Young people "quit" second-hand trendy toys: from making huge profits to losing money

Why has the once-hot trendy toy market been declining? This article will help you understand the industry status of the second-hand market. This article is also recommended for companies or individual operators engaged in second-hand trading.

Once upon a time, the popularity of the trendy toy market was eye-catching. In order to grab a pair of AJ1 shoes, a limited blind box, etc., people started queuing up in offline stores from early morning. 2020 has become a highlight moment for the trendy toy economy.

According to the data on trendy blind boxes of toys released by Xianyu in mid-to-late December 2020, there are more than 440,000 blind box players trading on Xianyu, and the transaction volume of idle blind boxes exceeded 120 million yuan in November 2020, an increase of more than 70% year-on-year. Due to their scarcity, the prices of some hidden and hot-selling blind boxes are even dozens of times higher than the original price.

But nowadays, the trendy toys that were once so popular among young people have become quiet, especially in the second-hand market. The mention of trendy toys is more like a synonym for "quit" and "recovery". Not only can the second-hand goods sold not cover the cost of purchase at the time, but there are also many trendy toys sold at prices lower than the issue price in the second-hand market.

For example, the second-hand price of the "Powerpuff Girls" released by Pop Mart in June this year is now around 1,400 yuan in the Qiandao Chaowan Community, while on Dewu, the final price for second-hand merchants is more than 1,300-1,400 yuan, both lower than the official launch price of 1,499 yuan. According to Sina Technology, in July, there were more than 50,000 notes on Xiaohongshu about Pop Mart's "quit pit".

"The trendy toys I stockpiled worth hundreds of thousands of dollars are completely lost. Young people seem to no longer be interested in blind boxes and figures." Li Heng said helplessly.

Li Heng told Tech Planet that he is a businessman specializing in second-hand trendy toys. He has experienced speculation in shoes, coins, blind boxes, etc., and he used to make a lot of money. Since 2020, with the rapid rise of the trendy toy economy, Li Heng has increased his focus on the trendy toy business and has invested more than 100,000 yuan. But now he is about to go bankrupt, and there are many second-hand dealers like Li Heng who are facing difficulties.

Why are young people unable to afford second-hand trendy toys?

First, the second-hand trendy toy market is no longer what it used to be

The trendy toy market was almost crazy four years ago.

On June 3, 2019, Uniqlo was packed with people, from sprinting 100 meters to forcing their way in through the door. The scene was in chaos, all for a 99-yuan co-branded T-shirt by Uniqlo and the trendy art brand KAWS. In the second-hand market, the price of this shirt has also been hyped up to thousands of yuan.

In 2021, on Douyin, the imported sneakers "Lightning Inverted Hook", which had just been launched on the market, had an original price of 1,599 yuan, but has been hyped up to around 20,000 yuan, and even reached a maximum of 69,999 yuan, a premium of more than 40 times.

In January 2022, the "DIMOO co-branded blind box package" jointly launched by KFC and blind box seller Pop Mart caused a rush of consumers to buy. The crazy behavior of consumers also caused the China Consumers Association to issue an article criticizing KFC by name, saying that some consumers did not hesitate to spend 10,494 yuan at one time to buy 106 packages.

It can be said that trendy shoes, trendy clothes, blind boxes and other trendy toy tracks have become popular in the eyes of capital and consumers.

Compared with the bustling market four years ago, today's second-hand trendy toy market is still "hot", but this "hot" scene is based on selling at low prices, getting out of the pit, and recovering money, which is far less than the previous second-hand market that can bring high returns, high profits, and high premiums.

Taking Xianyu’s official data as an example, during the 618 shopping festival this year, rare and out-of-print blind boxes could be purchased directly on Xianyu’s trendy toy channel, which became a driving force for order growth. However, many new blind boxes were sold at a 30% discount from the official price, which was almost a loss-making sale. In addition, celebrity photo cards, cotton dolls, etc. also grew by more than 100% during the 618 shopping festival, but the prices were much lower than the previous second-hand prices.

Tech Planet discovered that the prices of previously well-known and high-premium trendy toys have also fallen in the second-hand market. For example, some products such as "Yeezy" and "AJ1" in the trendy shoe market, as well as some blind box products, have shown varying degrees of price reduction trends, with a drop of around a few hundred yuan.

In order to help second-hand merchants recover their losses through sales, various platforms have also made every effort to provide subsidies. For example, Qiandao launched the "July Consignment Recovery Exclusive Subsidy" activity, which can be used to reduce merchants' expenses in identifying goods. Dewu launched the "Be the First to Transaction, Share 100 Million Commissions" subsidy activity from June 20. Merchants who hit the rebate quota for the goods can get the actual technical service fee rebate (seller coupon) for the order, which can be used for the actual technical service fees for subsequent orders of all categories of goods.

Li Heng believes that the current situation in the second-hand trendy toy market is caused by, on the one hand, the changes in the market and the maturity of consumption concepts, young people are more rational in consumption. For non-essential products such as second-hand trendy toys, they no longer blindly follow the trend to buy them, but pay more attention to the actual value of the products and their own needs. On the other hand, the design of trendy toys lacks innovation and is highly homogenized. The style and image of some trendy toys have not changed for many years, and the players' sense of freshness has gradually disappeared. In addition, the second-hand trendy toy market is full of fakes, and it is difficult to distinguish the real from the fake.

