What exactly is a skit?

Short dramas are in the limelight, but the rapidly developing industry is also facing many challenges. What is the way out for short dramas? What is the future of Chinese short dramas?

The short dramas that were ridiculed by the industry in the past two years are now rumored to be "the most profitable track in 2023" with their astonishing investment-to-output ratio. Practitioners claim that "wealth freedom depends on this wave." Hengdian has become a "vertical store", with multiple crews starting filming at the same time, and the hundreds of millions of investment in the celebration cake are all dazzling.

It has a wide audience, short shooting cycle, fast capital recovery, low entry threshold and low review standards, and people inside and outside the industry are eager to try it.

A short play costs only the price of a movie ticket, but it can make a lot of money if it becomes popular. When the saying "shoot in a week, earn over 100 million in 8 days, and become rich in 10 days" became popular, everyone was thinking: what if? Those who rushed to join the game were all betting on this "what if".

The regulatory details released on November 18th not only cooled down the booming short drama industry, but also forced practitioners to reflect on what kind of short drama is both critically acclaimed and commercially successful, and what is the future of Chinese short dramas?

1. Who is doing the skit?

One media summarized it as, "In one minute, an ordinary and cowardly son-in-law turns into the powerful Brother Long, in three minutes, he completes the gorgeous transformation and revenge of his former abandoned wife, and in five minutes, he witnesses how the urban god of war strategizes and wins the business battlefield..." Unlike online novels that require users to read a long preparation before waiting for a counterattack, short dramas allow users to get "instant satisfaction" with just the movement of their fingers.

There is no need to elaborate on the era of "The Crooked Mouth God of War". Short dramas have already appeared. The Son-in-Law's Turnaround and The Sound of Slaps are still one of the mainstream short dramas for men. Bai Ke's "Never Expected" is also called the forerunner of short dramas in some academic research. It can be said that the prototype of online dramas has already existed.

Currently, the production of short dramas can be simplified into three parts: writing scripts, shooting videos, and delivering traffic.

In a sense, this also divides the participants into three types with different professional backgrounds: IP/copyright companies, film and television production companies, and MCN companies.

Some of the short play scripts are authorized by well-known online literature, some are written by screenwriters employed by the crew who race against time to finish a script a week, and some are script-killing screenwriters who switch careers to write short plays.

Companies such as China Online and Jetsen Holdings, which have rich digital content and contracted authors, have great advantages in IP/copyright. Their inherent script advantages allow them to be one step ahead of others at the starting point.

China Online and ByteDance have signed a "Framework Cooperation Agreement", and will cooperate around the authorization of audio works, joint creation of an anchor ecosystem, co-construction of audio content, authorization of digital copyrights to platforms such as Tomato Novel, and authorization of well-known IP works to platforms such as Tomato Novel and Xigua Video.

In terms of film and television production, Hengdian, Xi'an and Zhengzhou are all represented, and film and television production companies have entered the market with their favorable professional backgrounds.

According to the person in charge of Xi'an Fengxing, in the emerging short drama track, Xi'an's production capacity can account for more than half of the country, followed by Hengdian and Zhengzhou, and the number of short drama-related companies is also higher than that of traditional film and television cities such as Hengdian. The top ten short dramas in the first half of the year, "Wushuang", "The Takeaway Husband of the Female President", and "The Best Butler" are all from Xi'an.

The vertical screen popular in short dramas has even changed the shooting logic of practitioners. How to arrange characters in vertical screen shooting has become a new problem. There is even a saying that Hengdian has become a "vertical store". Short dramas have also supported many small crews in Hengdian. With the trend of high-quality dramas brought about by the popularity of "The Sturm und Drang", "The Long Season" and X Theater, many crews with relatively poor production and lower level have begun to "lose food". Eighteen-line actors can play the male and female protagonists, lighting assistants can control the whole scene, and the stage staff who have worked in formal crews can directly go down to be directors. Short dramas have supported people who have changed careers.

Companies such as Huace Film & TV and Lemon Studios, which have been exploring various forms of film and television interaction and have excellent film and television resources, are also like fish in water in this game. The latter's "Twenty-Nine" has a total online playback volume of 800 million times.

In this short drama competition, the script and video are sometimes not the key factors in making a short drama a hit. The traffic determines whether a short drama will be a hit or a flop.

The main consideration for the investment in mini-program short dramas is ROI. The main reference is the user portraits, tool support and platform rules and policies of different platforms, mainly including short video platforms (consuming more than 90% of the purchase budget), graphic information flow and online literature platforms, and mobile phone brand terminals.

