As we enter the second half of 2023, how should we plan our video accounts?

As the value of video account live broadcast gradually becomes more prominent, how can relevant practitioners who want to enter the video account layout in the second half of 2023? How can we interpret the current video account ecology? In this article, the author expresses his views. Let's take a look together, which may be helpful to you.

01

Strictly speaking, the commercialization of Video Account has only been around for more than a year, and it is only now that it has really begun to snowball.

Last year’s 618 was a landmark event, representing the rise of live streaming sales on video accounts.

Before this, the entire 2021 video account live broadcast was actually in an exploratory stage. The infrastructure was not perfect, the native bloggers were very confused, and the bloggers who could make money mainly relied on knowledge payment.

At the beginning of 2022, the value of video live broadcast began to emerge, and many people tasted the sweetness of bringing goods. After 618 in 2022, mid-level players of Douyin began to enter the market on a large scale, accompanied by various black five types of gameplay and wild routines.

Therefore, in the second half of last year, Video Account Live Streaming entered a period of rapid iteration, launched Video Account Stores, opened up a service provider system, and improved all aspects of live streaming and stores.

In the first half of this year, Video Account Stores began to move towards a Douyin-like mall model, stepped up the rectification and dredging of merchants, strengthened labels, iterated e-commerce capabilities, and made products searchable. So far, a complete live broadcast business operating system has taken shape, and Video Account has also formed a forked operating model.

The so-called bifurcated operation means that the video account content is becoming more and more like the official account, encouraging originality, rewarding traffic, and supporting players with unique styles. The content distribution model is a combination of attention, social interaction, and recommendation, which is more WeChat-like. In fact, the video account live broadcast is becoming more and more like Douyin, because the essence of the video account live broadcast is the distribution of e-commerce traffic, and the path is very clear. Like the traditional commercial street, it is a sales floor. It has good operating rules and then attracts players from different tracks to join the game. Everyone grabs traffic and generates transactions in their own way.

Of course, the final winner will definitely be WeChat.

The bifurcated operation model is actually content on the left hand and e-commerce on the right hand. WeChat needs to find a balance between the two. On the surface, Video Account is definitely a content consumption platform, but in reality, its greatest value is e-commerce.

We have also observed that Video Account is vigorously supporting original content, with the aim of highlighting its brand advertising value like the official account. This is something that Video Account cannot lose because it is its foundation.

But at the root, it is e-commerce that is the one that directly generates monetization and releases super value.

Therefore, we will see a very interesting imagination, that is, if you want to invest in video accounts, there are actually two modes. The first is the WeChat Beans mode, which actually serves the video account live broadcast and forwards pure video account ecological traffic. The second is ADQ, which is the Tencent advertising model. ADQ connects the entire Tencent ecosystem and is more like traditional advertising.

For creators in the video account ecosystem, there are two ways to make money. One is to create content purely and make a living by taking advertisements. They are mainly the native bloggers of the video account. The other is to engage in live streaming and selling goods, with content being just a small supporting feature. They are mainly mid-level creators from Douyin.

Up to now, people or accounts that can perfectly integrate content and live broadcasting are actually scarce on video accounts. Although some have begun to show signs of success this year, there are not many of them. Such people will be the brand merchants of the future video account ecosystem and the beneficiaries of long-term profits.

At this point, we can almost get to the point of today. In the second half of 2023, how will the video account develop? How should we make decisions?

Before answering this question, we must first firmly establish two points of view:

The first is that Video Account is the last train of live streaming e-commerce. There is no objection to this. You either make your layout quickly or miss it and it will have nothing to do with you in the future.

The second is the development of video accounts, which must be slow, like a frog in boiling water, and move forward step by step. Impatient people cannot do a good job of video accounts, and they cannot do it. In the past three years, countless people have poured in, and most of them chose to leave in the end, and then they all came to the conclusion that it is a chicken rib, tasteless and a pity to throw away. But there is one thing, if you can hold it well and keep sucking it, you can actually taste the meat.

Based on the above two viewpoints, we predict:

If you are doing content, that is, planning the video account IP, there will actually be dividends from now until the first half of next year, because although the content of the video account is already very rich, there are few phenomenal content, which means that it still has a lot of traffic that can be released, so there will continue to be a window period of about a year.

