▶Original preface: "Future Trends 100" ushers in a year full of possibilities. 2025 will be a year of paradoxes, where advanced technology meets digital disconnection, where the extravagance of trillionaires collides with the long-term challenges of cost-cutting and the “cost of living,” and where brands must find a delicate balance between resonance and restraint. Furthermore, it is time to prepare for a new reality – a higher level of imagined worlds created for us to live in, through our own imaginations and technology. As people face uncomfortable questions, they are actively creating a reality that makes sense to them – one that is imaginative and optimistic. This is an age of cocktail suspension, where technology can help us transcend the constraints of our bodies and everything we imagine can become a reality. This unrivaled report examines key trends across 14 different countries and features interviews with top industry experts and more. 2025 is a year full of possibilities. ▶Brand preface: In 2025, the snake will bring good luck! Every Spring Festival, VML Intelligence releases its "Future Trends 100" . This report is composed of 10 sections, 100 forward-looking keywords, and nearly a thousand innovative cases, making it the world's most valuable annual trend forecast report, not just one of them. Reading suggestions:
The 2022 report is only available in English, and the 2023 and 2024 Chinese versions are relatively concise. Brand Ape has used translation software and reorganized for three consecutive years (see previous articles). Fortunately, there is no Chinese version of the 2025 report so far, so you can get a sneak peek here! The entire report continues to be divided into 10 sections: "Culture", "Technology and Innovation", "Tourism and Vacation", "Brand and Marketing", "Food and Beverages", "Beauty", "Retail and Business", "New Luxury Life", "Health", and "Innovation", with 100 keywords and a total of 100,000 words. Take a look at these 100 exciting trends! Chapter 1: Culture The “Culture” section includes 10 keywords – 01. “Reality Shift” 02. “Emotional Grace” 03. “Sexy Renaissance” 04. “Work Resort” 05. “Dark Experience” 06. “Japan’s Soft Power” 07. “New Dating Paradigm” 08. “Reality Movement” 09. “Alternative Life” 10. “Super Forecaster”. 01 Reality Shift: Daydreaming, Delusion, and Optimism!Generation Z’s acceptance of a different “reality” is not an escape, but a declaration of hope in a chaotic world! In July 2024, Dazed magazine delved into the practice of "reality shifting," in which participants attempt to enter their desired reality through a shift in consciousness. These shifters use a variety of methods to experience alternative realities, which can be fictional worlds such as the Marvel Universe or the wizarding world of Harry Potter, or they can imagine ideal lives. In July 2024, Dazed magazine explored the practice of reality shifting, a behavior in which participants attempt to transfer their consciousness into a desired reality. Shifters use a variety of methods to experience alternative realities, which may be fictional worlds such as the Marvel Universe or the Harry Potter stories, or imagined ideal lives. The phenomenon has generated nearly 40 million related posts on TikTok and spawned several popular subreddits on Reddit by December 2024. Although it sounds like traditional daydreaming, its supporters believe it is more like a "manifestation." The concept of “manifestation” has been so popular in 2024 that it was even chosen as the word of the year by Cambridge Dictionaries. The dictionary noted that the idea of “making dreams come true” is spreading rapidly around the world. For example, pop singer Ariana Grande attributes part of her success to her “gift of manifestation.” In 2024, the media re-excavated a tweet from 2011 in which she mentioned her dream of playing Glinda in Wicked—a dream that has now become a reality. Globally, the desire for alternative realities is particularly pronounced among Generation Z. Data shows that 67% of Generation Z say they like to escape into a different reality through technology, compared to 58% of all age groups. Additionally, Gen Z is more likely to participate in role-playing or live-action role-playing (51% vs. 41% of the general population). This phenomenon is also reflected in cultural works, such as the A24 film "I Saw the TV Glow", in which teenagers escape the conflicts of real life by immersing themselves in the fictional world of television. The fascination with alternate realities has even permeated the creative world. Designers are using generative AI tools to push the boundaries of realism. Adobe’s 2025 Creative