The Great Migration of KPIs for Marketers: From “Market Share” to “Voice”

In today's era of information explosion and rapidly changing public opinion, marketers are facing unprecedented challenges. The traditional marketing model centered on market share is gradually losing its effectiveness, and the focus of marketers' work is undergoing a major migration from "market share" to "discourse power".

In 2024, Zhong Shanshan of Nongfu Spring would not have expected that he would become the protagonist in a contemporary "Aesop's Fables". He was originally a "farmer", but netizens turned him into the snake in "The Farmer and the Snake".

For Zhong Shanshan, who has experienced many ups and downs, he may have initially thought that those groundless accusations on the Internet were just small ripples in his ups and downs in the business career, which could only bring some shakes to the giant aircraft carrier of Nongfu Spring.

But the rumors became more and more fierce, and the development of the situation caught everyone by surprise. Nongfu Spring water began to be unsalable, and the inventory in the hands of distributors piled up like a mountain... The story of "the farmer and the snake" not only discredited the Nongfu Spring brand, but also shook the entire distribution system of Nongfu, truly shaking the foundation of this company!

In 2024, Nongfu Spring's packaged drinking water business fell by 18.3% in the first half of the year, earning 1.9 billion yuan less. They said the reason for the decline in performance was: "Since the end of February 2024, a large number of public opinion attacks and malicious slander against the company and its founder have appeared on the Internet, which has had a serious negative impact on our brand and sales."

Zhong Shanshan's response at the beginning of the incident was quite "understated". He wrote a "short essay" to respond to the cyber violence, but it had little effect.

But Zhong Shanshan is Zhong Shanshan after all. As a journalist, he is best at fighting public opinion wars. Nongfu Spring relied on the "Daffodil Experiment" public opinion incident to nail the "natural water" category into the hearts of people across the country. When he really started to think about countermeasures, his methods were so brilliant that those of us who do marketing were amazed and ashamed of ourselves.

First of all, Zhong Shanshan, who has been producing natural water for 24 years, launched green bottled purified water for the first time.

The price of a single bottle of Green Bottle at the terminal is less than 1 yuan. The farmer has used the extremely low price to regain the city lost due to online violence. At least when the fire broke out in his backyard, the competitors who were eyeing him could not easily "take advantage of your illness to kill you". Mr. Zhong really understands the psychology of the Chinese people. Those people who have been brainwashed by rumors are also very likely to give up their "principles" in the face of low prices.

"Red bottle is healthier, green bottle is a little sweeter" is also a very interesting slogan. "Red bottle is healthier" does it mean that green bottle is not so healthy? I think Nongfu Spring will not fail to find such an obvious logical loophole, which is obviously deliberate.

People on the Internet say that Farmer used natural water to belittle purified water. Now that I say I am not good, you can't say anything about me anymore, right?

Moreover, setting the price of green-bottle purified water lower than that of red-bottle natural water not only protects the high-end market and brand status of natural water, but also allows for legitimate entry into the enemy camp, killing two birds with one stone.

Finally, Zhong Shanshan, who had been cyberbullied for 167 days, appeared on CCTV's "Dialogue" and told three stories:

1. It took 7 years to solve the technical problems of industrial orange juicing, overcome the Huanglongbing disease, and launch 17.5° NFC orange juice, which helped more than 4,000 fruit farmers to become rich.
2. We insist on finding and building an ideal water source. For example, it took 10 years from finding the Changbai Mountain water source to the completion of the factory.
3. Oriental Leaves, whose sales have doubled in the past two years, was once rated as the most unpalatable beverage. Nongfu Spring suffered losses for seven consecutive years until the rise of the sugar-free beverage market, when the clouds finally cleared and the moon appeared.

After this CCTV interview, the public opinion storm about Nongfu was finally settled, and Zhong Shanshan was an "idealistic madman."

If we look back carefully at 2024, you will find that Nongfu Spring is not an isolated case. There are countless companies and countless influential figures who have been beaten to a pulp by public opinion, but only Nongfu Spring has survived. Not only has Nongfu Spring survived, it has also made a great comeback!

The reason why I reviewed the public opinion storm about Nongfu in great detail is because this incident gave all market people an important revelation!

The work of marketers is changing from competing for "market share" to competing for "voice".

This revelation indicates that the goals and principles we believed in in marketing work in the past have been lost.

01 KPI of marketers: from “mind share” to “mind discourse power”

Over the past many years, marketers have been busy all year round fighting for one thing, and that thing is called "market share"!

Products have to compete for market share, that is, market share; channels have to compete for market penetration, that is, terminal share; advertisements also have to compete for SOV (Share of Voice), that is, media voice share. Ultimately, brands grab a share of the mind in the minds of users, that is, mind share.

