Short and long videos in 2022

Under the influence of various cultures, short video culture has begun to develop vigorously, and of course long video is not to be outdone. This article discusses the competition between short videos and long videos in the market theme and content market from the perspective of short videos and long videos. Interested friends can take a look.

If 2021 was a year of close combat and frequent conflicts between long and short videos, then in 2022, the long and short video platforms have reached a shaking hand and made peace. The "battle for time" between the two sides is no longer the main theme of the market, and it has begun to enter a new equilibrium situation.

The short videos that have been conquering the market in the past few years have begun to hit their growth ceiling. Although Video Accounts have come on strong, they have not posed enough challenges to Douyin and Kuaishou. Commercialization has become a tight hoop hanging over the heads of all platforms, and each company is stepping up efforts to consolidate its own business city.

Although the number of paying users in the long-form video industry has peaked for a long time, a stable audience group has been formed. Several platforms are competing with each other to attract the limited attention of users through popular content. In this "zero-sum game", the growth of iQiyi's membership this year is at the expense of Tencent Video's "blood loss", but it is hard to say who will have the last laugh.

This year, "electronic pickles" have become a cultural trend. Compared with personalized short videos, "collective carnival" dramas can help 240 million single people get rid of loneliness, not to mention variety shows as social emotion collectors, which is a "moat" that long videos cannot cross in a short period of time. When the distinction between long and short videos becomes more and more clear, the content market will usher in a healthier competition.

1. Video accounts have made rapid progress, but have not changed the competitive landscape of short videos

Recently, Ma Huateng's speech at the end-of-year internal conference has become the focus of heated discussion on the Internet, and the "hope of the whole factory" has once again attracted the attention of the public to the video account. Quest Mobile released the "2022 China Mobile Internet Half-Year Report" showing that as of June this year, the monthly active scale of WeChat Video Account exceeded 800 million, surpassing Douyin. However, the growth of the video account has accelerated, but Douyin and Kuaishou have not been significantly impacted.

In Tencent’s second quarter financial report, the total usage time of Video Account users exceeded 80% of the total usage time of Moments users (according to data disclosed by Zhang Xiaolong at the 2019 WeChat Open Class Pro, the time users spend on Moments has remained basically unchanged for many years, at an average of 30 minutes a day). This means that the user time of Video Account is still only about one-third of that of Douyin and Kuaishou , and it still has a long way to go to subvert the competitive landscape and rules of the game in the short video market.

User penetration rate has increased rapidly, but user engagement has grown limitedly, which means that video accounts have not yet formed sufficient user stickiness, the content still lacks distinctive features, and users tend to consume casually rather than immersively.

The growth of Video Account this year is inseparable from the new user acquisition effect of a series of live concerts. Unfortunately, the imperfect content ecology and community atmosphere make the retention rate worrying. At present, it seems that the strategic significance of Video Account is more within Tencent's "walled garden", taking on the responsibility of "supporting the family" of the entire group through e-commerce and advertising, while at the same time resisting the user erosion of Douyin and Kuaishou to a certain extent.

At the end of the year, the news that Douyin entered the taxi market spread like wildfire and became the headline of technology news. After launching food delivery services not long ago, Douyin once again attacked the local life market, which also made the media begin to regard Douyin as the next WeChat. When Douyin's position in the industry is basically consolidated, getting rid of advertising dependence and opening up more commercial growth points will become the next strategic focus.

Although the self-operated e-commerce business has pushed up the ceiling of Douyin's advertising revenue, its performance in 2022 was still lower than ByteDance's expectations, which has also accelerated its pace of moving into local life.

Short video platforms have become shopping platforms for hundreds of millions of users. Is it possible for them to go one step further and become a life service platform that netizens cannot live without? This depends on the conversion path and conversion cost from short videos to life services. The path of live streaming is direct enough, the conversion rate platform is clear and controllable, and the logistics and customer service infrastructure is in place.

