home, which allows more people to experience the long-lost sense of life.

The word "market" is no longer as simple as "market" in 2024. More brands have extended the relaxed and free atmosphere of the market into store styles. For example, M Stand coffee opened M Stand Market in shopping malls in five cities across the country at once, attracting a large number of young people to check in and buy.

From a coffee shop, it has become a new lifestyle market. For shopping malls, this new species is also a shot in the arm to attract young people to the store.

【original】:

With the foreshadowing of the previous trend insight, we can clearly see that even if consumers have less money in their pockets, they still have to live their lives, and not only live their lives, but also live them with fun and happiness. So who will take over the traffic of consumption downgrade? In the end, offline shopping malls are still the target.
According to the statistics reported by Lianshang.com, 15 commercial entities (shopping malls) will enter the market in Beijing in 2024, 20 shopping malls will open in Hangzhou, and more than 72 commercial projects of various types are planned to be opened in Shanghai... It can be said that the giants in the retail vertical industry are still quite positive and optimistic about 2024, and they have all entered the market to make plans. At the same time, new models of cross-border integration are emerging in an endless stream, such as the incubation of national trend managers, mountain outdoor activities, new-style social interaction, and cultural and art curatorship. These elements or themes are all involved.
Merchants are well aware that although consumers have less money in their pockets, their leisure time has not decreased, and ultimately a "new venue" is needed to absorb this leisure time.
When we had money, we often traveled abroad for long vacations, but now we have shifted to domestic travel; when we had money, we could travel to nearby cities or go skiing on ordinary weekends, but now the possible entertainment radius rarely exceeds 10 kilometers; when we had money, a weekend date/gathering might have required going to several places for food and entertainment, but now perhaps a super shopping mall can do it all.
In 2024, "shopping" may once again become a hot word on consumers' lips. During the New Year's Day holiday, the number of visitors to Beijing Huiju Shopping Mall, located on the south fifth ring road of Beijing, reached a 23-year high on New Year's Eve; the Zhongguancun business district, excluding tourist attractions, grew by 92.7% year-on-year.
The increase in shopping mall traffic does not mean that all shopping malls can open their doors and wait for consumers to come. On the contrary, shopping malls today need more new models and new reasons to impress consumers to "go shopping" with you instead of your competitors. The reasons for "go shopping" can be Internet celebrity installations, trendy first stores, IP or art exhibitions, or even multi-themed indoor markets.
The above picture is a statistics and compilation of some of the shopping mall winter marketing activities in 2023 by Lianshang.com. It can be seen that shopping malls have put a lot of effort in attracting and retaining customers.
In 24 years, the next important task for shopping malls is how to "leanly operate" so that various cross-border elements can generate higher value and create more visible business. The most important part of this is how to effectively integrate cross-border elements/industry rules into the mall space and learn from others' strengths to defeat them.
For example, how can we get various merchants in the mall to participate in the "stamping" activity that is often used in markets or cultural and creative exhibitions? In addition to collecting entrance fees for exhibitions or placing some styling installations in the atrium, can the cooperation between shopping malls and IPs be specially authorized by IPs so that all merchants in the mall can benefit from it? For example, tea drinks can cooperate with IPs to make cup sleeves, shopping bags, refrigerator magnets, standees, etc., so that consumers can take their favorite IP materials home while shopping in the mall, and every shopping bag in the mall and every circle of friends can have the memory symbol of the mall, spreading interesting information.
In a word, people shop only when they have a reason, they share when they are surprised, and they attract customers when they share.

3. The popularity of "Internet celebrity cities" remains high, and "city marketing" is a good business

Guess index: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A slap in the face conclusion: leaving aside Erbin, which is very popular at the moment, you will find that the cities around you will become more fun in 2024.

In order to attract the traffic of Black Wukong, Shanxi has taken extreme measures to pave the Black Myth tour route; Altay has grasped the keywords of freedom and yearning, Kaifeng has accommodated the young people queuing up to be matched by Wang Po, and slogans such as "So close and so beautiful, go to Hebei for the weekend" have invaded all parts of the country... Even driven by "reverse tourism", night markets in various cities have become new check-in spots for tourists.

