Apple, no more magic

Still brainwashed by the "far ahead" slogan, the iPhone 15 was quietly released in the early morning of September 13, but it did not make as many splashes as in previous years. This article starts with the latest Apple press conference and product features, analyzes Apple's lack of innovation and market reaction, and explores the impact of Huawei's return on Apple. Whether you are a "far ahead" party or an Apple fan, it is recommended to read~

For the mobile phone industry, September 13 is definitely a day that will go down in history.

The two top high-end machine brands clashed at the same time, just like the decisive battle between Ximen Chuxue and Yiye Gucheng on the top of the Forbidden City.

After a long stalemate, the outcome is determined by just one move.

In full view of the public, Apple released the iPhone 15 series and the new Apple Watch, the industry's first 3nm chip, the entire series embraces USB-C charging, and 48 million pixels. Apple has increased the quantity without raising the price, and although it has pushed the hardware to the extreme, it seems that it has not stimulated users' "pleasure points".

Some people commented that "Apple is really old, and it is obvious that it lacks innovation"; some people lamented that "in the end of innovation, it threw away the things of its ancestors. After all, the physical mute button was once a status symbol for noble Apple users"; some people jokingly said that "the Apple 15pro turned out to be a gaming phone."

Apparently, the phone has reached its limit and Apple’s magic has failed.

In contrast, at Huawei's press conference a few hours ago, Yu Chengdong did not mention Mate 60 at all, and only secretly increased the shipment target of Mate 60 by 20%. Huawei lit the fuse like a raider, leaving only its back at the explosion scene.

Without a press conference, overwhelming publicity or celebrity endorsements, Huawei declared war on Apple in a very silent way.

In fact, even if Huawei's "sneak attack" is put aside, Apple doesn't have much time left in the market. In the eight years since Cook launched two innovative products, Apple Watch in 2014 and Airpods in 2016, everyone has been waiting for Cook to transfer his innovative capabilities to core products such as mobile phones, cars, and MR glasses, but what he got was only marginal innovation and useless products.

Since ChatGPT, countless people have cited the "iPhone moment", but Apple alone has not created another "iPhone moment".

With the overall decline in the mobile phone market and strong resistance from competitors, is Apple still worth looking forward to?

1. The coolest science and technology Spring Festival Gala

This year should be the coldest autumn new product launch conference in Apple’s history.

Just because the press conference hasn't even started yet, Wall Street has poured cold water on Apple.

The first to launch the attack was Dan Niles, founder of the hedge fund Satori Fund, who publicly shorted Apple's stock, believing that the technological breakthrough of Huawei's Mate60 Pro would intensify the competition faced by Apple. Later, JPMorgan Chase released a report lowering Apple's target stock price. JPMorgan Chase said that the upcoming Apple iPhone 15 has no substantial upgrades, so it will not attract a large number of users to upgrade.

In China, Luo Yonghao, who claims to be the "parent company" of Apple, also publicly stated that "Apple has nothing new." This video was cut into pieces by netizens, and it seems that everyone is waiting for Apple to step down from the altar. As a result, Apple's stock price has fallen by 6.05% in the past five days, and its market value has evaporated by $178.349 billion (about RMB 1.3 trillion).

This is indeed the case. Apple’s fall conference, once known as the Spring Festival Gala of the technology circle, is becoming more and more boring.

There was no one more thing at this conference. At the beginning, the Vision Pro that everyone has been thinking about was mentioned, but there was only one sentence, telling everyone not to rush. Apart from that, there were not many things in the entire conference, only two products - watches and mobile phones.

First of all, let’s talk about Apple Watch. Two models were released this time, namely Apple Watch Series 9 and Apple Watch Ultra 2.

There are three major updates for Series 9.

One of the highlights is the chip. The Series 9 is equipped with a brand new dual-core S9 SiP chip, which is the biggest update this time. In terms of performance, the S9 SiP CPU has 5.6 billion transistors, 60% more than the previous generation. The GPU speed is increased by 30%.

▲ The picture comes from Apple's official website

Secondly, Series 9 is also equipped with a second-generation ultra-wideband (UWB) chip, which can achieve precise positioning.

