Live streaming saves itself, Tianya is unlikely to become the next Dongfangzhenxuan

Tianya started live streaming to sell goods, but the effect was not ideal. How can the commercialization of content communities be solved? Let's read the article together and see the author's interpretation!

Recently, Xing Ming, the founder of Tianya Community, disclosed a series of "self-rescue plans" of Tianya Community in an interview, and planned to start live broadcast on New Year's Day.

In April last year, after the Tianya Community experienced an "Internet disconnection" incident, it triggered a wave of memories, causing many netizens to sigh.

On May 28, former Tianya employee Song Zheng and senior netizens started a live broadcast called "Restart Tianya" with a target of 3 million yuan. However, due to lack of experience, live broadcast accidents occurred frequently, "no sound, no host, and unclear products." The final result was not ideal. The sales of the "Restart Tianya" live broadcast for seven days and seven nights was only 360,000 yuan.

The restart of Tianya Community is naturally exciting news for old users of Tianya. However, the self-rescue plan mentioned by Tianya founder Xing Ming seems to be an attempt to copy Dongfang Zhenxuan. With the turmoil between Dongfang Zhenxuan and Dong Yuhui, is it still feasible for Tianya, which was once "paralyzed", to save itself through live e-commerce?

1. Is Tianya’s self-rescue plan feasible?

The self-rescue plan revealed by Tianya founder Xing Ming in an interview can be roughly divided into three parts.

The first part is live streaming e-commerce. Tianya is gearing up to enter the market. It has not only established a company and registered the "Tianya Zhenxuan" trademark, but is also incubating its own anchors and preparing to cooperate with a professional live streaming operation team.

In the self-rescue plan, Tianya’s official live broadcast initially prepared to create content, inviting former Tianya big names, moderators, etc. to discuss hot events in order to awaken the public’s memory of the Tianya IP.

Tianya's "Restart" live broadcast source Douyin screenshot

In terms of product selection, Tianya plans to launch some books and cultural products recommended by famous authors from Tianya, launch social travel services around Hainan, Hainan specialty products, and operate cross-border duty-free consumer products. "Quality" and "Hainan" are the two keywords for Tianya to do live e-commerce.

The second part is to divert traffic to the membership-based e-commerce platform. Tianya plans to build a membership-based e-commerce platform, which is different from the shelf e-commerce model. It will first focus on selected items, and then gradually develop self-operated products after stabilization. It will also launch an official version of "Tianya Shentie" as one of the membership-based products.

The third part is a more distant business plan. Tianya plans to launch a new duty-free e-commerce model after 2025 in combination with offline, and use Tianya's rich library of novels and copyrights to transform them into short dramas.

In a word, it is to transform into live streaming e-commerce first like New Oriental, combine Tianya's cultural genes to launch cultural and tourism products and consumer products, and then leverage Tianya's content and geographical advantages to restart commercialization after the live streaming is stable, and make short dramas, build platforms, and engage in duty-free e-commerce.

From the perspective of live streaming, can Tianya achieve a successful transformation like Dongfang Zhenxuan?

Image source: Tik Tok screenshot

In terms of timing, it is not wise to choose to enter the live streaming e-commerce in early 2024. Tianya has missed two traffic booms from 2018 to 2019 and 2020.

The rapid growth period of live e-commerce was from 2018 to 2019. The industry market size of live e-commerce increased from 133 billion yuan in 2018 to 433.8 billion yuan in 2019, maintaining a high growth rate of more than 200% for two consecutive years.

The black swan event in 2020 brought dividends to the "stay-at-home economy", with e-commerce transaction volume exceeding one trillion yuan and the number of viewers exceeding 50 billion.

Many top anchors have achieved outstanding results this year. Data shows that as of December 21, 2020, the top 1,000 anchors in the total GMV list of the entire network have brought in a total of 255.7 billion yuan in sales, Wei Ya's sales reached 31.09 billion yuan, Li Jiaqi's sales were 21.86 billion yuan, and Luo Yonghao's Make Friends live broadcast room started in 2020 and brought in 1.97 billion yuan in sales within a year. Dongfang Zhenxuan started to bring in goods at the end of 2021, which can be regarded as catching the tail of the "stay-at-home economy" dividend.

After the full-scale outbreak in 2021 and 2022, the scale of the live e-commerce industry has reached one trillion in 2023, and the growth rate and penetration rate have been slowing down year by year. Tianya, which chooses to enter the market at this time, will face a red ocean where the traffic dividend will be exhausted and competition will be fierce.

Secondly, Tianya Live’s content-oriented ideas and direction are correct. Both Xiao Yangge and Dong Yuhui have attracted a large number of fans with their unique content. In the future, the content-oriented live broadcast will also become a trend.

However, Tianya moderators and users are more familiar with text-based content, and may find it difficult to quickly adapt to the live broadcast format facing the camera.