According to a special report on the short drama market by Everbright Securities, the current general pace of release in the industry is:

1. On the first day of the short drama’s launch, thousands of models were tested, using a “run the volume and see the results” approach to screen profitable models and increase investment.
2. 80% of the budget is invested in the first week, and the funds are gradually reduced in the later period. After the life cycle of a drama ends, it continues to generate income through distribution or free of charge. Based on ROI (return on investment).
3. In 23 years, for a short drama with 80 to 100 episodes, the best comprehensive ROI can reach 1.7. If it is between 1.2 and 1.3, it means the effect is good. If the ROI is lower than 1.1, it will not continue to be invested.

MCN companies are often good at traffic investment. They also benefit from the traffic operation advantages accumulated when short videos became popular. The traffic investment of short dramas is often a carefully edited wonderful reversal video, which is naturally friendly to the creators of short videos. Companies such as Yaowang Technology and Jiayun Technology have hundreds of millions of fans and billions of exposures on all platforms. When it comes to delivering the right content to the right people, MCN companies are the best choice.

For example, Mi Meng started a new business and established Silver Earth MCN, which has 21 artists under its umbrella. According to statistics from the media, the customized short plays of three talents from Silver Earth, Jiang Shiqi, Hao Jie Lai Le, and Qiao Qiyue, alone earned more than 46 million in 90 days, and the annual revenue is expected to be 180 million.

The number of views of "Night Shift Diary" starring Jiang Shiqi exceeded 1 billion, and the number of views of "Heartbeat More Than a Moment" exceeded 800 million. In addition to the revenue brought by the number of views, Silver Land also successfully ran brand-customized short dramas.

2. How to make money from short plays

The market potential of short dramas is based on the vast short video user group. According to the "China Internet Audio-Visual Development Research Report", as of the end of 2022, the scale of short video users in my country has reached 1.012 billion, and more than 50% of users have watched short dramas of less than 3 minutes.

The profit model of traditional TV series production is to sell the copyright to the broadcasting platform to obtain "one-time" income without being directly responsible for the broadcasting effect . However, in recent years, new changes in media audiences and media development have ushered in a market era where "audience is king". Based on the platform, content, and audience attributes, micro-short dramas have opened up a new profit model that is dominated by platform profit sharing, supplemented by other models such as customized procurement, advertising placement, and live streaming.

Short video platforms mainly support traffic with additional cash rewards or profit-sharing models. In 2020, Kuaishou launched the "Star Plan" to provide creators with a full range of monetization links through profit-sharing rewards, brand investment, live e-commerce, etc. In 2021, Douyin launched the "New Fan Plan", relying on the platform's resource advantages to drive creators to build a Douyin short drama ecosystem.

Long video platforms have improved the revenue-sharing model for short-length dramas, encouraged the production of high-quality content, and made the revenue-sharing model more detailed and clear. Tencent Video upgraded the platform's short-length drama revenue-sharing rules in the first half of 2022, dividing short-length dramas into S, A, and B levels, with the effective viewing time unit price for member users being 2 yuan/hour, 1.5 yuan/hour, and 1 yuan/hour, respectively, and incorporating them into the platform's member revenue-sharing model. Recently, the "2023 Tencent Video Revenue-Sharing Drama Strategy" was launched, and the total revenue-sharing income of the partners became the sum of the member revenue-sharing income, advertising revenue-sharing income, and incentive income.

In addition to relying on traditional profit-sharing, short dramas can also be monetized through advertising, brand customization, payment, e-commerce and other forms.

Short dramas rely on content to attract users' attention, and then adopt a variety of means to increase brand exposure and interaction. Lightweight short dramas can give in to brands and bring more playability to brand marketing. Shiseido Red Waist has a short drama customized for the brand, and the manager of Marumi also personally filmed the short drama. These product placements have become popular with the short dramas, just like the Dong'e Ejiao when "The Legend of Zhen Huan" was popular.

After starring in a hit drama, the actor's value has risen, and he can use this familiar face to do live broadcasting and e-commerce, and make full use of the value of traffic by bringing goods. Although the audience does not believe that the products recommended by their favorite actors are necessarily useful, the audience can place an order for small products in the live broadcast room just because they like the actors to please others.

@一只璐, who has 7.85 million fans, is the heroine of popular short dramas such as "This Male Lead Is a Bit Cold" and "The Scumbags of the Dynasty". She has gained recognition from hundreds of millions of people, accumulated fans, and then started live streaming to sell goods. According to Xinbang's Xinkuai data, the sales of "一只璐" exceeded 15 million yuan in the past 30 days.

