2025 Consumption Outlook: Rational Consumption, Emotional "Breakthrough"

As 2024 comes to an end, we stand on the threshold of the new year and look back at the consumer market of the past year, which is full of challenges and opportunities. From catering, tea drinks to the second dimension culture, the article explores how consumers can seek emotional satisfaction and experience while consuming rationally.

2024 has passed. Looking back at the turbulent consumer market in the past year, it is too general to summarize it with the phrase "opportunities and challenges coexist". Because in the external environment where consumers are becoming more rational, the competition between brands is becoming more and more fierce.

Whether it is the competition for the existing market that leads to the "passive roll" of practitioners in various segments, or consumer brands actively developing new businesses and laying out new tracks for the incremental market, it has brought new vitality and changes to the entire consumer market.

For consumers, pursuing "cost-effectiveness" is the basic principle of maintaining life, but beyond the limited consumption budget, people still expect more diverse consumption choices and richer consumption experience. Therefore, under the rational decision-making logic, there is also an implicit expectation for market supply, which has created various new consumption phenomena.

At the beginning of the new year, Jingzhe Research Institute attempted to capture new trends in future consumer market growth from various new consumption phenomena that emerged in the past year.

1. Food: Hotpot melee, and the emergence of local-style restaurants

In 2024, the offline real economy is still on the road to "recovery", and in the catering industry where competition has always been fierce, the hot pot track, where "survival of the fittest" is being staged every moment, has become a microcosm of the catering industry in the past year.

According to Qichacha data, as of November 2024, the number of domestic hot pot companies will reach 423,100, an increase from 2023. However, from January to May in the first half of the year, a total of 22,600 new hot pot-related companies were registered, and 26,600 were cancelled or revoked. Behind the seemingly flat data changes is a quiet industry reshuffle.

Looking at the hot pot industry in 2024, diversified competition has become the key word for industry change.

In order to attract offline customers, price concessions have become an important means of competition in the catering industry, and have also pushed small hot pot to become a popular category in the catering market. According to huge algorithm data, the search index for small hot pot was only 19028 in 2022, but in 2024, this number soared to 371639, a nearly twenty-fold increase. In 2024, the cumulative exposure of small hot pot-related topics on the Douyin platform was almost close to 5 billion times, of which the "small hot pot" topic tag had more than 1.38 billion views, "self-service small hot pot" had 930 million views, and "rotating small hot pot" had 1.22 billion views.

Compared with the traditional hotpot operation mode of charging for ordering meals, small hotpot adopts a self-service mode of charging per seat, or a semi-self-service mode of charging by signing, which saves service costs and further lowers the consumption threshold. In first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, "29.9 yuan per person for a small self-service hotpot" and "no more than 40 yuan per person to eat until full" have become the core competitiveness of small hotpot. In order to compete for consumers, some businesses have even launched 1 yuan and 2 yuan hotpot bases, which have made many urban workers add it to their lunch alternative list.

Compared with the "extremely low price" of small hot pot, street hot pot, as another popular category in 2024, relies on the atmosphere.

Street hotpot stalls are usually opened on the street or in open-air places. They are far away from shopping malls, saving shop money, and full of fireworks. Compared with indoor restaurants in shopping malls, diners are closer to each other when enjoying street hotpot, which allows them to relax and enjoy the food, thus returning to the true nature of life.

In fact, the price of street hotpot is generally quite affordable, and is often charged by weight. Common meat dishes are priced at 5-6 yuan per two, vegetarian dishes are 2-3 yuan per two, and the base of the hotpot is around 12-15 yuan. Calculated based on 2-4 people per table, the average consumption per table is between 160-180 yuan.

In addition to the "new hot pot" that have achieved popularity through product innovation, traditional catering brands have also increased their efforts to break through online in 2024.