But now you will find that it is not enough to just have "mind share", you must also have "mind voice" in the minds of consumers.

A brand with a high "mind share" often means that it has become the consumer's first choice in its own category.

For example, when it comes to children's watches, parents would choose Xiaotiancai. For example, when it comes to cheese sticks, the first choice is Meiji Landou.

Nongfu Spring is clearly one of consumers' first choice for drinking water, but an online attack caused many consumers to "turn against" and abandon this brand.

The reason is simple: the person you think of most often is not necessarily the one you truly believe in. You miss your parents and family most often, but the person you believe in most may be Kobe or Steve Jobs.

"Mind share" refers to "the probability that consumers can think of a brand", while "mind voice" refers to the ability of "what the brand says and what consumers believe".

Gaining "mind share" and gaining "mind voice" are essentially two ways of thinking.

"Mind share" believes that consumers' minds are limited and can only accommodate a few brands. Brand marketing is like a battle between countries over territory and territories, and it ultimately depends on who has the bigger territory. Everyone is competing for the same group of users and the same dimension of demand.

We can use a one-dimensional diagram to express this thinking:

The "right to speak in the mind" believes that consumers' minds are infinite, and brands will "coexist" in different mental dimensions. Brand marketing is to construct a narrative in another dimension and establish a new right to speak. Everyone is competing for the same group of users and their needs in different dimensions.

We can express this thinking with a multidimensional diagram:

Let us use the competition between clothing brands to understand the difference between "mind share" and "mind voice".

In the early years, Metersbonwe, Yishion, Deerhui, Semir, these domestic fashion sports brands, were all competing for "market share". They grabbed market share by opening stores and grabbed media voice through media advertising.

Back then, these brands were basically competing for the same needs of the same users, so they had to occupy more mind share.

Now, let’s look at the competition among clothing brands.

Environmentalist brands like Patagonia advocate "buy less, think more"; Douyin e-commerce advocates "stock up on your favorite clothes at low prices"; brands like Muji advocate "don't pay a premium for the brand"; and fast fashion brands like Zara advocate "wear it for one season and throw it away."

The consumers who buy these brands may be the same group of consumers, but the brands are competing for the needs of the same group of users in different psychological scenarios. The key to marketing is not who has a louder voice or a larger territory, but who has more power and authority to make people believe in this consumption value!

In short, the brand competition is no longer a competition of size, but a competition of opinions. There is no such thing as high or low, right or wrong between brands, what matters is whether they have their own believers!

This is what I call "mental discourse power", and the method of shaping "mental discourse power" I call "narrative".

02 Use narrative to eliminate competition

First of all, narrative is not the same as story.

The Oxford English Dictionary defines narrative as:

“A story or representation that describes a society or period in an interpretive or illustrative way.”

The definition given by Narrative Economics is:

“Narrative is a story-telling statement that can trigger collective consensus. It can explain important social phenomena, cultural trends, and the spirit of the times. It is a kind of collective empathy and public belief.”

The reason why I advocate using narrative to shape discourse power is that narrative is not about competing for a position within the existing framework, but about catering to a mood of the times or public beliefs, opening up a new consumption concept, and eliminating competition.

On August 19th and 20th, people were discussing the game "Black Myth: Wukong" everywhere on Weibo. The "game black holes" around me all recharged money for the first time and started discussing the plot settings in it.

As a business consultant, I was thinking about a question at the time: How would Black Myth: Wukong be promoted according to traditional marketing logic? Its slogan might be "the leader of domestic AAA games." But in fact, no player plays it just because it is the top AAA game.

The reason why players are chasing after and discussing this game is that it caters to the mood of the times and the expectations of the Chinese people.

Finally, someone was able to bring Chinese culture to life in games, breaking the monopoly of foreign games in the market. From then on, Chinese games could compete with foreign masterpieces. It represented the social narrative of the rise of the Chinese game industry and gave rise to our inner national pride.

When producer Feng Ji described the game, his Weibo post was not about how great the game technology was, but rather that "setting foot on the journey to obtain Buddhist scriptures is more important than reaching Mount Lingshan." He also said, "The reason why we chose traditional Chinese materials is actually to advertise Journey to the West."

Such narratives resonated with countless players, who spontaneously supported the game and involved the general public who knew nothing about it.

Nowadays, Black Myth Wukong has evolved from a game product to a social issue. Some people are discussing #Black Myth Wukong hidden boss# on Weibo, while others are arguing over #Black Myth Wukong ending#.

