40 predictions to help you see long videos in 2024

In the past year, the emergence of a number of dramas such as "Kuangbi" and "Fanghua" has allowed long videos to penetrate the circle again and create a national topic. Will it continue in 2024? What different changes will occur in the industry? We have given 40 predictions and still expect long videos to maintain their performance.

After nearly two years of the "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" trend, long video companies are returning to their core business with greater focus - how to provide good content and service subscription members.

As the overall external environment is unlikely to fully recover overnight, trying to find incremental growth and working hard to serve existing stocks will still be the general trend of the entire Internet industry. Under this trend, long videos will obviously further adhere to the strategy implemented last year and continue to evolve.

The positive signal is that today's long video users have clearly formed a dependence on consumption paths, and at the same time they also give sufficient positive feedback to good content in the first place. The emergence of a number of dramas such as "Crazy", "The Long Season" and "Flower" also proves that even at a time when short video platforms dominate social public opinion topics, long videos still have the ability to create national topics and are able to penetrate circles.

This still reflects the unique value of long videos, especially in this era of blindly pursuing speed, there are finally content platforms that can take their time and produce fine results.

Looking ahead to 2024, we have also made some potential predictions. We can still look forward to what new changes the industry can bring and what new value it can create in the coming year. In the long run, we can still remain optimistic.

Part 1 Commercialization: The era of deepening stock cultivation has arrived

01

A new round of price adjustments for long videos is about to begin. After the number of members on long video platforms has entered the stock market, the core membership subscription income can only be achieved through effective membership payments. Price adjustments will become an unavoidable topic. This year's price adjustments may occur as usual before and after the launch of major platform dramas such as "Joy of Life 2" and "Fox Spirit Matchmaker".

02

If there is no public price adjustment, price adjustments can still be achieved by tightening the discounts for various joint memberships, reducing participation in various shopping festivals, or increasing the threshold for participation. For example, iQiyi’s 2023 Double Eleven membership card purchase discount is not a direct reduction, but a Pinduoduo-style approach, where you can share and invite friends to participate to get more discounts.

iQIYI Double 11 Event

03

Member services will continue to increase.

After more than half a year of practice last year, it is obvious that there will be more subscription membership activities or related value-added activities this year. After all, platforms have begun to realize that tapping the value of existing members cannot be achieved through simple price adjustments. Further enhancing the emotional connection between members and the platform cannot rely solely on content. More diversified membership services also require continuous innovation.

OpenDay, which Tencent Video started operating in May 2023, will continue to be branded and customized, as can be seen from the collaboration with "Fanhua" at the beginning of this year, and more commercial customers will also cooperate with member customized activities to achieve emotional resonance.

On this basis, the "Golden Mango Fan Festival" can choose to return , the "Starlight Market" (OpenDay year-end version) can be continuously upgraded, and the iQiyi World Conference can also consider presenting a special "Fan Conference" format. Youku can also work with TVB to expand the stickiness of VIP members of Hong Kong drama fans through award ceremonies, visits to Hong Kong, and the formulation of check-in routes.

04

The types and circles of membership services will be further subdivided.

From Mango membership cards to music variety show cards, bestie cards, or the "Flowers and Youth Limited Card" for a single head project, and even a lifetime Mango variety show card drawn at the New Year's Eve concert, the design of circle membership rights based on user emotions and interests will be popularized, and Tencent Video's offline OpenDay activities will also be more themed and crowd-oriented.

Tencent Video OpenDay

05

iQiyi, Youku, Tencent Video and Mango TV will continue to crack down on member account sharing, but at the same time, forms such as "family membership" will be developed.

06

SVIP membership benefits will be expanded to increase the ARPU value of a single member. For example, Youku's SVIP has tried to allow SVIP to watch one more episode than VIP in key dramas such as "Dragon Boy" and "Love Forever", and Tencent Video also stated in the "Pray for Today" drama calendar that SVIP will unlock the feature film 6 hours in advance on the member renewal day, and iQiyi's Platinum and Star Diamond members have made significant changes in their membership points to make it easier to redeem mall gifts and preview coupons. SVIP, Platinum, and Star Diamond, which are higher-level than VIP, need to offer more direct benefits besides "you can also watch the big screen" to increase the attractiveness of VIP membership upgrades, thereby increasing the ARPU value of a single member, not just price adjustments.

Image source: Internet

07

The closing preview ceremonies will be more frequent. In addition to the main feature of member points redemption, more added value is needed . Otherwise, once this model becomes the norm in the industry, but more added value is not given in terms of content or services, it is likely to usher in a backlash from public opinion like the "advanced preview". The setting of cloud private screenings and flower viewing gift packages that appeared in "Flowers" may open up the imagination space for member cloud private screenings.

08

Mango TV will accelerate its sprint to the 100 million-level membership club. Starting from 2023, Mango TV's drama performance has finally made a breakthrough. Coupled with the occupation of the variety show market and the frequent discounts and promotions of Mango TV membership cards in various cycles at this stage, there is no doubt that the number of members will increase. From the perspective of the list of upcoming dramas, more popular dramas have been launched and filmed one after another, and further breakthroughs in its membership will also be reflected in the next two years.

09

Youku, iQiyi, Tencent Video and Mango TV will expand the benefits of IP derivatives, but the direction will be shifted to the linkage of daily consumer goods , catering to the theme of rational consumption and rigid demand in the current consumer market. Whether it is the IP derivatives of iQiyi's "Lotus Tower" that have achieved 25 million, or the GMV of the Nanbowan brand series behind Mango TV's "Detective Academy" reaching 200 million, it proves that the growth space potential of IP consumption is still there, and Xiaomang will also use its IP advantages to impact the "Super Live Room" in 2024. The commercialization of the platform must think about how to make the IP consumption behind small and medium-sized content form a drip irrigation effect, and more top hit dramas in 2024 will also intend to take the path of replicating "Lotus Tower".