Short dramas have both the density of information and the efficiency of short videos. In terms of converting traffic into brand value, many achievements have been made, and the platform has also provided many means and tools. At present, there are means with the same logic as long dramas, such as title sponsorship, oral broadcast, and package, as well as special products of short video platforms such as live interaction and search advertising.

Of course, the popularity of "It's Over! I'm Surrounded by Beautiful Women" has broadened the imagination of short dramas in terms of gamification. This is also a huge driving force for this round of short dramas to be hotly discussed in the industry again.

In fact, before "Endless 1", there have been interactive short dramas such as "The Invisible Guardian" and "Leap Over Room 13" on the market, but none of them have truly become phenomenal hits.

3. What is the future of short dramas?

The number of short dramas filed in 2022 increased significantly, from 398 in 2021 to 2,775 throughout the year, and the number of key online short dramas launched increased from 58 in 2021 to 172. According to the SARFT's key online film and television drama information filing system, an average of nearly 300 short dramas were filed per month in the first half of 2023, and it is predicted that the number of short dramas filed throughout the year will exceed 3,500.

Initially, the approval of short plays was issued directly by the platform. The interests of the platform and the short play producers were aligned, and passing the review was often not a hurdle. At this time, the ecology of short plays was growing wildly and mixed with good and bad.

The State Administration of Radio, Film and Television once again launched a one-month special rectification campaign around the orientation, titles, content, aesthetics, personnel, publicity, and broadcasting of online short dramas. Traffic platforms responded positively, with Douyin, Kuaishou, and WeChat collectively announcing a crackdown on illegal and low-quality short dramas; on November 16, Douyin issued an announcement on cracking down on illegal short dramas, announcing that a total of 119 illegal short dramas had been removed from its mini-programs recently, and 1,188 Douyin accounts that illegally promoted short dramas had been dealt with.

In the short term, the rectification period is expected to cause a decline in the supply of short drama content and the level of advertising consumption, which will in turn affect the birth of hit dramas.

Among the popular short dramas from January to July 2023, 90% of the themes are still based on "coolness", the God of War theme is still popular, and other types such as time travel, counterattack, and rebirth are also popular among users.

According to the data compiled by "Xinwaner", among the short dramas launched in August 2024, the number of war god themes accounted for 44%, the number of sweet pet themes accounted for 25%, and the number of sadomasochistic themes accounted for 22%.

In the past week, platforms such as Douyin, Kuaishou, and WeChat have successively issued announcements on the management of micro-short dramas, and have removed tens of thousands of works in total. On November 16 alone, 127 micro-short dramas on Douyin were banned from streaming.

It is worth noting that the platforms mentioned in their announcements that they would control "propaganda of fighting violence with violence, extreme revenge, gang-related, and violent behavior." According to peers, a new media community also reported that "rebirth, time travel, borderline, revenge and other themes are not allowed in the near future, and the acceptance of such scripts will be suspended."

The State Administration of Radio, Film and Television is speeding up the formulation of the "Detailed Rules for the Creation, Production and Content Review of Online Micro-Short Dramas" and is studying the promotion of short drama apps and mini-programs into daily institutional management. Since the subject matter and content of short drama creation are currently the focus of supervision, short dramas as a whole will develop towards high-quality products, and the future development of short dramas may still depend on the top content manufacturers.

On the one hand, we can pay attention to the effect of traffic platforms on the rectification of short dramas and the progress of subsequent supervision. The stricter filing and approval of short dramas may put an end to the current booming short drama ecosystem.

On the other hand, short dramas going overseas are also a way to seek new profit growth points. The download volume of ReelShort, owned by China Online, once exceeded that of TikTok. According to third-party data, its download volume in October reached 2.25 million times, with a turnover of about 3.5 million US dollars.

The combination of foreign faces and Chinese-style cool stories has swept the West. The most popular series "The double life of my billionaire husband" has 3 million views even on YouTube. Its payment method is similar to that of domestic short video platforms, either watching ads or paying change for the next episode of new excitement. It costs about $5-10 to watch the whole show, which is about the price of one or two movie tickets.

The recently popular game "It's Over! I'm Surrounded by Beautiful Women!" is actually an example of an interactive short drama sold on Steanm in the form of a game. People have been trained to watch short videos and have become more receptive to interactive formats.

What is the way out for short dramas? Either going overseas or moving closer to games. Perhaps all practitioners are focusing on their core strengths. Those with copyrights focus on content, those with production capacity focus on filming, those with investment capacity focus on expanding ROI, and those with traffic advantages build distribution platforms... With the supervision passed, winning more viewers and consumers is the best way.

Author: Siweiqi, WeChat public account: Wuduidui (esnql520)