Trends report describes the “Fantasy Frontier” trend as “bringing the unreal to life,” further demonstrating the influence of this trend. What drives a generation to reimagine reality? VML Intelligence spoke with Dani Reyes, a psychometrician and researcher based in Manila, Philippines, and herself a member of Generation Z. Her TedX talk, How Generation Z’s “delulu delusion” culture affects their reality, has been viewed over 447,000 times on YouTube. The study reveals how Generation Z is stripping the word "delusional" from its clinical definition and reshaping it as a symbol of hope. Reyes notes that her generation possesses an “unwavering optimism” that leads them to believe “that things will get better, even when they lack concrete evidence to prove it.” This, she emphasizes, is not literal “delusion” or hallucination, but rather a strategy for coping with reality. Gen Z grew up in an era of economic, social and political challenges. Social media has given them aspirations for a better life, and they are trying to make those aspirations a reality. Reyes explains: "People just want a better life - to be able to rent an apartment, enjoy life, save money, travel, these are their most basic aspirations. I don't think these aspirations are too much." Hence the slogan of Gen Z, "delulu is the solulu" (delulu is the solution). This "delusional" culture is not only an escape, but also a positive way of psychological adjustment. It helps Generation Z find hope in a world full of uncertainty and inspires them to work hard to achieve their ideal life.
Accepting “delusions” is not blind but a highly intentional act: it is both a manifestation of optimism and a way to create a better future than the present through imagination or manifestation. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the future of Generation Z, VML data shows that they are the most optimistic generation, both now and in the future (see page 6 of the report for details). Reyes herself embodies this typical optimism. “As long as we’re here, I think we have a chance to experience something better,” she said. “I believe we’re going to see some kind of systemic change soon. It’s just a matter of when, not if.” Here, let us applaud Fu Hang's "PASSION", Yan Hexiang's "Balance" and Zhao Xiaohui's wonderful PPT! Their efforts are a vivid reflection of the optimism and action of Generation Z. Innovation opportunities: Gen Z’s embrace of “delulu” culture and reality shifting is essentially about optimism, not escapism . Brands can help by creating a better real-life future with them and for them, and ease their feelings of alienation by facilitating real-world connections and communities with their peers. 02 Elegant Mood: Warmth, Richness and Balance!A warm, rich and reassuring mood will be the main theme in 2025! Color experts are promoting low-key tones that evoke comfort, harmony and nature . These tones not only inject vitality into new color trends, but also provide new inspiration for brands and consumers. What the color masters think:
Innovation of coating brands: This year, Sherwin-Williams took a different tack, launching its first annual color capsule collection of nine shades. From the earthy "Grounded" to the warm off-white "Sunbleached, " the colors are rooted in neutrals and are both modern and balanced. Other paint brands have also chosen restorative and warm tones to capture the vibe of 2025:
Innovation opportunities: The mood of 2025 is set between rich and comfortable environments (think indulgent coffee or desserts) and sophistication and confidence (the embodiment of understated luxury). Brands can seize this trend and move away from maximizing glamour and bright bold colors to a warm and humble elegance experience. Here are some innovative directions:
In short, the color trend in 2025 is not only a redefinition of visual aesthetics, but also a profound response to emotional needs. Brands can create more warm, rich and balanced experiences for consumers by embracing this trend. 03 Sexy Renaissance: Sex and romance return with an inclusive perspectiveAlthough we live in what Harper's Bazaar calls the "unsexy age," pop culture is redefining sexiness in bold new ways. Music, movies, and novels are heating up, and sex and romance are returning to the public eye with a more inclusive and diverse perspective. Shifts in popular culture: Data shows that although the frequency of sexual life of modern people has declined, and even a study by the University of California, Los Angeles pointed out that Generation Z has little interest in sexual content on screens, after more than ten years of restraint, sexy culture is quietly reviving.