The last and most important feature is Double Tap. Based on the two chips, Series 9 has updated a gesture control function. When the user wears the watch, he only needs to touch the thumb and index finger twice to answer/hang up the phone, turn off the alarm, control the smart stack, etc., solving the problem of inconvenient operation of the watch with one hand.

▲ The picture comes from Apple's official website

Based on the Series 9, the Ultra 2 has a larger and brighter display, with an all-day retina display with a peak brightness of 3000 nits, while the Series 9 has only 2000 nits. In addition, based on the larger dial of the Ultra 2, Apple has launched an exclusive dial - Modular Ultra, which can use the outermost extension of the dial to display some information in real time.

On the whole, the width of the product is the difference between a medium cup and a large cup, and the core thing that is reflected is Cook's precise knife skills.

The next mobile phone to appear is the iPhone 15.

As everyone predicted before the launch, there is no revolutionary breakthrough. Of course, if the removal of the physical volume button on the Pro version, which is Apple's iconic setting, is counted, then it is still a big breakthrough.

Back to the point, there are four major changes in the iPhone 15, namely the 3nm A17 Pro bionic chip, the upgraded camera system, and the type-c interface and smart island for the entire series. But the first two points are actually the most important, and these were basically announced before the launch conference.

▲ The picture comes from Apple's official website

Let’s talk about chips first.

The A17 Pro Bionic chip is the industry's first 3nm mobile phone chip manufactured by TSMC. It contains 19 billion transistors, a 6-core CPU, and a 6-core GPU. The CPU performance is increased by 10%, and the GPU peak performance is increased by 20%, almost reaching the level of some PCs.

It is obviously a waste of resources to use a powerful chip only for watching TikTok, so Apple found an outlet for its powerful performance - games.

At this conference, Apple also demonstrated the use scenarios of many games such as Honor of Kings, Genshin Impact, and Honkai Impact 3. So much so that some netizens said that they did not expect that the phone turned out to be a game console in the end.

But one thing to note is that the basic iPhone 15 still uses the previous generation A16 chip, and only the Pro version and above will be equipped with the powerful 3nm A17 Pro. Here we have to sigh again at Cook's knife skills.

The second is the camera system.

The iPhone 15 is said to be equipped with the most powerful camera system in history, "just like carrying seven professional lenses with you."

The iPhone 15 uses a new 48-megapixel camera with a 2x telephoto function and a 12-megapixel ultra-wide angle. On this basis, the Pro version has a 3x or 5x telephoto lens and a 25% larger sensor. The ultra-wide angle supports macro, and the overall shooting can be achieved in seven focal lengths: macro, 13, 24, 28, 35, 48, and 120mm.

It is worth mentioning that the Pro series also supports spatial video shooting, which can be used with Vision Pro for viewing. But would you spend more than 23,000 yuan for this function? This is actually a question.

▲ The picture comes from Apple's official website

From chips to photography, Apple has used powerful technology to cram a GPU and a SLR into its mobile phone. It feels a bit like "the power of a big brick flying" and lacks the skill and art of "using a little force to achieve a great result".

Apart from that, the iPhone 15 only updates some small details.

For example, the entire series is equipped with Smart Island and integrates more practical scenarios. The entire series is equipped with a type-c interface. In the future, all Apple devices can be charged with one charging head. However, these are problems that Apple has been criticized countless times and are not worthy of praise.

In addition, like the satellite call function generally available on domestic mobile phones, the iPhone 15 also has satellite information communication capabilities, but it is currently unable to make calls like Huawei, and can only send messages or ask for help through map software. Its advantage is that it can be used in more countries and regions, and the satellite service is free for a two-year trial on the iPhone 15.

Finally, the colors are the focus of Apple's press conference. Apple also emphasized the process used to make these colors. However, some sharp-eyed netizens noticed that these are the colors of Chinese men's and women's underwear.

▲ Image source: Screenshot from Weibo user

In fact, I don’t know when it started, but “inventing color” at mobile phone launches has become a very important innovation, and even the most important highlight. When this happens to Apple, it may indeed mean that the development of mobile phones has come to an end.

Apple seems to have run out of ideas.

2. Apple, is no longer useful?

Apparently, the newly released iPhone 15 is not that satisfying.