Because 27 of the 36 filming locations in the game are in Shanxi, Shanxi has become a new internet celebrity check-in spot. A series of topics about #Shanxi Black Wukong theme route is here# and #Shanxi Culture and Tourism was linked with Black Wukong 2 years ago# quickly became a hot search on Weibo. It is said that before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the number of inbound tourism orders in Shanxi Province soared by 180%! The Yungang Grottoes, which has a maximum capacity of only 40,000 people, had a real-time flow of more than 30,000 people!

The success of Xiaomi SU7 is essentially a success of narrative.

Would you say that Xiaomi SU7 is a high-end car, a mid-range car, or a civilian car? If you define Xiaomi SU7 in this way, I don’t think it will become a phenomenal product in 2024.

On March 30, 2021, Lei Jun officially announced at Xiaomi's spring conference that Xiaomi would build cars, but he did not talk about the product. Instead, he said: "I am willing to bet my entire reputation in life, lead the team personally, and fight for Xiaomi cars."

At the Xiaomi Auto launch event on March 28 this year, Lei Jun said: "Making cars is hard, but success must be cool. We are not content with mediocrity and are still fighting for our dreams. We want to become one of the top five automakers in the world through 15 to 20 years of hard work and strive for the overall rise of China's auto industry."

Although Xiaomi Motors was launched at the end of March this year, Lei Jun had laid out a three-year narrative for it on Weibo before that:

In the first stage, product trends are disclosed, such as the latest progress in autonomous driving technology, which arouses industry controversy;

In the second stage, information about product appearance and price is released to stimulate public speculation;

In the third stage, Reuters’ patents and battery life information raised user expectations;

In the fourth stage, the appearance, interior, system wallpaper and other information are leaked to make users feel attracted;

In the fifth stage, Lei Jun and Xiaomi executives responded to public controversy and speculation about Xiaomi Auto on Weibo and officially launched the product.

Xiaomi is a crossover to the automotive industry. If it starts by talking about how great its products are, it will most likely be criticized and questioned. However, when Lei Jun tells people the significance and original intention of what he is doing, it will invisibly form an emotional appeal. Only when people emotionally agree with Xiaomi's car-making will they be likely to buy Xiaomi's cars.

Data from Weibo shows that in the 1,122 days since Xiaomi officially announced its car manufacturing plan, Lei Jun and Xiaomi Auto appeared on the Weibo topic list a total of 958 times.

Lei Jun used narrative to help Xiaomi Auto break out of the original competition framework. It embodies Lei Jun's fighting spirit and has become a representative of a new lifestyle. Therefore, when other car manufacturers compete with Xiaomi Auto, they cannot win in the traditional way.

Narratives can not only eliminate competition, but marketers can also use narratives to explore new business opportunities and promote new products.

03 New Product Narrative: From Category Map to Public Opinion Map

In the Chinese market, a new product is launched every 3 minutes on average, and 90% of brands will launch new products within a year.

——Kantar Worldpanel

In 2024, the proportion of new product promotion expenses in China's brand marketing is expected to reach 34%, a year-on-year increase of 3%.

——"2024 China Advertiser Marketing Trend Survey Report"

Putting these two data together, we can easily see a signal: new product research and development is vital, but new product promotion is becoming increasingly difficult.

In the past, product selling points and product promotions mostly used category maps as indexes to find blank spots.

For example, in the footwear market, you see that no one is making yoga shoes, so you rush in and make yoga-specific shoes. But when categories are infinitely subdivided, and the gaps in each category are filled with people, it will become increasingly difficult to find blank spots.

Now, we should not only look at the category map on the shelf, but also pay attention to the "public opinion map" from time to time to see the focus of social topics and then develop new product narratives. When you really do this, everything will become simpler.

Around 2022, Human Joy launched a "Snail Noodles with Fried Egg in Tomato Sauce". The inspiration for this new product did not come from traditional qualitative or quantitative surveys, but the product flavor was established based on social media data.

At that time, humans happily discovered that many bloggers and users were already cooking with fried eggs and tomatoes. This dish had a lot of traffic and notes on the Internet, but no one had yet "instantized" this dish, so they did it first.

When you don't know where to get inspiration for new product development, my suggestion is to pay more attention to social opinions on Weibo and Xiaohongshu, and stay sensitive. Because public opinions hide potential consumption trends, and through public opinions you can know what people are afraid of and worried about now.

For example, spring is the season when sandstorms are frequent. Pharmaceutical brand Renault observed that topics such as #HarbinSandstorm#, #BeijingSandstorm#, and #TianjinSandstorm# were trending 9 times in one day. When sandstorms occur frequently, the symptoms of allergic rhinitis patients will worsen, and people will post complaints on Weibo.