At the beginning of 2024, Haidilao launched a live broadcast event on Douyin to celebrate its 30th anniversary. The total transaction volume of the live broadcast room exceeded 100 million, and the exposure of the live broadcast room reached 200 million, ranking first in the Douyin life service platform group buying list in the country. During the Double 11 period, Haidilao opened a new official flagship store on Taobao and sold Haidilao member-exclusive vouchers in cooperation with Li Jiaqi. The transaction volume of a single live broadcast exceeded 10 million yuan.

The moves by traditional hotpot brands to increase their investment in local life indicate that when offline customer traffic drops sharply, catering brands can not only continue to compete in internal business operations, but also attract customer traffic online, utilize local life traffic on content platforms, and increase the certainty of offline conversions.

Breaking out of the hot pot track, the popularity of "Jiangxi Stir-fry" in the summer of 2024 also made "local restaurants" with their down-to-earth atmosphere and affordable prices popular.

Jingzhe Research Institute mentioned in the article "The more rustic the restaurants, the more popular they are?" that since 2020, a large number of chain restaurant brands have faced operating pressure and have turned to pre-prepared dishes as an important measure to reduce the operating costs of restaurant stores, but this has also caused strong resistance from consumers. However, local restaurants that have always emphasized fresh cooking have unexpectedly received a huge amount of traffic and stood out.

When "local restaurants" become the new top of the market with their homely taste and down-to-earth local style, we can see that the target consumers of the catering industry actually pursue emotional value in addition to "color, fragrance and taste". This also adds a new dimension to the future competition focus of the catering industry on the basis of price, taste and service.

2. Drink: New tea drinks put price war on hold and switch to full competition

After experiencing the "horse race" of store expansion and continuous price wars, the new tea beverage industry is now moving towards a situation of full competition. Among them, developing product peripherals seems to have become one of the effective ways to enhance brand image and increase customer stickiness. In terms of the selection of co-branded IPs, since the two-dimensional population and the new tea beverage audience are highly overlapped, various game, animation, and film and television IPs have become the first choice for co-branding of new tea beverage brands.

In the article "2024 New Tea Drinks: Not Products, But Peripherals" published by Jingzhe Research Institute in August 2024, it was mentioned that some new tea drink brands will launch at least one co-branded product almost every month. And the co-branded peripherals on the market have developed into "peripheral gift packages" mainly consisting of theme cups, cup sleeves, acrylic boards and postcards.

The co-branded peripherals of new tea drinks are not only more diverse, but also more creative. This year on White Valentine's Day, Heytea launched a limited edition "marriage certificate" peripheral for O-game players in cooperation with "Hiru y y oto no Yakumo". Fans can combine their own photos and character cards into a marriage certificate photo and put it in the certificate, and match it with the character's signature stickers to customize their own certificate. Using a small peripheral to attract users to participate deeply also provides a new means for sales conversion.

In addition to achieving the goal of "attracting fans" and conversion through co-branded IPs, new tea brands such as Mixue Bingcheng, Shanghai Auntie, Heytea, and Chabaidao have all opened chain coffee brands. Some brands have also achieved multi-dimensional competition by expanding their business scope to include alcoholic beverages, snacks, etc.

For example, Cha Yan Yue Se sold the pecan crumbs on the Orchid Latte separately at the beginning of its establishment, and then began to sell snacks such as crisp bread cubes, sweet triangles, and cheese biscuits in offline stores and online channels. In 2024, Cha Yan Yue Se first launched the tavern brand "Day and Night Poetry, Wine and Tea·Art and Culture Tavern" in April, and later launched its first "Hard Discount Mass Mart GO" theme concept store in August, mainly selling snacks, tea and daily necessities.

According to the Jingzhe Research Institute, Mixue Ice City's Tmall flagship store sells spicy snacks such as spicy strips, French fries, nuts, and bread; Shanghai Auntie also launched snacks such as bread, cakes, biscuits, and potato chips in its Tmall flagship store. At the same time, Heytea has launched snacks such as mixed nuts, sandwich biscuits, and popcorn, while Nayuki Tea, which founded its brand with "milk tea + European bread", has also tried to sell freeze-dried yogurt and freeze-dried fruit.