As "Internet celebrity cities" become more popular, local governments have become more professional and calm in their marketing responses to sudden traffic and attention.

【original】:

"If Zibo's sudden popularity is an unexpected surprise, then Harbin's dominance on the list is traceable!" Ten days ago, when I wrote a one-sentence guess about marketing trends, I was a little worried whether it was too absolute. However, the crazy competition among cultural and tourism bureaus in various places in the past few days made my guess come true early.
Why is "city marketing" a good business? Here are the reasons:
1. There is a foundation for urban public construction and cultural tourism development. Unlike the initial stage in the 1990s when cities were looking for "cultural tourism characteristics", now even third- and fourth-tier cities can find some attractions and characteristics that have been packaged by cultural tourism. There will always be some "freshness" to attract tourists.
2. The value of tourism in the internal economic cycle is the largest. As mentioned above, when consumers have limited money in their pockets, they will turn their attention to domestic tourism and find that there are many cities with different scenery and customs waiting to be visited in the vast land. The cost of tourism in second- and third-tier cities is not high, the transportation is convenient, and the infrastructure is not bad. There are more opportunities to become a discoverer of scenery or a taster of trends. Such towns are worth visiting during the holidays.
3. Local governments take the lead in support, and model cities set good rules. In the current environment, the role of tourism in driving the local economy cannot be underestimated, just like the popular conversation between Harbin taxi drivers and southern tourists, southern tourists are not small potatoes, but "little golden beans", and they spend real money. Harbin's three-day tourism revenue exceeded 6 billion. Which city government would not be tempted?
The way of "spending money to pamper tourists" in Zibo and Harbin has almost become a "way of hospitality" that everyone agrees on after continuous hype on the Internet. Once the public accepts this "way of hospitality", when this huge wealth falls into their own city, they will naturally accept the standard of being enthusiastic and patient with tourists from the bottom of their hearts, which is much more effective than the local government issuing a few proposals.
So now that the local cultural and tourism bureaus are already going crazy, is there still a chance for "city marketing" to be left for agencies? Undoubtedly, there is not only an opportunity, but it is also necessary.
AIt is more appropriate for marketing agencies to ignite the fuse of "city marketing".
When the national cultural and tourism bureaus were going crazy and Henan showed off various muscular men, which were talked about by netizens, the Henan Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism issued a solemn statement, requiring unofficial accounts such as "Henan Cultural Tourism" and "Henan Travel Recommendation Officer" on the short video platform to immediately stop infringing. In short, although Henan Cultural Tourism has reached the level of 20 short videos a day, people still think it is "too slow" and "not good at making things happen", so they started to help Henan grab the popularity.
Although this "helping but still being criticized" plot has firmly maintained the line of defense, it also indirectly exposes the constraints and entanglements of local governments in their official capacity, and their lack of sensitivity in judging the development of many online hot spots and trends, and they have missed many good opportunities. This is exactly what marketing agencies are good at. Even if the scale is a little off in the process, let the marketing agencies bear the responsibility, and the local cultural and tourism bureaus can be able to attack and defend.
B How to go from "joining in the fun" to "getting business" requires marketing agencies to comprehensively plan the current busy work of local cultural and tourism bureaus, which are essentially still in a passive state of "joining in the fun + showing presence", and many are dragged in. In addition to frantically editing videos that post-00s love to watch and showing beautiful scenery, few cities "give meaning" to consumers' travel, and there are no appropriate attractions, products or services to impress consumers and promote travel business. In the marketing scenario, this state is like all the merchants on the street shouting "My house is good, come and see my house." But no one can clearly explain what they are selling. Setting unique interest points is exactly what marketing agencies are good at.
In 2024, we look forward to more and more beautiful towns in the country being discovered and visited by everyone, and we also hope that every town can find its own unique charm.

