Shoot out 10 films and only 1 of them becomes a hit. Even Taoist temples are joining in the fun. Have short dramas become a money-making magic weapon?

This article explains the short drama industry in the film and television industry. It starts with how short dramas with low costs have generated over 100 million yuan in box office revenue. How to make a hit is like buying a lottery ticket, and how the internal competition has intensified the decline of dividends. This article is suitable for most people to watch and understand the development of my country's short drama industry.

The short drama "Escape from the British Museum" became a hit, and the short drama "Wushuang" on the mini program consumed over 100 million yuan in just 8 days after its launch. The short drama track always attracts attention with unexpected hits.

The short drama track has developed rapidly. In three years, the scale of short dramas is expected to surpass that of theater movies. According to statistics from the State Administration of Film, the national movie box office in 2022 was 30.067 billion yuan, and the annual turnover of the short drama industry was close to 30 billion yuan. An internal employee of ByteDance revealed to Tech Planet that ByteDance is also building a platform for short dramas, so it scanned the market. At present, the average daily turnover of short dramas in the entire Chinese market is 80 million yuan, and the annual turnover of short dramas is nearly 30 billion yuan, and the paid short dramas are about more than 18 billion yuan.

Even though it does not have the popularity, artistry and fame of movies, it is undeniable that the scale of the short drama industry cannot be underestimated.

Cross-border players are still pouring in. A film and television producer told Tech Planet that even Taoist temples are now getting involved in short dramas. A Taoist temple invested in the filming of a short drama with a sweet pet theme, hoping to promote the Taoist temple's cultural and creative products through the short drama.

Stories of making a fortune with a small investment are constantly being played out in the short drama industry. There are always people who hope to "achieve financial freedom through a short drama" and leverage millions or tens of millions of dollars in revenue with hundreds of thousands of dollars. However, there is an irrefutable law in every industry: only a few people can really make money. An insider of Jiuzhou Culture, the largest platform for mini-program short dramas, told Tech Planet that about 70% of short dramas break even (10%-15% of which are hits), 30% flop due to low box office, and 10% of the flopped short dramas are pure losses.

1. The film costs hundreds of thousands of yuan to generate over 100 million yuan in box office revenue, and the actors’ daily pay rose to 20,000 yuan

Thanks to the paid tacky mini-programs, the wild growth of short dramas has become particularly popular.

Based on the length and platform, short dramas can now be divided into three types: "iQiyi, Youku, Tencent Video" (iQiyi, Youku) long video platform short dramas, Douyin Kuaishou micro short dramas, and mini-program short dramas. Among them, mini-program short dramas are almost at the bottom of the industry's "contempt chain", with the worst content reputation and the latest start, but the fastest development. According to ByteDance monitoring data, the annual turnover of paid short dramas, mainly mini-program short dramas, is about 18 billion yuan.

Mini Program short dramas have become one of the few formats in the film and television industry that have successfully implemented a commercial monetization model. Mini Program short dramas usually have about 80-100 episodes, each episode is 1-2 minutes long, and the first 10 episodes are free to watch. From the 11th episode onwards, you need to pay to recharge before you can watch it. It costs about 200 yuan for an average user to watch a short drama, which is more expensive than going to an IMAX theater to watch a 2-hour movie during the Spring Festival.

For short drama players, there are currently two types of income for short dramas on mini programs: copyright fees and user recharges. Li Li, a short drama production company, told Tech Planet that copyright fees are divided into two stages. In the first month of exclusive broadcast, the mini program short drama platform will pay the producer a copyright fee, usually 25% of the cost of the short drama. Then, in the second month of the short drama being online, it will be distributed on multiple platforms for secondary distribution, and the second round of distribution copyright fees will be paid to the producer.

The user recharge income is generally 3%-6% of the user recharge rebate given by the platform to the short drama production company during the first month of exclusive broadcast. This part of the income is the bulk of the income of short drama players, and almost determines whether the investment can be recovered. Li Li gave an example that the company's short drama cost 18 million yuan, and Jiuzhou Culture gave them a 6% rebate, which is nearly 1.2 million yuan. Excluding the cost of 500,000 yuan, the profit is nearly 700,000 yuan.

A more tempting benchmark case has been born. Recently, mini-program short dramas have ushered in a carnival moment. The industry has created a hit work "Wushuang" that has consumed over 100 million yuan. It is rumored that the second part will start shooting in October. The so-called consumption of over 100 million yuan means that the investment personnel have invested more than 100 million yuan in the short drama. A professional short drama pitcher told Tech Planet that the consumption of over 100 million yuan means that the pitcher has spent 100 million yuan. The pitcher will generally continue to increase the investment after seeing the ROI. "Wushuang" has consumed over 100 million yuan, which means that the user recharge box office has also exceeded 100 million yuan. If it is calculated that it costs 200 yuan to watch a short drama, then there are almost 500,000 users who pay for the drama.