In terms of user operation, in order to increase brand popularity and establish a good reputation, some new tea brands have also resorted to "out-of-the-box tactics". For example, Bawang Tea, which has quickly become popular in recent years, has launched a "cup tearing gift" activity every time a new store opens, attracting users to participate in the "cup tearing" challenge on short video platforms, and using online content to attract traffic to offline stores.

In addition, in May, November and December 2024, Bawang Tea Princess held the "Guess the Password to Win a Free Coupon" event many times, trying innovative methods such as pet-friendly and silent stores, successfully raising brand awareness and opening up the online and offline conversion path from traffic to sales. While helping the brand to gain popularity on social media, it also increased brand loyalty.

The all-out competition in the new tea beverage industry in 2024 is the inevitable result of the industry’s internal circulation. The emergence of various new gameplays also shows that the competition in the existing market increasingly needs to find new angles.

3. Entertainment: The second dimension leads the consumption, and the theater economy staged a "Renaissance"

Looking at the consumer market, the ACG crowd has become a presence that cannot be ignored among the groups that contribute to the sales growth of brands. According to iMedia Research, the number of Chinese ACG users will climb to 503 million in 2024. The huge user group has also brought new consumption formats in addition to ACG-related fields such as animation, comics, games, and novels.

In 2024, the "millet economy" has become the hottest economic phenomenon in the consumer market. Thanks to fans' love for the two-dimensional virtual characters and stories, peripheral products such as badges, standees, key chains, postcards, laser tickets, etc. made based on the two-dimensional IP have also become popular products deeply sought after by the two-dimensional community.

Although the common millet on the market is priced at only a few dozen yuan, the consumption power brought by the population base of hundreds of millions is very considerable. Star Chart data monitoring shows that during the Tmall Double 11 in 2024, the sales of stores under game manufacturers such as miHoYo and Paper Games both exceeded 100 million yuan. According to the "2024-2025 China Millet Economic Market Analysis Report", the scale of China's millet economy market will reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 40.63% over 2023. It is expected that the scale of China's millet economy market will exceed 300 billion yuan in 2029.

The millet economy generates not only commodity sales, but also offline customer traffic contributed by the ACG crowd. For example, in first- and second-tier cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Wuhan, offline business districts with ACG commodity sales as the core selling point have emerged, and more than 60 ACG business districts have been created in more than 20 first- and second-tier cities across the country.

By integrating 2D IP elements into offline scenes and creating a unique 2D atmosphere, and concentrating various 2D brand stores including action figure stores, cosplay clothing customization, anime theme restaurants and other 2D-related products and services, the 2D business district can not only attract the core 2D audience, but the abundant offline customer flow can also spill over to the original traditional consumer formats such as catering, clothing, and cinemas, so that the consumption power of 2D users can be fully converted in the three-dimensional world.

As one of the important forms of cultural consumption, offline performances have also become "two-dimensional" in 2024. A large number of musicians and CVs with two-dimensional fans have appeared at offline music festivals. Due to the large number of two-dimensional fans, they have even become a guarantee of box office sales for music festivals. In addition, idol groups derived from virtual idols and two-dimensional IPs have stepped onto the three-dimensional stage with the assistance of technologies such as holographic projection, motion capture, and real-time rendering, satisfying fans' desire to interact closely with idols.

Not only do well-known musicians and IP idols have a bigger stage, but underground idols originating from the two-dimensional culture are also taking root in the domestic market. Every weekend, a 2-3 hour underground idol performance will be staged in small theaters and livehouses in shopping malls in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, Hangzhou and other places. In addition to buying tickets for the performance, fans will also buy special coupons to obtain the right to interact closely with designated idols, such as shaking hands, taking photos, signing, chatting, etc.

From a commercial perspective, the emergence of underground idols has created a new form of cultural and entertainment consumption, while also providing emotional value for the ACG community and satisfying the spiritual needs of young urban groups. Similar consumption formats are also reflected in niche performing arts such as immersive drama and musicals.