If you are doing live broadcasting, the logic of live broadcasting is people, goods and places. The obvious labels now are popular labels such as body aesthetics, beauty and daily chemicals, jewelry and jade, snacks and dry goods, home appliances and digital products. In fact, the labels of many subdivided fields have not been fully opened yet, and it will take about a year and a half.

At the same time, all practitioners clearly feel that most of the users who purchase video accounts are middle-aged and elderly people, who are actually the first batch of customers. The real big customers will eventually be dominated by middle-aged and young people, and the rest will return to the mean.

In other words, the video account has not yet reached the explosive stage, but can only be said to be in the climbing stage.

We at @haoyansuo believe that it actually takes a lot of time to cultivate users’ purchasing habits. It will take about a year and a half, which is the end of next year, for video account live streaming to truly explode.

Of course, such a prediction is also related to the current environment. The overall environment is actually weak and needs to be further stimulated for consumption. The premise of consumption is income. With the recovery of the economy, a large number of unemployed middle-aged people and recent graduates who cannot find jobs will definitely choose to start a business, which is passive entrepreneurship.

So the question is, starting a business is inseparable from rolling in traffic and becoming a digital nomad. Video accounts are the most fertile ground for rolling in traffic in the entire Chinese Internet world, and are also a paradise for digital nomads.

In our view, the explosion of video accounts is related to their own development level on the one hand, and to changes in the overall environment on the other. 2024 is a year for small entrepreneurs to go all out, so the second half of 2023 is actually preparation, launching, entering the game, testing, and adjusting the mindset.

The next six months will be another six months of rapid growth for Video Account. Once its basic foundation is stabilized, it will move forward very quickly.

The recently released "Basic Tutorial for Video Account Merchants to Start Scaling" clarifies the direction of competition in bringing goods. Traffic is there, and whoever has talent, strength, and contribution to the ecosystem will have traffic. The white-hot internal competition is imminent, and more players will join the game, because the goal is clear and the money spent is also clear.

The next six months will definitely be the golden entry period for video account live streaming.

It is beyond doubt that the mid-tier players of Tik Tok and Kuaishou are either planning to launch video live streaming or on the way to it. However, the top players there are still intact. The reason is very simple. These people are already the rich and powerful there. If they come here, they have to start from scratch. The migration cost is too high.

Therefore, it is foreseeable that in the next six months or even two years, there will be a period of scarcity of top players in the video account.

In other words, if you work hard now, you will have the opportunity to become a top player in the future, because there are few top players now, so you have a great chance. But when the top players in each vertical track gather together, you basically have no chance.

So people who know the business should understand what I am saying. It is true that you think it is difficult to make a video account now, but there is still a chance to make a lot of money. It is also true that you will find it difficult to make a video account in the future, but there is no chance to make a lot of money, because the class is solidified and you can't get in.

02

So, how do we proceed next?

We believe that it is necessary to be a blogger who can combine IP content to promote products.

In other words, if you just create content and earn some advertising fees, there is no problem, but it is only a little bit. It is okay to support yourself, but it is not easy to expand.

If you are a pure live broadcast player, you may be thriving now, but you may be swallowed up or squeezed out by larger paying players in the future, because the competition is very clear, it is nothing more than who has the lower price, who has a more professional anchor, and who is more willing to contribute money to the ecosystem.

From this perspective, pure sellers can make good money in the past two years, but in the long run, it is difficult for them to have a future. The reason is very simple. Throughout the history of the Internet, players without moats cannot survive for long.

The players who can really reap the platform dividends and survive the cycle must be those who can produce continuous high-quality content, do a good job in supply chain, and can live broadcast stably. This means that such players must be a team with content operators, live broadcast operators, and supply chain operators, and they must also be willing to spend money.

If you are careful enough, you can take a look at the cases recently promoted by the official public account. In fact, they are bloggers who can perfectly combine content IP, supply chain and live broadcast. They must be the powerful class of the future of this ecosystem.

Having said that, you should know how to plan your video account next.

If you want to make a little money or catch a wave, or you are an individual or a small team selling products through short videos or pure live streaming, there is still a chance. Choose those tracks with clear labels and start selling products directly.

If you want to create an IP that can stand out, it is not too late to do it now, at least it is not too late to enter this year, but you need a team. The success rate will be very low if you are alone, because it is not just about content, but also about people, goods and places.

But if you want to make a lot of money and run a small and medium-sized enterprise that makes stable profits, you have to solve the three major problems ABC and then quickly take advantage of the trend.

Author: Director

Source: No. Research Institute (ID: nft798)