The guests who were connected to the "Restart Tianya" live broadcast room once told the media that many of them have rarely used social platforms and are not proficient in online operations. "People who were active on Tianya Forum in the past tended to express themselves in words and were not necessarily good at communication and speaking."

Even if different guests evoke the public's memory of Tianya IP, it is difficult for Tianya officials to bring out a "star anchor" with their own traffic. Unlike Dongfang Zhenxuan, which has a large number of teacher resources, the lack of talent will be another pain point on Tianya's road to "self-rescue".

The third pain point is the users. The audience of live e-commerce does not overlap much with the old Tianya users. Members of the "Restart Tianya" team mentioned in an interview that the old users who enter Tianya's live broadcast room are mainly male, mainly those born in the 1970s and 1980s.

According to the "2023 Live Streaming E-Commerce Opportunity Insight Report", as an interest-based e-commerce platform, Douyin's user profile is mainly composed of female users, with the majority being young users born in the 1980s and 1990s, and the highest growth rate among those born after 1995.

To sum up, it is hard to be optimistic about the first step of Tianya’s “self-rescue plan”, “transformation into live streaming e-commerce”.

2. Not everyone can become a member of the Oriental Selection

In Tianya Community’s “self-rescue plan”, the models of live streaming e-commerce, developing cultural and tourism products, and building a membership platform are all imitations of New Oriental’s transformation ideas, but the facts have proved that not everyone can become Oriental Selection.

Oriental Selection officially entered the live streaming e-commerce at the end of 2021. From June 2022 to May 2023, Oriental Selection's annual live streaming GMV reached 10 billion.

Take Xueersi as an example. In November 2022, New Oriental Xueersi also started live streaming to sell goods, also focusing on agricultural products + all categories. After the Oriental Selection incident, the account @学而思优品 has gained more than 800,000 followers so far. According to public data, from December 11 to 18, the sales of @学而思优品's live broadcast room reached 2.5 million to 5 million yuan.

Image source: Tik Tok screenshot

However, due to the late start of live streaming, small number of fans, and limited influence of the anchor, even though the Xueersi account is at the "forefront", its live streaming sales are still quite far behind those of Oriental Selection.

Gaotu Jiapin, founded by Chen Xiangdong, a former New Oriental executive and CEO of Gaotu, who has worked with Mr. Yu Minhong for more than 14 years, is also an example.

Gaotu Jiapin and Dongfang Zhenxuan have even more similarities. The cartoon head of the founder on the account background page, the layout and product selection of the live broadcast room, and the anchor style are all very similar. The product selection is mainly fresh food and snacks, as well as clothing and daily necessities. At the same time, it also operates a part of its own products.

Image source: Tik Tok screenshot

Gaotu also focuses on combining knowledge live broadcast with talent live broadcast. The host Haotian is a Chinese teacher, and is called "Gaotu Guo Qilin" by fans. He tells crosstalk and jokes in the live broadcast room. For example, when selling pork ribs, he will bring a crosstalk by Zhang Fei to the audience. He will also teach some Chinese knowledge in the live broadcast room, such as "How to write the beginning of an essay" and "How to learn to write from a poet", etc. He is loved by netizens because of his humorous and practical style.

Due to the impact of the "Dong Yuhui's essay incident", on December 16, Gaotu Jiapin's fans increased to 617,000, and sales were about 10-25 million. Now Gaotu Jiapin's fans have exceeded 2 million, and the average number of online viewers of live broadcasts has basically stabilized. At present, Gaotu Jiapin still has a lot of room for growth and potential, but in the short term, it will be difficult for Gaotu Jiapin to compete with Dongfang Zhenxuan as a competitor.

Doshin Selection, a subsidiary of Doshin Education that switched to live streaming, has long been discontinued. Doshin Education chose to start live streaming on the CEO account which has a certain fan base, and return to its old business, returning to the knowledge payment track.

The last video of the account of Sikao Le Education that focuses on live streaming e-commerce was posted in September last year. There are no products in the store anymore, and its influencer "Wen Xiansheng" has switched to a private account.

Image source: Tik Tok screenshot

New Oriental's successful transformation relies on the correct strategic direction and team execution, and creating a star anchor like Dong Yuhui also requires some luck and the support of the entire live broadcast operation team. Even if the content is similar, the strategic direction and resources are different, or there is a lack of luck or the timing of entry is missed, the results will vary greatly.

More importantly, the Tianya Community team has its own limitations.

In 2013, Tianya decided to launch the "Weibo" APP, shouting the slogan "Three micros dominate the world, Weibo, WeChat and Weibo", but it ultimately failed to meet expectations. In 2014, when Kuaishou emerged, Xing Ming noticed the broad prospects of short video and live broadcast business, and when he was about to create a "Tianya account" similar to the video account, he encountered a capital chain break. Tianya also invested in the travel e-commerce industry and entered the blockchain, but ultimately missed every potential commercial opportunity.