The Jingzhe Research Institute once introduced in "Young People Are Addicted to Immersive Drama: Spending Money and Entering the Drama" that the Shanghai version of "Sleepless Night" was introduced to China in 2016. With rich scenes, flexible interactions, and ingenious main and side plots, it can bring new experiences to the audience every time they watch the show, attracting many drama fans to watch the show repeatedly. Some die-hard fans have watched it more than 280 times to unlock the multi-line plot.

The "2024 China Immersive Industry Development White Paper" shows that as of 2023, the scale of China's immersive industry consumer market has reached 92.7 billion yuan, and the total output value has reached 193.34 billion yuan. It is expected to exceed the 240 billion yuan mark in 2024.

At the same time, French musicals are also popular across the country in 2024. From the box office and word-of-mouth success of "Don Giovanni" to the popular "Rock Mozart", many young drama fans have been attracted to go to small theaters to watch six performances in three days and snap up tickets with a unit price of more than 1,000 yuan.

The 2024 China Musical Market Annual Report jointly released by the China Performance Industry Association, Beijing Tianqiao Art Center, and Lighthouse Professional Edition shows that from January to October 2024, there will be 13,600 musical performances nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% over 2023; the box office will reach 1.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%; the number of audiences will be 5.8213 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. It is estimated that in 2024, the number of musical performances will reach 17,000, the box office will exceed 1.6 billion yuan, and the number of audiences will exceed 7 million.

The rise of immersive drama and musicals shows that, although the current market size cannot be compared with other common consumer goods, young consumers have shifted their attention from common daily consumer goods to more diverse consumer formats. Although repurchases generated by niche culture and interest consumption are still the way for these "new entertainment formats" to survive, as the user scale continues to expand, the resulting incremental market may also bring a "Renaissance" to the theater economy.

IV. Conclusion

In the "2024 China Consumption Trends Survey: Cautious Expectations and Potential" released by McKinsey in May 2024, a trend was mentioned, that is, consumers' willingness to save is constantly increasing, but at the macroeconomic level, consumption potential has not been fully released.

Data from the People's Bank of China also confirms this trend. In the first 11 months of 2024, RMB deposits increased by 19.39 trillion yuan, of which household deposits (simply understood as the money deposited by residents and families in banks and other financial institutions) surged by 12.07 trillion yuan.

From this, we can see that consumers are not without money but unwilling to spend it. In other words, due to the economic environment or personal psychological state, consumers do not have the confidence to take money out of their savings accounts for consumption. Therefore, how to rebuild consumer confidence while excluding external factors such as the economic environment is a key issue that the current consumer industry needs to solve.

From the new consumption phenomena in 2024, we can see that there are three solutions to this problem: First, by creating the ultimate "price-performance ratio" and rich experience, to win the recognition and favor of more consumers in the existing market; second, to improve competitiveness, enhance the added value of products and services to consolidate brand competitiveness, and then look for new growth in business scope; third, to identify incremental users, target emerging incremental groups, bring in user thinking transformation or innovative business formats, achieve overtaking on curves or find another way.

No matter how difficult 2024 was, it has passed. Facing the brand new 2025, practitioners in the consumer industry must not only rebuild consumer confidence, but also be more cautious and proactive in seeing the certainty of growth in the consumer market. If the result of rational judgment has become an inevitable trend, then we should achieve a "breakthrough" under the guidance of emotional beliefs.

Although we don’t know which will come first, an accident or tomorrow, having the mentality of believing that “tomorrow will be better” can at least relieve the anxiety of the moment and face future challenges more calmly.

Author | Bai Lu This article is written by the operator author [Jingzhe Research Institute], WeChat public account: [Jingzhe Research Institute], original/authorized to be published in the operator, and reproduction is prohibited without permission.

The title image is from Unsplash, based on the CC0 protocol.