In 2024, what will long videos compete on?

In 2024, as the industry is turbulent and audience tastes are changing, the author points out that long videos will focus on three major development directions: competing for big dramas, increasing new volume, and rolling out AI.

"Where are the audiences going? What are the audiences watching?"

Producer Qiqi found that the long video industry had a mediocre start in 2024, with no hit dramas or variety shows, and "the performance of the top dramas on several platforms was not ideal."

Changes can also be seen at the data level. Compared with the record-breaking popularity of dramas such as "Mountains and Seas", "The Son-in-law", "Sito", "The Beginning", and "Kuang Biao" in previous years, which were passed on by word of mouth in the circle of friends, there has not been a hit work since the beginning of 2024. A senior film and television data practitioner believes that "although there are many works with more than 10,000 popularity on the platform, these works are not as good as the same period in previous years in terms of comprehensive popularity and reputation."

As a reality-themed drama, this year's "Coming from South to North" has a highest popularity of 9732.32 on Maoyan, slightly lower than the 9746.66 of "The World" in 2022. In terms of word of mouth, the latter has a Douban score of 8.4, while the former has a score of 7.2.

Zhao Liying and Yang Zi, two actresses who can carry a lot of dramas, failed to bring the market to a head. The costume drama "The Journey of Flower", also directed by Deng Ke, received the highest popularity of 9852.52 on Maoyan on the second day of its broadcast thanks to the three words "Zhao Liying", but the subsequent popularity declined. The highest popularity of "The Son-in-law" in 2021 was similar to that of "The Journey of Flower", but it became more and more popular as it aired. The idol drama "The Story of Joy", starring Yang Zi, maintained a Maoyan popularity of around 9,000 during its broadcast, but its Douban score was just passing, at only 6.2.

It is hard to find a top hit, and the mid-level segment dramas are also weak. After cooling down since 2022, few people mentioned it this year. More than one film producer told "Dingjiao" that the support for segment dramas on major platforms varies greatly. The audience level of segment dramas on some platforms is very low and they can't be broadcast at all. Qiqi personally felt that many segment dramas can only get 2 million to 4 million in the first month, and the first month is usually the golden period of the project's segment revenue. In the past, 3 million was already a very bad number.

Many practitioners believe that on the one hand, it is due to the content, and the hits are accidental. On the other hand, it is related to the fact that short dramas represented by mini-program dramas have attracted a lot of audiences. Many producers and directors around them who have produced big hits in the past two years are now shooting short dramas.

However, there are also many positive signals in the long video industry. One of the most obvious signs is that platforms represented by iQiyi have achieved annual profits.

Each company has more consistent standards for good content. The approval rate for production starts has increased, IP development has become a standard feature of major dramas, and the pace of film and television + culture and tourism and overseas expansion has also been gradually accelerated.

AI is also seen as a new trend. Although major long video platforms have revealed that compared with short videos, the impact of AI on the long video industry is not that great at present, and technology can never replace the human brain in artistic creation, it cannot stop everyone from making plans, on the one hand to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and on the other hand to bet on its long-term impact on the industry.

In 2024, the film and television industry will face both crises and opportunities. As new formats such as short dramas stir up the industry and audiences’ tastes change, what preparations have long videos made? What are they preparing to fight for?

1. Competing for big dramas: Profits come first, and people are only willing to spend money to get good works

In the past two years, the capital market has shifted its focus from scale to profitability, and long-form video platforms have also begun a series of actions to reduce costs and increase efficiency. More than one industry insider and platform-related person said that in 2024, the primary goal of major long-form video platforms will still be profitability, and the main strategy is to concentrate human and material resources on content and focus on top dramas.

"Although each company still has a lot of inventory, a considerable portion of them are bad dramas, so this year everyone's broadcast schedule is to mix some relatively new top dramas with inventory dramas," said senior producer Tornado.

He told Dingjiao that now all major platforms are willing to pay high prices to grab good works. There was a work supervised by a famous director, and the price of a single episode directly increased by more than 2 million during the bidding process among several platforms. He also said that last year, in order to grab talents and good projects, a certain platform offered very friendly conditions to producers, with almost no advance payment (the producers did not have to spend money to shoot first), and the custom drama production fee reached 20%, which was almost twice as high as other platforms.

What is a top drama? Although different platforms have different definitions, practitioners say that they all lead to the same conclusion.