When it was at its peak, Tianya lacked qualitative goals and failed to play to its own strengths. It missed the mobile Internet, novel copyright IP monetization, and live e-commerce, which means that the team lacked commercialization sense, project execution and landing capabilities. The funds and talents required for transformation, business thinking and foresight were all limited, and Tianya's "self-rescue plan" was insufficient in terms of innate conditions.

3. The embarrassment of content communities

The regret of Tianya is that it missed the mobile Internet wave. However, the world is no longer the world of the WEB2.0 era. The content community of the mobile Internet has become mature and stable. Xiaohongshu is the only one in the female community, Hupu is a male and sports content community, Douban is a gathering place for literary youths, and Zhihu focuses on knowledge attributes.

If Tianya can be restarted, the first thing it needs to face is the problem of how to regain its users. The once high-quality Tianya users have long been scattered in every corner of the Internet, and their habits of accepting content have long since changed.

Even if Tianya is restarted as a "content community", it will face the same challenges as other current content communities - whether it can strike a balance between content ecology and commercialization, realize multiple commercialization models in parallel, and support the company to walk on multiple legs.

Take Hupu as an example. Hupu's commercialization has always been a problem. Hupu was founded in 2007. Its predecessor was hoopCHINA Basketball Forum. It was a content community centered on sports content. Later, it transformed into a pan-entertainment content community. Because of the large number of male users, it was called "straight male paradise."

In addition to online advertising, Hupu is also actively exploring a commercial model that combines community and e-commerce. In 2007, Hupu launched a trading zone, in 2009 launched the e-commerce platform Calorie Mall, in 2014 founded the shopping guide website "Shihuo", and later incubated the shopping community Dewu. In 2017, the transaction volume of Hupu's "Shihuo" platform reached 2 billion. In terms of commercial exploration, Hupu was once ahead of many content communities.

Hupu's "Shihuo" and "Dewu" details page source network

However, Hupu failed twice in its IPO (initial public offering). In 2016, Hupu submitted its prospectus and attempted an IPO for the first time. According to the prospectus, Hupu was very dependent on advertising at the time, with advertising revenue accounting for 55.64%, 56.14% and 60.78% from 2013 to 2015 respectively. Due to factors such as a single revenue model, insufficient risk resistance, and unstable net profit revenue, Hupu's IPO was terminated in 2017.

In 2019, Hupu once again attempted an IPO with a new business model of advertising + e-commerce + innovative business. However, Hupu's revenue is still concentrated in the advertising business, accounting for as much as 48%. Although it has achieved multiple commercialization models in parallel, Hupu still cannot get rid of its dependence on advertising and has not won the favor of the capital market. In 2021, Hupu terminated its IPO application and ushered in two large-scale layoffs.

The elite knowledge community Zhihu has also encountered difficulties in its commercialization model.

As a knowledge community that gathers a large amount of industry professional content, Zhihu's number of registered users reached 220 million by the end of 2018. Due to the platform's general knowledge content tone, huge number of registered users, and the rise of "knowledge payment", its IPO road is smoother than Hupu.

According to Zhihu's prospectus, Zhihu's total revenue in 2020 was 1.352 billion yuan, with the majority of revenue coming from online advertising, accounting for 62.4% of total revenue. Like mainstream content communities, Zhihu also faces the embarrassment of relying on online advertising for its revenue.

The revenue part of Zhihu's IPO prospectus is from the Internet

Since 2019, Zhihu has begun to look for more business growth scenarios among users. For example, it launched the Zhihu Salt Selection column, developed novel copyright and paid reading business, entered the vocational education track, and explored the fields of e-commerce, live broadcasting and short videos.

Zhihu Salt Selection Column and Zhihu produced short dramas Source Network

After several years of hard work, Zhihu's commercial content solutions and paid content business revenues have seen significant increases, while marketing service revenues have shrunk. The marketing service business, which accounted for 86.2% of revenue in 2019, will account for 39.4% of revenue in 2023. In addition, Zhihu is also facing difficulties such as slow MAU growth, user usage time facing the impact of video platforms, and limited commercialization space.

The "embarrassment" of the commercialization of content communities is a difficult mystery for current content platforms. If Tianya, which failed to "survive" that year, can really restart and return, it will definitely encounter this problem again - how to commercialize the content community?

Finally, if Tianya can successfully restart and save itself, it will no longer face a battle for BBS communities or mobile Internet platforms, but rather the faster-paced and more brutal competition of content community platforms in the WEB 3.0 era.

Every content platform in the form of pictures and texts will face the impact of short video platforms and Kuaishou and Douyin video accounts. I hope that this time Tianya Community is really ready and will no longer "draw its sword and look around in confusion."

References:

• Tianya founder Xing Ming's "self-rescue plan": revival depends on live e-commerce, and AI will be used to make short plays in the future Source: Jiupai News
• Different BBS fates: Tianya died miserably, while Tiexue lived a comfortable life. Source: Value Research Institute
• It’s already 2023, and Zhihu still hasn’t made any money Source: Mirror View

Author: Laisheng, WeChat public account: TopKlout (ID: TopKlout)