2. Recovering from losses and quitting the game

"I can't afford it anymore. The second-hand prices are getting higher and higher now. I'd better sell them quickly and get out of here," said Shi Xiaolong, who runs a second-hand trendy toy business.

Shi Xiaolong told Tech Planet that some limited edition and scarce styles were in short supply in the market, and prices kept rising, which was full of investment opportunities. High returns could be obtained through collecting and trading second-hand trendy toys. Two years ago, an investment of 100,000 yuan could earn more than double the money. The value of hidden models in some popular blind boxes may increase significantly in a short period of time. As long as the goods are received and sold quickly, more money can be earned.

"I invested almost 100,000 yuan this year and hoarded some rare blind boxes, cards, figures, etc., but they are basically in a state of loss. At present, a conservative estimate is that 50,000 yuan has been trapped. I heard that larger hoarders have lost more than 100,000 yuan. Now the selling price in the second-hand market is either lower than the recycling price at the time, or lower than the official price," said Shi Xiaolong.

In addition to the price drop, the selling prices in the second-hand trendy toy market have also been rising. Tech Planet found on the Thousand Islands that some merchants with large stockpiles of figures have been selling them at lower prices every day. "They are afraid that someone will pay a higher price than them, so they want to sell them quickly," a Thousand Islands merchant told Tech Planet.

In order to sell their goods faster, some businesses have set up second-hand trendy toy groups, using platforms such as Douyin, Xianyu, and Tieba to attract trendy toy enthusiasts to take over.

In addition to these merchants who hoard goods, some young people who are into trendy toys are also selling their trendy toys. "Although I like large trendy toys very much, it's a lie to say that I don't care about their value preservation. For example, the "Oh Zai" under the very popular "Heyone Black Toy" was originally priced at 129 yuan. After its first release, it was sold for several thousand yuan in the second-hand market, and then fell sharply. This roller coaster-like price fluctuation is really unbearable. I can only sell it to recover the loss," a sophomore college student told Tech Planet.

The college student also believes that in addition to the decline in value retention, some trendy toy styles or types are prone to aesthetic fatigue after becoming too popular, and people lose their sense of freshness and interest in them. Now, a large number of the same trendy toys are pouring into the second-hand market, which reduces their scarcity, greatly reduces their collection value, and reduces their appeal to themselves.

Tech Planet found that in some trading communities, there are more and more sales information with titles such as quitting, eating dirt and rushing out, and recovering losses, such as the notebook trading bar and lolita trading bar in Baidu Tieba, which have a popularity of over 10,000. A moderator of a trendy toy trading bar told Tech Planet that the number of trading posts in the bar has been rising since the second half of last year. This year, there are dozens of new trading posts released almost every day, most of which are sold at a loss.

3. Price speculation as an investment target is unsustainable

In essence, whether the second-hand market can continue to be hot still depends on the feedback from consumers in the primary market, which requires consumers, manufacturers, and second-hand platforms to work together to solve.

As for manufacturers, companies in the trendy toy sector may pay more attention to product innovation and quality improvement to meet the increasingly discerning aesthetic needs of young people and alleviate the problem of aesthetic fatigue.

In 2023, TOP TOY created five hit products with sales exceeding 10 million, including the Coolome Building Blocks Semi-Mechanical Scale, Sanrio Mini Daruma Series Blind Bags, Sanrio Family Fortune Cat Tumbler Series Figures, Coolome Poker Kingdom Series Figures, and Coolome Werewolf Series Figures. In addition, the number of single products exceeding 1 million in the year has reached 200, doubling that of 2022.

The application of NFC technology is expected to bring revolutionary changes to the second-hand trendy toy market. For example, Pop Mart has worked with the classic mobile game "Onmyoji" to install NFC chips, creating new cross-border possibilities for the "dimensional breakthrough" between trendy toys and games.

On the second-hand platform, a transparent and fair trading environment needs to be established.

Wei Chong, who works as an operator at a second-hand platform for trendy toys, told Tech Planet that in the past, blind following and speculation occurred from time to time, resulting in drastic fluctuations in market prices. The platform should guide consumers to pay more attention to the artistic value and cultural connotation of trendy toys themselves, rather than just their short-term investment value. It is crucial to establish an active trendy toy community. Let enthusiasts exchange ideas, share collection experiences, and organize offline gatherings here. Such a community can not only enhance consumer stickiness, but also promote the dissemination and development of trendy toy culture.

As young consumers, they may play a more rational and mature role in the future second-hand trendy toy market. On the one hand, some young people may change from simple consumers to participants, not only buying and collecting, but also participating in the design and transformation of trendy toys, injecting more creativity and vitality into the market. On the other hand, as their understanding of the market deepens, young people will pay more attention to the cultural value and artistic connotation of products in transactions, rather than just focusing on price fluctuations. They may be more cautious in choosing investment objects and be wary of price speculation.

With the changes in various factors, the future of the second-hand trendy toy market is full of variables.

Author: Chen Qiaohui

Source: WeChat public account "Tech Planet" (ID: 1089302)

This article is authorized by @Tech Planet to be published on Operation Party. Any reproduction without permission is prohibited.

The title image is from Unsplash, based on the CC0 agreement