In contrast, local life is a business with strong operations, heavy assets, and efficiency first. Traffic itself is not omnipotent, and users who are accustomed to active searches will not easily accept comprehensive "algorithm feeding" of food, clothing, housing and transportation.

To become the next WeChat, Douyin needs to achieve breakthroughs in the social landscape. However, all the social apps independently developed by ByteDance have failed, whether it is acquaintance social networking, stranger social networking, content social networking, or grass-roots social networking. Even so, ByteDance's social dream is still beating. The newly upgraded Duoshan has begun to clone the overseas social product Bereal, but it is unlikely to escape the dilemma of "not being able to adapt to the local environment".

As the "third in the industry", Kuaishou has established its own ecological niche and has not become a victim of the competition between the two giants. The third quarter financial report shows that Kuaishou's average daily active users reached 363 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%.

A more critical indicator is that the cumulative number of mutually connected user pairs reached 23.5 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 63.1%, which means that Kuaishou's "old iron relationship network" is more tightly woven. This also makes Kuaishou's e-commerce business based on private domain traffic expected to achieve a 26% growth (according to LatePost).

Kuaishou’s current priority is to achieve “de-familialization”, branding and quality improvement of the economic ecology while activating the “market economy” . This is destined to be a balancing game like walking on a tightrope.

At the end of November, the official Kuaishou store account, which has 220 million followers, began live streaming to sell goods, which is undoubtedly to enhance the trust of users and brands in the platform and set a quality benchmark for e-commerce business.

At present, Kuaishou’s average order value still has a certain gap compared with Douyin, JD.com, and Taobao Tmall, which also means that its e-commerce business still has huge room for improvement.

2. iQiyi is gaining followers, Tencent Video is losing blood, and long videos are falling into a "zero-sum game"?

As the fifth TV series with over 10,000 hits on the site was released this year, iQiyi once again announced a membership price increase. The intensive pace of three price increases in two years has attracted ridicule from the outside world - "Every hit drama means a price increase."

However, judging from the performance of iQiyi's membership business since the price increase began, the steady output of hit content has resulted in increasing user stickiness, and members are becoming less and less sensitive to price elasticity.

According to iQiyi's third quarter financial report, the number of members increased by more than 10 million in the quarter, and the average number of daily subscribed members exceeded 100 million again. Perhaps it is the drainage effect of the popular content that gave iQiyi the confidence to raise prices again.

On December 21, the strong return of the new work "The Returned Daughter" by "Misty Theater" caused iQiyi's stock price to rise by more than 20%. For several years, the number of paying users of the leading long-video platforms has always fluctuated around 100 million, which means that the long-video consumer group has basically stabilized and has never really left, and a high-quality drama can easily bring them back.

Judging from iQIYI's performance in the drama market this year, it seems that it has found a hit methodology and is gradually overcoming the uncertainty of "pulse-style" content supply. The five dramas with a popularity of over 10,000, "The World", "Cang Lan Jue", "Punishment", "Daily Life of the Lover", and "Wind Blowing Half Summer", are relatively balanced in genre, and have achieved breakthroughs in genres such as national drama, period drama, sweet pet drama, fairy tale drama, and criminal investigation drama.

However, whether iQiyi can maintain its content leadership remains to be further tested next year. Even Netflix cannot sit back and relax, as this is the cruelty of the streaming industry.

Unlike the short video market, this year's long video market has not achieved a common expansion of the pie, but is more like a "zero-sum game". Tencent's financial report shows that the total number of Tencent Video paid members in the third quarter decreased by 9 million year-on-year and 2 million month-on-month. The continuous loss of users reflects the decline of "content power".

This is partly because Tencent Video has not been able to get rid of its "ancient idol addiction", and its tried-and-true "IP + traffic star" configuration has repeatedly failed this year. In the annual ranking of the market share of TV series by Yunhe Data, only one Tencent Video exclusive drama ("The Stars") made the top five, while iQiyi had three.