Diversified expressions of sexy culture: Behavioral psychologist Jo Hemmings notes that romantic regression is a form of escapism . "These fantasies often celebrate idealized or exaggerated forms of intimacy," she says, "such as perfectly choreographed encounters or relationships filled with chemistry, which are rarely achieved in the real world. This may point to unmet emotional needs, the impact of a rapidly changing world, and a recalibration of how intimacy is expressed and experienced." Inclusiveness and diverse perspectives <br />The resurgence of sexiness is not just a return to tradition, but a redefinition through an inclusive lens. A new generation wants to see their sexuality represented more broadly and presented through a lens other than the traditional male gaze. Romance fiction is giving more space to authors from all backgrounds to tell stories about atypical romantic relationships. Caden Armstrong, owner of Booklovers Bookshop in Edinburgh, describes it as “an incredibly diverse genre that highlights so many incredible voices and perspectives.” Innovation opportunities: The resurgence of sexy culture offers new opportunities for brands, but this time, it symbolizes empowerment, escape, autonomy and joy. Here are some innovative directions:
In short, the revival of sexy culture is not only a return to tradition, but also a redefinition of diversity, inclusiveness and individual expression. Brands can create more experiences full of emotional resonance and personalized expression for consumers by embracing this trend. 04 Working Resort: A Wellness Sanctuary and Community CenterFive-star offices are taking things a step further, evolving into wellness sanctuaries and purpose-driven community hubs. This transformation is not only redefining the workplace, it’s also providing employees with a more holistic life experience. The Park in New Jersey believes that the way work is done has fundamentally changed.
Springline, California: A resort-style work community. The article focuses on Springline in downtown Menlo Park, California, a destination-designed venue that includes two office buildings, a 183-unit residential building, nine restaurants and outdoor spaces. Opened in September 2023, Springline calls itself the "coolest new community," providing a resort-style campus where people can work, socialize and enjoy life. Drawing on the design concept of luxury hotels, Springline even has a signature scent that matches the hotel, and the management runs the neighborhood like a resort to create a unique experience. Hangzhou, China: A green and healthy office park of the future.
The future of the workplace: Prioritizing health and community. By prioritizing human health and purposeful communities, the workplace has evolved beyond the traditional concept of the office, aligning with the potential for work to play a positive role in people’s lives. According to research conducted by VML Intelligence in October 2023 (cited in Future 100: 2024), 86% of people worldwide say they enjoy a good work-life balance, and 93% believe that businesses should take more responsibility for the well-being of their employees. Innovation opportunities: Companies and developers are realizing that simply providing a workspace is no longer enough. In response, they are creating “office resorts” and vibrant communities. 05 Dark Experience: Horror, Release and Nightmare ImmersionIn chaotic times, pop culture is tapping into its darker side. Amid political unrest and climate deterioration, people are finding comfort in discomfort by seeking dark stories and experiences that are cathartic. Horror movies: A mirror reflecting social anxiety.
Terror as a coping mechanism, recreational fear is an “anxiety outlet”! Horror is not just a reflection of dark times, it is also a coping mechanism. Behavioral psychologist Jo Hemmings explains: "Horror movies are a very safe way to face the fear and anxiety of death, as well as the 'unknown' and 'social breakdown'." Coltan Scrivner, a behavioral scientist at the Leisure Fear Lab at Aarhus University in Denmark, also points out that leisure fear is "an outlet for anxiety." Experiencing fear in a safe space and a controlled environment allows fear to be explored without danger, thus creating a sense of control. In this way, horror movies are helping people deal with contemporary fears. It’s no coincidence that female-centric body horror films like The Material and Daredevil are on the rise in an era when there’s resistance to female empowerment. The rise of autobiographical stories and shifting cultural norms. From Netflix's Little Caribou to stand-up comedian Ed Byrne's one-man show Tragedy Plus Time, the rise of autobiographical stories about personal trauma, abuse, addiction, and loss points to shifting cultural norms and destigmatization. People are more willing to discuss difficult topics, which creates space for more authentic and nuanced portrayals of these experiences in the culture. "Using humor to explore painful or difficult issues can provide validation for people and help them gain understanding," Hemmings explains. Immersive dark experience: nightmare