For example, iQiyi's content types are in a pyramid structure, with commercial films at the bottom, accounting for 85%, the second layer is valuable expression, that is, the platform's temperament, accounting for 10%; the third layer is the big IP that continues to form a brand, accounting for 4%, and the final fourth layer of 1% is epic works. Tencent Video proposed the three pillars of good content: first, the continuous development of big IPs with a broad mass base; second, co-branded works by great artists; and third, rare treasures in the content field.

In the opinion of a senior film critic, these have essentially always been the industry-recognized standards for good dramas, but there were differences in the past due to the need for differentiation on the platforms and the differences in production capabilities and talent pools of each company.

The "bigness" of the top dramas is also reflected in the fact that all major platforms attach importance to IP development and online and offline linkage.

It can be simply understood that after the audience becomes a member and watches a drama, they continue to pay/spend time on the derivative content of the drama.

Common IP derivative content on major video platforms includes drama, film and variety show linkage, as well as derivatives, offline real-life experiences, etc. Wang Xiaohui, Chief Content Officer of iQiyi, said last year that their "one fish, many ways to kill" model has worked, and iQiyi has found a third leg after membership and advertising revenue.

Generally speaking, this kind of IP development will be advanced. An industry insider told "Dingjiao", for example, first shoot a TV series, and then use the same scene to shoot a live-action interactive video game and online movie. However, this form is mostly invested by large companies and platforms, and it is difficult for small companies to do it.

The insider revealed that a live-action interactive film and game produced by a large-scale production cost more than 10 million yuan, but ultimately did not make any money, but the platform was willing to make such an attempt. Entertainment investor Wang Chen said that the successful development of IP serialization is an important sign that the domestic film and television industry has entered the industrial age from a small workshop, but no mature serialized products have been seen so far.

In the past two years, the mid-level content below the top-level content has been mainly supported by shared-revenue dramas, but the degree of importance attached to them varies among the platforms.

A producer of a revenue-sharing drama told "Dingjiao" that many platforms no longer support revenue sharing. Since the major platforms have adjusted the revenue-sharing rules in 2022, she feels that the money she can get has been reduced by 80%. This year is even worse, and she can't even invest in the flow. How many people can make money from it? She feels that it has changed from a 28 rule to a 19 rule, and she is no longer considering doing it this year.

Longjuanfeng believes that although some platforms attach importance to shared-revenue dramas, it is no longer feasible to produce them according to the original idea of ​​long dramas. "Now the shared-revenue is moving towards short content with a 20-minute episode, weekly updates, and a faster pace." Wang Chen is also optimistic about the development of shared-revenue short dramas, believing that it is the most market-oriented business model in film and television dramas.

2. New volume: Explore cultural tourism + film and television, and focus on overseas business

From Dali in "Where the Wind Runs" to Huanghe Road in Shanghai in "Flower City", there is at least one TV series that makes a city or a street popular almost every year. Strictly speaking, cultural tourism + film and television is also a kind of IP derivative, but it has been particularly lively in the past two years.

Now is the golden period for the development of cultural tourism. Zhao Bin, general manager of Chengdu Xingwen Investment Development Co., Ltd., told "Dingjiao" that in the past two years, both platforms and related film and television companies have found local cultural tourism departments for cooperation, and local cultural tourism departments have also taken the initiative. Major video platforms have opened cultural tourism business cooperation departments, and cultural tourism departments have also opened up film and television sections.

Film and television + cultural tourism are upgrading. Previously, it was common to leverage marketing. For example, after a film or TV series became popular, the local government took advantage of the popularity to promote it, but the two sides did not have a deeper cooperation. "Flowers" in Shanghai and "Where the Wind Runs" in Dali are both of this type. It has gradually developed into IP derivatives, that is, the platform authorizes the IP to the local cultural tourism department to cooperate and create film and television blocks, cultural and creative products, etc. Now there is a new way, that is, the two sides start to cooperate from the source and plan a certain film and television work/IP in combination with local cultural and tourism characteristics.

Zhao Bin revealed that they are currently in early stage cooperation communication with Tencent Video on offline cultural tourism development of "Douluo Continent", and are also investing in and producing some short dramas. In terms of cooperation model, there will also be bundling, such as the local government will bear a certain amount of drama costs, or cut part of the shares of scenic spot operation to the platform partner. He found that now everyone realizes the value of planning first.

In the past two years, major video platforms have made considerable moves in going overseas, especially as the number of domestic video members has exceeded 100 million and growth is difficult. Faced with the increase or decrease of millions of members every quarter, the platforms must find new growth, and overseas has become a major option.

In the 2023 earnings conference call, iQiyi CEO Gong Yu pointed out that overseas business is a potential growth point. More than one industry insider also said that going overseas is definitely a very important path for video platforms.