Insighting into this atmosphere of public opinion, Renault immediately popularized medication knowledge on Weibo, telling everyone "how to coexist peacefully with allergic rhinitis" and "how to distinguish between a cold and allergic rhinitis" during sandstorms.

In the past, our logic for promoting a drug was mainly to promote the disease itself, such as using A for headache, B for leg pain, and C for children who don’t eat.

But when you pay attention to the public opinion map, you have a new set of promotion rhythms. Take Renault Cotton as an example. It can completely use allergy weather to make product promotion plans. Sandstorm is an allergy node, and there may be "pollen season", "cold air transit season", "smog season" and so on. These specific weather scenes may trigger users to discuss symptoms.

In addition to the deterministic and nodal trends of public opinion, there are also some occasional public opinion topics that can bring huge business opportunities.

For example, the first cup of milk tea in autumn has evolved from an occasional Weibo topic to the biggest node in the milk tea industry.

On the day of the beginning of autumn this year, Mixue Ice City sold 51 million cups, Heytea’s store sales increased by 600%, and Bawang Chaji’s sales increased by nearly 150% compared to the previous day. It is said that tea brands sold a total of 100 million cups of milk tea that day!

On the day of the beginning of autumn, a certain milk tea shop was overwhelmed with sales

Because it is difficult to predict the direction of user opinions and social issues, it is a test of marketers' insight, but in fact, marketers can completely rely on the assistance of various platform tools to do this. For example, Weibo has a social big data platform called Weibo CIRCLE, which can help us find future marketing opportunities.

Narratives can help companies expand their business by introducing new products, and can also help companies regain their former positions by promoting public opinion.

04 New narratives replace old narratives and regain market discourse power

Let’s take a look back at Nongfu Spring’s public relations campaign in 2024.

Zhong Shanshan also used traditional public relations methods to clarify online rumors, but the effect was not good. The real secret of Nongfu Spring's turnaround is to replace the old narrative with a new one.

He did not really clarify the truth of "The Farmer and the Snake" and calm people's emotions. He adjusted people's focus by leading more than 4,000 fruit farmers to become rich, spending 10 years looking for an ideal water source, and insisting on making sugar-free Oriental Leaves despite seven consecutive years of losses.

I think Mr. Zhong is well aware that in the world of public opinion, the more you debate, the more confused you become, rather than the more clear you become.

Today’s brands not only live in people’s hearts, but also live in the criticism of social media. Therefore, brand communication must have a deep understanding of the communication principles behind social media.

There is no truth, no right or wrong in social situations. If something is wrong at the beginning, it will only be magnified into a bigger mistake.

Therefore, never try to use the truth you believe in to change wrong public opinion. The key to changing cognition is what kind of topic you set first. Whatever topic you set, people will discuss. No one really cares what you agree with or oppose.

Crocs' hole shoes were once rated as "one of the ugliest objects on earth." However, instead of arguing that they are "not ugly," they launched a peak ugly-cute showdown with Birkenstocks on Weibo to see who is uglier.

You may not know that when a large number of people complained about Crocs being ugly, another group of people complained about Birkenstocks being extremely ugly. This comparison did not matter, the topic directly topped the hot search list.

In order to let everyone recognize Crocs' style in action, they also launched the #洞门玩出花# activity on Weibo, inviting everyone to show their DIY inspiration and wearing experience of Crocs. Some people posted their sports wear looks of Crocs, some posted their skills of matching slippers with socks, and some used shoe flowers to DIY it into a dark style...

Today, "Dongmen Literature" has pushed the discussion of Crocs to another climax. Some people say, "Crocs can inspire the good qualities of human nature: loyalty, innocence, simplicity, and a person who likes Crocs can't be that bad."

No one is harping on the ugliness of Crocs anymore. People are starting to say, "The world cannot live without Crocs, just like the West cannot live without Jerusalem."

The story of Crocs tells us: when faced with an unfavorable brand narrative, don’t fight it, but use a completely new narrative to overwhelm the original one. When more people discuss the second narrative, the original unfavorable narrative will naturally disappear.

To sum up

For market people in 2024, there is not only the pressure of performance, but also the embarrassment of "cooking without rice".

What’s even more frustrating is that the job requirements for Marketing are constantly changing, and every few years I have to force myself to abandon old tools and adapt to new tools.

Don’t resist the changes! In the environment of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, each force is desperately trying to defend its own territory. Don’t try to occupy a larger share. The KPI of marketers should change from "mind share" to "mind discourse power" to compete for the different levels of needs of the same group of customers!