4. "Individual economy" continues to heat up

Guess index: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Face-slapping summary: whether it is the massive congestion on Xiaohongshu's "unemployment track"; or ordinary people posting a product discount link on their Douyin account or Meituan Circle, and then earning commissions by buying the products themselves; or various big guys or newcomers simply leaving and trying to be a "one-person company", or even the business model of "eating multiples" on Xianyu to support grain with grain, the matter of making money from a side job is no longer shameful or niche.

5. The value of the "interest-based social networking x e-commerce" model is evident

Guess index: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Face-slapping summary: The recently released "Xianyu 2024 Sideline Industry Belt Report" shows that young people active on Xianyu earn an average of 3,660 yuan by doing side jobs.

But unlike conventional assumptions, young people's side jobs seem to be more based on interest. For example, feeding pets at home, walking dogs,

Among these interests, [Dimension + Fan Circle] is the most active. Xianyu not only opened a secondary channel for them, but also various small cards and dolls have their own cabinets on the user's own page. There will even be online special topics for the birthday parties of Dimension stars...

6. Marketing agency "Carbon-silicon combination" becomes mainstream

Guess index: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Summary: How many press releases or word-of-mouth articles of today's agencies are not written by AI? How many social posters have not been made with AI as the main visual? Even with the emergence of large models of Kuaishou Keling and Douyin Jimeng, pictures and texts are used to create videos, and then spliced ​​and edited with real materials, so that the amazing creativity of making the Sphinx at that time can now be done almost at will.

As AI functions continue to be segmented, modularized and tooled, it has become an indispensable partner for agencies. Using AI to search the entire web for trends and mainstream opinions in a certain industry in the past two years, you can understand the industry in 5 minutes, instead of having to stay up late to look up information as an intern; in just a few sentences, AI can help you generate a program framework outline, ensuring that the general direction is correct even if you encounter unfamiliar areas (offline activities or e-commerce live broadcasts).

I personally think that the biggest help AI can provide to marketers is that it forces you to ask a good question. Because it is not like a brief where you can write a bunch of nonsense, and it is not like a client or a leader who asks you, "If I know what I want, why would I need you?" If you feed AI with vague questions, it will give you vague or even outrageous answers. Only by constantly correcting questions and instructions can you tame AI and complete daily work tasks that are not so fanciful.

7. Creative hot stores have strong "self-labeling"

Guess index: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A slap in the face summary: In the era of shrinking volume, although creative hot shops want to do everything and make money is king, it is undeniable that if they do not understand their own advantageous labels well enough and do not have clear label identification, it will be difficult to get suitable projects, and they will not even have an extra advantage in many competitions.

HOK boss Yu Aoto spent 140,000 yuan to hire Ye Minggui for consulting; Shengjia founder Sun Weidong also asked various groups to help Shengjia find a new label in the 2024 "Life Force Training Camp"... All of these indirectly indicate that only by establishing a distinctive label can you gain additional trust and premium in the business.

8. “Aesthetics” becomes a must-have skill for marketers

Guess index: ⭐⭐⭐

Summary: There is nothing much to say, but the average aesthetic taste of marketers is far lower than that of Xiaohongshu.

9. The road from advertising to consulting is congested, and actual combat becomes the core competitiveness

Guess index: ⭐⭐⭐

A slap in the face summary: In the current economic environment, when marketers who fled from agencies or large companies provide consulting services to companies in their personal capacity, most of the results are inevitably "lose-lose" - both parties feel that they are doing the other party a favor, one party feels that they cannot get any money, and the other party feels that the money is not worth it.

The era of relying on the name of a big company or former company to prove professionalism and pricing is gone forever. There are too many people in the resignation track who are handling large projects worth millions or with an impact of hundreds of millions, but in fact their role in them is extremely limited.

Therefore, if you cannot streamline, systematize, and visualize the consulting project, and cannot effectively solve the company's marketing or business problems, then the [consulting studio] built by advertisers will appear very pale and powerless.