and surreal. At Mercer Labs Museum of Art and Technology in New York, an immersive art exhibition called Dark Matter invites visitors to step into their deepest fears and explore nightmares, inner demons and the paranormal through a high-tech 4D color-rendered haunted gallery. Artist and co-founder Roy Nachum said the exhibition "explores surreal and hypnotic themes of darkness and the human psyche and the unsettling realms of nightmares, inner demons and the paranormal." Immersing yourself in such a nightmare experience is a form of positive stress relief or entertainment, much like watching a horror movie, which releases adrenaline in a safe, controlled space. "Positive stress relief is the new healthy stress relief," Hemmings explains. "It's what you experience when you watch a horror movie or ride a roller coaster, you voluntarily allow yourself to be terrified." She believes this could offer brands a way to capitalize on darkness to engage consumers. A combination of branding and dark elements. For brands, horror elements offer a way to appeal to younger generations: In a 2023 study, VML found that nearly half of Gen Z in the UK, US and China believe horror-based entertainment experiences are therapeutic, compared to an average of just a third. For example, cookie brand Nutter Butter became popular on TikTok by leaning into horror elements; posts showing crime scenes smeared with peanut butter both frightened and delighted viewers. Innovation opportunities: Experiences that tap into the darker side offer people ways to process complexity, experience an adrenaline rush, and gain a sense of mastery by overcoming challenges. Brands often lean into dark elements only at Halloween, but leveraging positive stress can be an area of opportunity year-round. Here are some directions for innovation:
In short, dark experience is not only a form of entertainment, but also a way of emotional release and psychological adjustment. Brands can use this trend to create more unique and profound experiences for consumers while delivering positive emotional value. 06 Japan’s Soft Power: The Dual Rise of Culture and EconomyJapan's economy is on the rise, and its cultural capital is exerting a strong influence around the world. Morgan Stanley noted in June 2024 that Japan's economy "is undergoing a major transformation, with deflation ending, steady growth returning, and new vitality in business." Meanwhile, Japan's cultural power is also shining on the global stage. The pinnacle of cultural export: from Shogun to the anime boom. The Disney/FX series Shogun made history at the 2024 Emmy Awards and Creative Arts Emmy Awards, winning a record 18 awards. Set in 17th century Japan, with 70% of the dialogue in Japanese, the cast and crew brought together the creative elite of Japan and Hollywood, showcasing the rich heritage and global appeal of Japanese culture. The value of Japan’s content exports, mainly games, manga, anime, and movies, reached $29.5 billion, almost as much as semiconductor-related exports and even equal to the total amount of money all tourists are expected to spend in Japan in 2024. The Japan Times reported that many tourists travel to Japan inspired by these cultural exports. In June 2024, the Japanese government announced plans to quadruple the size of its overseas markets for video games, manga, and anime to 20 trillion yen ($130 billion) by 2033. The Cabinet Office described this soft power strategy as “an extremely effective means of ensuring that Japan can maintain its presence and influence on the global stage.” Animation: "Friends" for Generation Z. Anime's global appeal is growing. In 2024, Polygon called anime "the 'Friends' of Generation Z" because of its "huge influence on modern audiences, from what they wear to how they interact with those around them." To meet this growing demand, brands are tapping into its wide appeal. For example, McDonald's has successfully engaged a large number of fans by diving into the world of anime with its McDonald's campaign. "Anime is an important part of today's culture, and we're thrilled that fans have asked us to be a part of it over the years," said Tariq Hassan, Chief Marketing and Customer Experience Officer at McDonald's U.S. Luxury fashion house Louis Vuitton has also teamed up with Japanese contemporary artist Takashi Murakami to launch a joyful and vibrant collection on January 1, 2025. Murakami's work combines anime and fantasy to create colorful, eccentric and sometimes dark fashion. This new collection is expected to be as bold as Louis Vuitton's 2022 collaboration with Japanese artist Yayoi Kusama, when the brand's stores were occupied by her artistic aesthetic. The global impact of kawaii culture. Japan's cultural influence is not limited to anime and film, its "kawaii" (cute) culture has also had a profound impact around the world. In spring 2024, the "Kawaii" exhibition at Somerset House in London explores the global rise of Japanese kawaii pop culture and how its aesthetic has permeated everything from fashion and art to packaged goods and technology. The exhibition is held in collaboration with the Japanese company