A short drama with a small budget of several hundred thousand yuan has brought in over 100 million yuan in box office revenue. The story of getting rich overnight has attracted many players to enter the market to make money. It is not uncommon for individual investors to enter the market. A short drama investor told Tech Planet that she has set up a film and television company to make short dramas this year. So far, she has invested in four short dramas in mini programs, with an average cost of about 700,000 yuan per drama.

Wealth stories and star-making stories are staged together. Currently, mini-program short dramas also have their own top actors, such as Xu Yizhen, Sun Yue, Shu Tong, Shen Haonan, Lu Dandong, etc. Each actor has appeared in more than a dozen short dramas, and the last four are also known as the four male gods of short dramas.

As short dramas are very popular, the price of actors acting in short dramas is also rising. A producer said in a short drama industry group that you should not look for top stars because they have no schedule at all and you can’t get them even if you use your face. For example, Xu Yizhen needs to wait in line for three months to wait for a schedule, and the daily salary has risen to 20,000 yuan. The package price for a drama is 12-15 yuan. It is also difficult to schedule other better actors. The nearest schedule will not be until November. A year ago, their salary was only a few thousand yuan.

2. Only one out of 10 hits is a hit. Hitting a hit is like buying a lottery ticket.

The short drama industry, where small investments bring big returns, is not always a get-rich-quick story.

In May 2021, Chen Xi established a film and television company and officially entered the short drama market. In more than two years, Chen Xi's company has successively taken advantage of Kuaishou, Douyin, and long video short dramas, and invested in a total of 11 short dramas. Among them, there are 9 Kuaishou short dramas (2min*24 episodes format), 1 Douyin short drama, and a "Youku, iQiyi and Tencent Video" horizontal screen drama (10min*18 episodes format).

Douyin and Kuaishou share revenues based on the number of views. After 10 short dramas, Chen Xi's company made a slight profit, and some of them were small hits. Chen Xi told Tech Planet that they were the first to try Kuaishou's short dramas. The short dramas they produced had over 100 million views on Kuaishou, and successfully made 5 leading actors famous, becoming the top ancient style dramas on the entire network, with a cumulative increase of over 10 million fans. Another short drama had a cumulative number of views of nearly 500 million on Kuaishou. However, the short drama they launched on Douyin did not perform well, and they did not get a share of the revenue in the end.

Since the Spring Festival last year, Chen Xi has adjusted the platform cooperation strategy, switching from cooperation partners such as Kuaishou and Douyin to long video platforms. In her opinion, the short video platform short drama market dividend is still very large from July to August 2021. However, the dividend period is only half a year, the industry began to change, the number of players increased, and the traffic became dispersed. The company's advantages are no longer there, so Chen Xi considered transforming to make medium and short dramas, longer and more refined short dramas, about 10 minutes per episode.

The trend of mini-program short dramas has been rising since last year. Since the second half of last year, people have been suggesting to Chen Xi that she should make mini-program short dramas. However, in her opinion, mini-program short dramas are too risky and cannot guarantee a guaranteed profit. Moreover, mini-program short dramas cannot be called works of art, but are purely a tool for profit. Therefore, after comprehensive consideration, Chen Xi did not follow the trend and finally planned mini-program short dramas.

Compared with medium-length and micro-short dramas, the profitability of the popular mini-program short dramas is actually not as impressive as imagined.

Jiuzhou Culture is recognized as the largest short drama platform by practitioners of mini-program short dramas. It has a large platform scale, a large number of popular short dramas, and is more friendly to short drama producers. It gives the latter users the highest rebate of up to 6%.

Jiuzhou Culture, a platform, releases 40-50 new short dramas every month. The cost of short dramas on mini programs with different themes is also different. Jiuzhou staff said that urban short dramas cost less, about 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, and those above 300,000 yuan are considered high-quality. God of War dramas cost 300,000 to 400,000 yuan, and costume short dramas are slightly more expensive, costing about 400,000 to 500,000 yuan.

However, it is not that easy to make a profit. A staff member of Jiuzhou Culture told Tech Planet that about 70% of Jiuzhou short dramas can break even, 30% flop, and of the 30% that flop, 10% are pure losses. Among the 70% of short dramas that break even, about 10%-15% of them can reach a box office of about 10 million yuan, which is equivalent to a hit rate of about 10%. Even if the short dramas that break even make a profit, they will not make much.