At present, there are roughly three modes for long video platforms to export their content overseas. The first is to export directly, that is, to translate their own popular dramas and variety shows into local languages ​​and send them to overseas platforms or their own international versions. The second is to cooperate with local platforms to jointly produce, make or use local actors to make a work, which is equivalent to customizing it for overseas and cannot be seen in China. Another is that the domestic copyright is directly purchased by overseas, such as "Sisters Riding the Wind and Waves Vietnam Edition".

Customization is currently one of the important means for video platforms to expand into overseas markets. This year, Tencent Video and Youku both launched idol development programs for non-mainland markets. The former's "Creation Camp Asia" was held in Thailand, while the latter's "Asia Super Star Group" was created by Youku and TVB.

Veteran variety show producer Li Yang said that idol auditions are the most profitable type of all current variety shows.

"In China, core mentors can be paid tens of millions," he said. A related practitioner who has worked on a large talent show also told "Dingjiao" that the platform will also give money to contestants, and each contestant will get different amounts depending on their popularity. "Because of the different brokerage companies behind them, there will be 40 to 50 brokerage companies involved among 100 contestants, and each brokerage company mainly discusses contracts in this regard with the platform."

Even though the cost is very high, such programs still make money and have revenue from advertisers. For example, the total sponsorship revenue of "Creation Camp Asia" alone broke the previous investment record of the entire Thai variety show market, and the artists in the back end also earn a lot of money. Li Yang feels that the cost of overseas artists is low, so it is more profitable to do such programs.

However, the platform is still in the stage of trial and error with regard to going overseas, and the investment cost is relatively low. The cost of Produce Camp Asia is much lower than that in China, which can also be seen from the number of staff. It is reported that the editing staff of Produce Camp Asia is less than 20, while the post-editing staff of Produce Camp in China can reach 70 or 80.

3. Volume AI: Using technology to speed up, but not yet reaching the creative level

Technology is something that long video platforms have repeatedly mentioned in the past two years. As early as 2019, major platforms used technology to regulate industry development and implemented the industrialization of film and television. One is to improve the speed and transparency of the production process, and the other is to improve the accuracy of project prediction and reduce the failure rate. At this year's iQiyi World Conference, iQiyi also demonstrated how to use AI to improve the efficiency of planning, production, publicity and other links.

The film and television industry technologies that are currently developing rapidly are mainly in process management and shooting.

For example, the industrialized production systems of various platforms unify the management of a series of processes such as online approval, shooting progress, and finance, as well as frame-sharing digital production and virtual shooting, which also replace part of the real scene or green screen. Youku’s recently unveiled integrated production and film and television vehicle replaces the function of the crew’s on-site tent.

Many practitioners said that although these technologies can play a certain role and solve problems such as the difficulty of shooting fantasy scenes and the difficulty of post-production, the current usage rate is relatively low. In many cases, the effect that the director wants cannot be achieved, so unless there are special requirements, they prefer real shooting.

AI has been a new trend in the past two years, especially the emergence of the foreign cultural video tool Sora, which has caused panic among some domestic film and television practitioners. Major long video platforms are also involved in AI, and specific products such as AI digital humans and AI-generated buildings have appeared.

At present, AI applications in the film and television industry have covered four major areas: text, images, sound, and video, involving planning, production, publicity , and user search. Users can not only find the dramas and movies they want to watch by entering the title in the search bar of the video platform, but also enter details such as roles, plots, and stars to obtain a series of related content, which to a certain extent also extends the user's usage time.

However, the development and application of AI by domestic long video platforms are mainly concentrated in some small points to improve the efficiency of creators and users, and have not yet reached the level of subversion. Many producers and platform owners said that AI is still in the initial small-scale trial stage in the film and television industry. In all aspects, the most frequently used is still publicity and promotion. For example, using AI to quickly generate poster materials has not yet touched the core creative layer of film and television.

Wang Chen believes that the exploration of AI is highly dependent on big data and financial resources. Therefore, the degree of integration between the film and television industry and AI also depends more on the self-exploration and support of several platforms and the large companies behind them.

Currently, major long video platforms are still in the race, working hard to develop content-related AI technologies and betting on long-term changes in the industry.

A new round of competition has begun, and the competition for long videos in 2024 will remain fierce.

*The pictures in this article are from Weibo. At the request of the interviewees, Qiqi and Tornado are pseudonyms.

Author: Wang Lu, Editor: Wei Jia

WeChat public account: Dingjiao (ID: dingjiaoone)