Sanrio to celebrate the 50th anniversary of its Hello Kitty character. The tourism industry is booming. Japan's tourism industry is also booming. According to Skift, Japan expects to receive 35 million tourists in 2024, with spending reaching $51 billion (8 trillion yen), exceeding the pre-pandemic peak of 31.88 million tourists in 2019. The government plans to increase the number of tourists to 60 million by 2030, with spending exceeding $96 billion (15 trillion yen). Osaka is even listed as one of the must-visit cities in 2025. Innovation opportunities: Japan’s current cultural boom is positioning the country as a source of global inspiration, and brands are jumping on board the “Cool Japan” train to tap into this cultural trend that is being widely embraced by generations around the world. 07 New dating model: from swiping to real face-to-face connectionAs interest in dating apps wanes, finding new ways to connect has become a trend. The traditional swipe match model is being replaced by more authentic and meaningful dating methods. The decline of dating apps: The novelty wears off. Swiping on dating apps to find your perfect match isn't the rage it once was. Data shows that only 22% of people open to dating have used a dating app in the past 12 months. CNN reports that Tinder downloads in the United States fell from a peak of 13.8 million in 2014 to 8.8 million in 2023. And in the UK, Ofcom's report shows that the four top dating apps - Tinder, Hinge, Bumble and Grindr - have lost hundreds of thousands of users. The 2024 analysis shows that "the novelty of dating apps is wearing off for young people, especially Gen Z." The trend is particularly evident among American college students. A 2023 Axios/Generation Lab survey found that 79% of American college and graduate students do not use any dating apps at all. Melanie Perez, a junior at Sam Houston State University, said: "I feel like dating apps have ruined the dating experience and self-confidence for a lot of people my age. I would rather meet and become friends first than use an app that is likely to end in a one-night stand." Back to tradition: connecting through shared interests. The somewhat utilitarian approach of dating apps is gradually being replaced by more traditional dating customs. For example, finding romance through shared interests (see Social Hobby Apps, page 56). The New York Times reports that "dating docs" are becoming a niche dating method among "tech workers and people living in major American cities." These long-form docs are described as "more akin to a personal ad in a newspaper than a profile on any algorithm-driven swipe app." The resurgence of face-to-face social interaction. According to a 2024 report from Eventbrite, data collected in the U.S. showed that as of April 2024, 376,000 people had booked and attended dating and singles events through the site, with more than 1.5 million searches for such events throughout the year. This trend toward face-to-face meetings is also reflected in China. China Daily reported that Generation Z is meeting their significant others through activities such as Frisbee, role-playing games and crafts. Innovative dating methods: from intimate dinners to diversified relationships. To keep up with this trend, dating apps are also evolving and broadening the ways they connect people, turning to helping users build all types of relationships. For example, Grindr, in its latest campaign “Come Home With Us,” highlights the many types of relationships that have been established through the app, from marriages to threesomes, from romance to friendship. As we all know, there is a way of playing in China called - Da Zi! Eating pairs, gaming pairs, gossip pairs, coffee pairs, travel pairs, dog walking pairs, cat and dog petting pairs, fitness pairs, outdoor pairs, sports pairs, nap pairs, postgraduate entrance examination pairs, civil service examination pairs, blind date pairs, weight loss pairs, script-killing pairs, exhibition viewing pairs..., it's dazzling and endless. This is a consumer community formed by people with similar interests as the expansion of interest-based social networking. It can also be said that this is a new, unique but not lonely, and actively chosen social relationship consumption. Innovation opportunities: Younger generations prefer to connect through face-to-face activities, while for older generations, building romantic or non-romantic relationships in a variety of ways is more important. Dating platforms are evolving to capture these multi-faceted relationship needs. Here are some innovative directions:
In short, the core of the new dating model is to return to real and meaningful connections. Brands and platforms can innovate ways to help users build relationships in a more natural and comfortable environment while meeting their needs for diversity and personalization. 08 Real Movement: Return to Reality, Fight against Digital FatigueIn the increasingly crazy rhythm of the digital world, "real movement" is becoming a counterattack force, helping people regain their balance and meaning in life. Digital fatigue and the desire for real interaction.