Tencent Video's performance this year was not satisfactory, which was also related to its much-criticized broadcasting strategy. Many key works were postponed, and the broadcast schedule was randomly inserted in order to attract investment and extend the broadcast line, which seriously interfered with the audience's rhythm of chasing dramas and gradually exhausted the audience's patience.

However, judging from the film list for 2023, the content diversification of Tencent Video has greatly improved compared to this year, and the "theatricalization" strategy has finally arrived, and it is expected to partially recover this year's lost ground.

Alibaba's Q2 2023 financial report (July 1 to September 30, 2022) shows that Youku's average daily paying user base increased by 8% year-on-year, and its losses have narrowed year-on-year for six consecutive quarters. In the "2022 Drama Market Observation" released by Lighthouse Professional Edition, Youku and iQiyi each occupied four seats in the top 10 feature film playback index throughout the year, although Youku only occupied one seat in the top five.

Youku has performed well in the sub-contents such as suspense and female themes this year, and is finding a differentiated way to survive in the long video track. The constant topic of "Infinite Beyond Class" at the end of the year also shows that Youku's strength in the variety show field cannot be underestimated.

Speaking of variety shows, we have to mention Mango TV, which relies on hit variety shows to gain a foothold in the long video market. Although it has two popular variety shows this year, "Riding the Wind and Waves 3" and "Breaking the Thorns 2", the high start and low end of both show mean that Mango TV's variety show gameplay is gradually becoming ineffective. Compared with these pure entertainment variety shows, "attitude variety shows" that can inspire young people to express their values ​​vividly are more popular, such as the second season of "The Annual Comedy Competition", which is still very popular.

3. The popularity of "electronic mustard tuber" is not replaced by long and short videos

"Short videos will eat into the time of long videos, games and other products. This is an objective law of development." At the internal staff meeting, Ma Huateng said that short videos are forcing Tencent to adjust its long video strategy, such as cutting non-quality content. This year, iQiyi is determined to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and focusing on content quality is also a move for survival. However, Tencent, which has a big backing, is half a beat slower in transformation.

In July this year, iQiyi and Douyin reached a content licensing cooperation, which means that the top players of long and short videos have turned from enemies to friends. After the rapid development in the past few years, the consumption scenarios and user preferences of long and short videos are gradually becoming clear, and the tension between them is no longer on the rise.

As the 2021 China Internet Audiovisual Development Research Report states: Single fragmented time makes it difficult for users to enter an immersive experience. Short videos cannot meet all the content needs of the younger generation.

This year, the term "electronic mustard tuber" has become a popular buzzword. Many ancient puppet shows that "fight big with small means" have distinct "electronic mustard tuber" attributes, and are even tailored to the needs of young people with rice. Interestingly, unlike the 3-5 minute "instant noodle show", the electronic mustard tuber of contemporary young people is often a long video with a single episode of more than half an hour, rather than a short video.

Why can classic TV series such as "Empresses in the Palace" and "Wulin Wai Zhuan" become "electronic mustard tubers" that people never tire of eating, and why can "The Daily Life of a Lady" become the hottest new "electronic mustard tuber" this year? Because the popularity of "electronic mustard tubers" is inseparable from the word "loneliness". Eating with the TV series that everyone is following can well relieve the emptiness caused by being alone , and there is a sense of collective participation in "dining together" with thousands of people and "being happy together".

Similarly, popular variety shows such as "Annual Comedy Contest" and "Talk Show Conference" are also a kind of "remote social interaction" among lonely young people, a collective collision and release of individual emotions. In contrast, watching fast-food short videos with thousands of different faces will only make young people living alone feel empty and lonely, and they will be further and further away from the crowd in the "information cocoon".

In this sense, the growing population of people living alone (reaching 92 million in 2021) has a stronger psychological need for mass entertainment. The popularity of short videos is eroding the viewing time of long video users while also pushing more users to the other side.

(Some of the pictures in the article are from the Internet)

Author: Kazama

Source: Entertainment Value Officer