At least the group of people who decide to change their phones after Apple's press conference every year no longer regard the latest iPhone as their only option.

As an Internet practitioner, Luo Xing's goal for changing his phone this year was to buy the iPhone 13 pro max after hesitating between the "Far Ahead" and iPhone 14 pro.

"It is obviously the most cost-effective to buy an iPhone 13 pro max at this time." Luo Xing has his own calculation logic: "The appearance of Apple phones has not changed much since the iPhone 11, but Apple's performance has been continuously improved during this period. For example, the iPhone 12 Pro has 5G, and the 13Pro uses a 120Hz adaptive refresh rate and a 5nm A15 bionic chip, which has a longer battery life, etc."

But since the 13 Pro, the hardware upgrades of Apple phones have been very limited. The difference between the 14 Pro and the previous generation is mainly the 4nm A16 chip, Smart Island, and a more powerful camera. The biggest change from the 14 Pro to the 15 Pro is the A17 Pro bionic chip and more powerful camera capabilities.

But the ordinary iPhone 15 still uses the A16 Bionic chip, and the 3nm A17 Pro can only be used by the 15 Pro.

"I use my phone for Douyin, WeChat, and IQIYI, and occasionally play Honor of Kings and Genshin Impact. The 5nm chip is more than enough, and most of the performance is excessive. Luo Xing said: "In addition to the chip, from 13Pro to 14Pro, although the battery life has increased, it has not solved the fundamental problem, and Lingdong Island is not compatible with the entire system."

"Either it's unnecessary, or the upgraded features are not worth the extra thousands of yuan. On the contrary, buying the 13pro max at this time is the most cost-effective choice."

This is also confirmed by the decision of more Apple users around us to change their phones. After randomly interviewing 6 Apple users around us, we found that only two decided to buy iPhone 15, and one of them is currently using iPhone 11 (there is an urgent need to change the phone).

Obviously, there are fewer and fewer new features worth paying for in new phones. Mobile phone hardware has reached a clear ceiling in development. Coupled with the oversupply of performance, more users have changed their phones from once a year to two or even three years. This has also put tremendous pressure on Apple's sales.

This can be seen from Apple's financial report.

In early August, Apple released its third-quarter financial report for fiscal year 2023 (second quarter report for 2023). Data showed that Apple's third-quarter revenue was $81.797 billion, less than the $82.959 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year, and also a significant decline from the $94.836 billion in the previous fiscal quarter. This is the third consecutive quarter that Apple's revenue has declined.

The main reason for the decline in revenue was the decline in revenue from hardware products, especially the impact of the decline in iPhone revenue.

In the third quarter of 2023, Apple's product revenue was $60.584 billion, less than the $63.355 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year. iPhone revenue in the third quarter was $39.669 billion, a decrease of nearly $1 billion from $40.665 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year, and significantly lower than the $51.334 billion in the previous fiscal quarter.

▲ Data from Apple’s financial report

Of course, the decline in Apple’s mobile phone revenue is also related to the downturn in the global mobile phone market.

According to the latest data from Counterpoint Research, in the second quarter of 2023, global smartphone sales fell 8% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month, and fell year-on-year for eight consecutive quarters. According to IDC data, in the second quarter of 2023, China's smartphone market shipments were about 65.7 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. In the first half of the year, shipments were about 130 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%.

But Cook himself is well aware that it is difficult for Apple to find more growth in China. He mentioned in Apple's third-quarter earnings conference call that the sales growth of iPhone in China was achieved through replacement and upgrade activities.

Now that Apple's products have no incentive for users to change their phones, sales will naturally be under more pressure. Of course, in addition to this, Apple's greater challenges may also come from the return of its old rival Huawei.

Since Huawei was sanctioned in 2019, its market share in smartphones has dropped from 42% (including Honor) at its peak to around 7% in 2022, and has been classified as other categories. During the period when Huawei retreated, the biggest beneficiary of the mobile phone market was actually Apple, and the high-end market was almost monopolized by Apple.

Now that Huawei has returned, it is bound to take away part of the high-end market that originally belonged to Apple. This can be seen from the market feedback after Huawei Mate 60 Pro was put on sale.