Global sentiment: A yearning for a simple life. The "Luder model" trend of the younger generation. The impact of “real sports”: from travel to socializing. This trend is changing the way people travel. A BBC article notes that urban sketching is on the rise— travelers spend a long time stopping to draw a specific destination. Urban Sketchers is a nonprofit that promotes live painting by organizing parties and travel and connects like-minded people. The Netherlands-based Offline Club invites people to hand in their phones during the event, promoting relaxation and meaningful connections with others in a digital disconnect. Offline Club’s motto is “Exchange screen time for real time.” The event takes place worldwide, from weekend getaways filled with nature walks and yoga to playing board games and diary in churches. The club was founded in 2022 with the hope of expanding its coverage from seven cities to 14. The book club has also been reimagined as a social event. In New York, Reading Rhythms has been described as “an unparalleled reading experience: one-hour reading per night, with a setting of live music and a well-curated venue.” The global spread of the “real movement” trend. This simulation trend is also reflected in China. According to the China Daily in October 2024, young Chinese people are turning to side jobs such as making ceramics and providing services ranging from singing courses to free writing, which offer “rich experiences and enhanced personal satisfaction”. In the UK, ceramics are also rising in popularity, as TV network ITV reports. Social Pottery is a network of pottery studios in the UK, with three locations in London and two in Milton Keynes, offering socially focused pottery parties and classes. According to the BBC, Needle Embroidery has a large number of celebrity fans, including Taylor Swift, Julia Roberts and Amy Adams. Susan Kay Williams, CEO of the Royal Embroidery School of England, told the BBC that she believes the popularity of embroidery stems from the COVID-19 lockdown: “Embroidery has seen a revival overall, and Needle Embroidery is a great starting point because the holes in the canvas can help you. In addition, the repetition of Needle Embroidery has a very meditative feeling.” Innovation Opportunities: More and more people are attracted by the state of flow that comes with “real movement.” Looking globally, being able to participate in purposeful physical activities is seen as an ideal and desirable way of life. Here are some innovative directions:
In short, the rise of "real sports" is not only a counterattack against digital fatigue, but also a pursuit of a real and meaningful life. Brands can help people regain their balance and fun in life by designing immersive and interactive simulation activities. 09 Alternative Life: New Women and New Life"Alternative Life" is redefining what women mean today. Motherhood has long been seen as the core of female identity, yet today, more and more women and non-binary people are redefining the way they build a fulfilling life. By choosing an “alternative life” – a core family that is not child or separated from tradition – they demonstrate the evolution of priorities, changes in society, and a conscious rejection of past periods. The decline in birth rates in wealthy countries confirms this cultural shift. While some women may not be able to have children due to environmental reasons, a considerable number are actively choosing a lifestyle that is not fertile. American academic research shows that this may account for more than a quarter of the total number of women. VML data shows that infertility choices have been widely recognized: 85% believe that choosing not to have children should be respected as a life choice. However, social stigma remains, rooted in linking the value of a woman to her fertility role and being ashamed of failing to achieve this role. Ruby Warrington, author of the book "Women Without Children", explained to VML Intelligence: "Although alternative family structures are becoming more common, this has triggered a backlash from conservatives." In Russia, for example, a proposed law would prohibit "propaganda" for supporting infertile lifestyles as a means to increase the birth rate of the country. "Childless Cat Lady" also became a political topic in last year's U.S. elections. Warrington believes that challenging these norms is crucial, and they pave the way for more diverse and inclusive family structures. On social media, many content creators are redefining the infertile lifestyle as a positive option. Creators such as Australia's Madalin Giorgetta, Canada's Dominique Baker, New Zealand's Danni Duncan and the United States' Abigail Porter are quickly attracting a group of female audiences eager to be represented. The Alternative Life movement is not just about rejecting motherhood, it is about embracing other ways to build meaningful connections and support networks. Women find satisfaction in deep