Most of the money invested in traffic flows into the Douyin platform. Jiuzhou staff told Tech Planet that Jiuzhou has 100-200 mini-programs mounted on Douyin. Clicking the link below the Douyin video will jump to the short drama mini-program. Most of the money invested in traffic is divided by the platform. Before investing in traffic, they will first make a traffic test model and set an output ratio. The ROI (return on investment) generally needs to reach 1:1.1-1.5. If the output ratio is positive, the investment will be increased. If it is negative, the investment will be reduced.

3. Involution intensifies, and dividends recede

Compared with the explosion of short dramas last year, the short drama market this year has shown signs of a decline. According to statistics from Tech Planet based on public data, from January to August 2023, the number of short dramas filed with the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television was 1,695, while in the first half of 2022, the number of short dramas planned and filed with the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television system was as high as more than 2,800.

Screenwriter Xiao Hui feels the same way. She feels that there are fewer short and medium-length dramas and micro-short dramas this year than last year. The industry was in a state of mourning in the first half of the year. She has also received fewer short drama scripts this year. It seems that everyone is working on mini-program short dramas. However, because of her creative cleanliness, she does not plan to accept the demand for screenwriters for mini-program short dramas. The situation began to improve in the second half of the year. Several screenwriter friends she is familiar with have almost all been promoting a short drama.

The window of opportunity for short drama bonuses seems to be gradually closing.

Li Yang, a short drama producer, participated in nearly 50 or 60 short dramas on mini programs last year, but this year, he completely changed his job and stopped doing short drama business. In his opinion, the industry is competitive and tiring, and the personal income of producers is not high in the end, which is not worth the loss. The industry is involuted, and the point of how to attract users to pay can kill a group of people.

Last year, a hit short play made Li Yang's platform earn millions of yuan, but there is no fixed pattern for short plays in mini programs to become hits. In Li Yang's view, the current strategy for short plays is still based on probability, which is equivalent to the platform investing in more than ten or twenty plays a month, relying on the probability of the projects. If you are lucky enough, a short play can recover all the costs. But only one out of a dozen plays a month can make millions, just like buying lottery tickets, the probability is extremely low, and it is not suitable for individual investors.

The cost of short plays this year is no longer comparable to that of last year. In the past, a short play could be produced for 100,000 or 200,000 yuan, and 800,000 yuan was a high-end product. Now, most short plays start at 300,000 yuan. For short plays below 300,000 yuan, the script, costumes, props, actors, and filming locations have almost no advantages. A high-end short play requires at least 1.5 million yuan. "Last year, there should have been a 30% profit, but this year there is none."

The number of short plays that failed to meet expectations at the box office began to increase. A short play producer told Tech Planet that they invested 300,000 yuan to produce a short play, but the box office only reached 3 million yuan in four days. A short play with a cost of 300,000 yuan, if the profit sharing ratio is 6%, needs to reach 5 million yuan at the box office to make a profit.

Short drama pitchers are also wondering if the short drama market is going down. Pitcher Xiaobing told Tech Planet that there are many factors that affect the ROI of short dramas, depending on the content of the drama itself and the producer. For example, the ROI of Honey is basically around 1.6, while the ROI of his own company is not that high, generally around 1.35, and the effect of streaming is not good. The data of novice streamers is even worse. A pitcher said that his streaming data is not optimistic. When the ROI is good, it doesn’t increase the volume, and when the volume increases, the ROI is not good. It is almost the "industry death light".

Screenwriters of mini-program short dramas have begun to flee one after another. In the story of how short dramas make people rich, screenwriters have always been far away from the center of wealth. For a 100-episode mini-program short drama, each episode has 500 words, and the screenwriter only earns 10,000 to 15,000 yuan in the end. A screenwriter of mini-program short dramas told Tech Planet that most short drama scripts on the market cost about 10,000 yuan per book, which is equivalent to 0.2 yuan per word.

Xiao Si, a screenwriter who used to write movies, also said that the screenwriters of online movies used to share 3% of the revenue, but now the screenwriters of short dramas only share 0.6%. For screenwriters of mini-program short dramas, the ceiling is relatively low, there is almost no room for growth, the screenwriters have very little say, and the talent turnover in the industry is relatively large.

In the entire short drama industry, traffic is becoming more and more concentrated, basically leaning towards the top short dramas, with more and more short dramas being the runner-ups.

Author: Zhai Yuanyuan WeChat public account: Tech Planet