Currently, Huawei's official website is still out of stock, and offline flagship stores still have long queues. On the evening of September 12, before the Apple conference began, Securities Daily quoted people close to Huawei as saying that due to the performance of the Mate 60 series of mobile phones exceeding expectations, Huawei has increased its shipment target for the series by 20% in the second half of the year, and Huawei's new phone shipments for the whole year will be at least 40 million units.

In other words, at a time when the mobile phone market is already facing sluggish growth, Huawei's return will make things even worse for Apple.

3. Can you still trust Apple?

In fact, as mentioned in the introduction, in addition to Huawei, Apple also faces many challenges, and these challenges come more from Apple itself.

For example, on the eve of the launch, a piece of news about Apple's fake 5G signal went viral on the Internet. Of course, the authenticity of this matter remains to be determined, but from this point of view, Apple does not seem to be that far ahead.

After all, the assertion that the growth of the mobile phone market has peaked is not new. So people have been thinking about what the next generation of devices might be since a long time ago. Now, with the development of technology, we may have some directions, but Apple has not met people's expectations in these directions.

For example, generative AI may bring a new round of intelligent changes to mobile terminals, and Apple also agrees with this trend.

In China, Huawei has combined the large model with the terminal and applied it to the Mate 60 series that has been released; Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun also mentioned in his annual speech that the large model will be installed in the mobile phone and demonstrated the newly upgraded Xiao Ai.

Cook mentioned in an earnings call in August: "For many years, we have been researching various AI technologies, including generative AI. Obviously, we are investing a lot of money, which is reflected in R&D spending." Apple's R&D expenditure in fiscal 2023 was US$22.6 billion, about US$3.12 billion higher than the same period last year, mainly due to the work on generative AI.

However, at this Apple conference, the only relevant demonstrations were the unrelated machine learning algorithms for call noise reduction and camera alignment. Apparently, Apple is lagging behind in generative AI.

US investment bank Needham also expressed this concern in a report released on August 7. They believe that Apple is currently the company with the largest market value in the world, but the development trend of artificial intelligence may eventually subvert this ranking, which may cause Apple to be surpassed by the three technology giants Microsoft, Google and Amazon.

In addition to the intelligent upgrades of mobile phones, Apple is also exploring who will be the next super smart terminal.

Smart cars are full of possibilities and imagination. Apple launched a car-making project called "Titan" in 2014, but so far, no further disclosure has been made to the public about the project. In contrast, Tesla, also an American company, has already released the new generation Model 3.

In China, Huawei has just released the Q-E7 and announced that it will open advanced driver assistance capabilities nationwide this year. Similarly, Xiaomi has been in trial production for a month, and mass production and delivery are just around the corner.

In addition to cars, what else could the next generation of terminals be? Wearable devices such as AR/VR/MR are another option.

In June, Apple released its MR product Vision Pro at WWDC, which was delayed for two years.

▲ The picture comes from Apple's official website

From the product point of view, Vision Pro is indeed technologically advanced, but not by a huge margin. At the same time, Apple has only released this product, and the real mass production will have to wait until next spring. Even its high price of $3,499 is obviously still far from being a popular product that everyone can buy.

In this context, the cumulative shipments of Meta's Quest series in the first quarter of this year have reached 20 million units. Domestic Pico sales will also exceed 700,000 units in 2022. In addition, after Rokid adopted a split design, the monocular SLAM vision solution has reduced the weight of the glasses to an extreme of 76g. In the latest press conference, the next-generation spatial computer was also launched, landing for productivity. Whether it is the product itself or the shipment volume, the industry has not left Apple much time.

In fact, we always have very high expectations and inexplicable trust in Apple. We think it can change the automotive industry, bring hope of breakthrough to VR/AR, and continue the glory of the mobile phone market.

This expectation and trust comes from the fact that Apple is the company with the highest market value and the most profitability in the world. It has sufficient funds and resources to attract the best talents in the world. At the same time, it itself has a very strong innovative gene, and the glory of the Jobs era continues.

All of this means that even when it doesn't come up with any commendable products, we still believe it can.

But so far, Apple's performance has been increasingly disappointing.

Perhaps, the times require a new king.

This article was originally published by @自四限 on Operation Party. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

The title image is from Unsplash, based on the CC0 protocol.