friendships, chosen families and platonic partnerships. The video of divorcee Jenny Hensley's popularity on TikTok shows the arrangements she lives with her extended family and friends, and is an example of this trend. Her story resonates with millions, highlighting the desire for communities and connections beyond traditional core families. Platonic parenting has also attracted attention. People — whether they are opposite, same-sex, or friends — consciously decide to co-birth or raise children outside of traditional family structures. Modamily is an app that allows users to connect with sperm or egg donors or potential co-parenting partners, with the tagline “New Way to the Family.” In an era when 83% of women believe that single and without a traditional family life is acceptable, 80% believe that close friends can perform family roles like blood relatives, indicating a modern attitude toward relationships. The rise of “alternative life” represents a powerful shift in how women define themselves and build their lives. As more and more women embrace “alternative life,” they are not only redefining their families, but also reshaping society itself. Innovation Opportunities: According to 68% of women worldwide, “The brands I buy largely reflect who I am and who I am. ” Brands must adapt to and reflect the diversity of women’s lives, recognize and celebrate their choices. Marketing, product development and service delivery need to go beyond the core family model and embrace the inclusiveness of “alternative life.” 10 Super ForecastersPredicting the future is a well-designed business, and in this regard, humanity is still ahead of artificial intelligence. From global conflicts, election results to stock prices and economic fluctuations, super forecasters are at the forefront of change. Super forecasters are those with outstanding track record of accurate predictions, providing valuable advice to individuals, businesses and governments on future opportunities and challenges. Prediction is to "consider the uncertain future" probabilistic thinking. Warren Hatch, CEO of Super Forecasting Agency Good Judgment, explained to VML Intelligence that prediction is “probabilistic thinking about an uncertain future.” Driven by science and data, “the role of a super forecaster boils down to two things: provide the accurate digital predictions as possible and provide context for that number so that we can understand the drivers, the risks ahead, and the key factors that need to be tracked.” The Economist evaluated Good Judgment's 2024 forecast, which showed it scored 4.5 out of 8. Some accurate forecasts include the results of the UK election, the absence of conflict between China and the Quad-alliance nations, and the ongoing of the Ukrainian-Russian war. Although the predictions of the super forecasters are not all accurate, their overall performance can stand the test of time. Will predictive AI surpass super forecasters? Artificial intelligence (AI) may become a challenger in this field because it can also be predicted through predictive AI. By combining machine learning and data analytics, it can be "generated" in the future through pattern recognition, trend analysis and outlier detection. Moreover, AI's capabilities are constantly improving—in the summer of 2024, researchers at MIT developed a new approach called IF-COMP, claiming to improve uncertainty estimation in machine learning models. Will predictive AI surpass super predictors? "Maybe - it's a prediction in itself," Hatch muses. "But the data so far is very clear: Professor Philip Tetlock and his colleagues have tested many of these models and none of them perform as well as human super predictors." Still, Hatch believes that in the long run, it won't be a "human-to-machine" competition, but "a hybrid of humans and machines, we see the greatest hope of getting the best prediction faster." New Future: Human-machine Hybrid Mode. What brings this hybrid to reality is Third Round Analytics Capital (TRAC), a California-based company that focuses on predicting the next unicorn business. By combining machine learning and super forecasters’ capabilities, TRAC said it was “founded to provide founders with a more efficient financing process that enables investments to take place quickly and without hassle.” The company was officially launched in 2020 and has since claimed to have made more than 100 investments in various tech sectors. Innovation Opportunities: The forecasting business is good for everyone, and it ultimately is about planning. Hatch believes that most businesses have untapped potential : “Super forecasters are everywhere, but most of them are still undiscovered gems. All organizations should recognize and develop their talents and get the best wisdom from their teams.” [To be continued] The complete report in English can be downloaded and viewed on the official website of Wunderman Thompson! |
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