Image source: Weibo

10

The online advertising business will roll towards the commercialization of TV series. When "TV series title sponsorship" becomes the standardized output of the platform's top TV series in 2023, its frequency of appearance will be higher and there will be more ways to play. More commercial customization around TV series will be written in the future. At the same time, more online and offline scene linkages and derivative variety shows of TV series will also form a combined marketing plan packaged in front of advertisers.

11

Going overseas is a long and arduous task, but it has to be done. There may be a breakthrough in 2024. Although the overseas journey of several long videos is not smooth, streaming media is destined to be a business model that needs to do global business. After shrinking original Korean dramas, iQiyi began to focus more on local content in Southeast Asia and original Chinese dramas. Following the trial of Youku's international version of "Asia Super Star Group", the highlight of going overseas in 2024 will naturally be WeTv's "CHUANG AISA Creation Camp 2024".

Part.2 Good content: You need to find the audience accurately, and pay attention to both "artistic quality" and "commercial quality"

Episodes

12

Theatricalization and high-quality production will continue to evolve. From iQiyi's Misty, Lianlian, and Xiaodou Theaters, to Tencent Video's X Theater and Bench and Firefly Units, plus Youku's ongoing operations of Pet, Suspense, and Hong Kong Theaters, as well as Mango TV's Monsoon Theater, theatricalization and unitized broadcast content will only increase in number, become more and more niche and segmented, and content for fans of different drama types will show explosive growth. Mass content for all ages and all circles will become a scarce product, and will also be a touchstone for the platform's comprehensive production capabilities.

13

In terms of popular themes, the main axis in 2024 will be male-oriented dramas PK period dramas . One, represented by "Joy of Life 2", "The Night Patrol of Dafeng" and "A Mortal's Journey to Immortality", pursues the diversified expression of genre dramas and breaks the circle again; the other, represented by "Coming from South to North", "Going North" and "People in the Alley", once again moves towards the imagination of dramas for all ages.

14

After boasting about the movie feeling, what should the series boast about next? "Fang Hua" uses the halo of a truly top film director to protect itself, which opens up an idea. Platform series can try to expand categories in depth and cooperate with film directors with mature personal image styles, high personal expression and artistic impulse, such as Lou Ye and Jia Zhangke, or upgrade the "movie feeling" again. More importantly, high-quality series still need to urgently find their own texture adjectives, so that high quality does not need to rely on other things.

15

Series with less than 10 episodes will pursue more artistic expression, so the one-time broadcast strategy will be tested for this type of content.

16

Each platform will have stronger output for type brands to occupy the user's mind . For example, Youku is constantly exporting the fairy-tale drama brand, and has successfully experimented with the two independent labels of comic-adapted drama and new Hong Kong drama. Tencent Video has also seized the "pioneering" effect of science fiction drama. The competition for comedy types will also deepen in 2024, and the brand wave can focus on the "literary drama" triggered by the "prose adaptation drama" "My Altay" and the "classic literature adaptation drama" "Happy".

17

IP thinking will once again dominate the development of dramas . Whether it is establishing a cosmic view, forming seasonal dramas, or being developed in multiple forms such as long, medium and short, film and animation, it will be of concern to the creation of various types of dramas. In 2023, "Fearless Season 1" was not broadcast yet, but the second season started shooting. In 2024, more dramas on the long video list will be directly prefixed with "Season 1", and the official arrival of "Celebrating Yu Nian 2" will demonstrate the true combat effectiveness of the master of IP thinking in online content.

18

The commercial significance of the series will be placed in the same position as the series' reputation , and there is no need to blindly advocate "word of mouth is king" for long videos. Good content has become the life and death line of long videos. After completing the benchmark setting, more attention will be paid to the commercial vision of the series. Keywords such as series marketing, series-driven cultural tourism, and series after-sales will become more important dimensions for each platform to assess top dramas in 2024.

19

The time has finally come for the film version of the TV series, or the concept of the theater version. The success of the movie version of Twinkle Twinkle Star in attracting the post-00s generation also showed the market that the post-00s generation, who grew up with the development of long videos, have more sentimental effects on long video content. Long videos need to explore new ideas and extend the vitality of IP by adapting TV series into big movies. Movies like "The Storm", "The Long Season" and "Flower" are likely to be implemented, and iQiyi Pictures and Alibaba Pictures, which are deep-linked long video movie experts, should also shift their attention from focusing on Hong Kong films and big directors to the development of IP value created by long videos.

Variety Show

20

Variety shows will continue to be the choice of Youku, iQiyi and Tencent Video as they shrink their lineups . Variety shows of the Nth generation will continue to be popular, and the requirements for artistic integrity, ROI, format and value-added will be more stringent for innovative variety shows. Whether a variety show can be developed and produced will depend entirely on the favor of advertisers. In addition to title sponsorship, the amount of sponsorship for other identities will be reduced, and the frequency of single-episode variety show placement will increase. More health care product and pharmaceutical companies will try to sponsor variety shows.

twenty one

The number of variety shows may increase to further meet the needs of sponsors. The 2023 semi-annual "Let's Farm" and the 20-episode "The Best Student in Housework" are examples.

twenty two

The platforms will further consolidate their own variety show brands , such as music variety shows, mystery variety shows, and friend variety shows on Mango TV, and love variety shows and career variety shows on Tencent Video. In 2024, they may compete in comedy, cute baby, and overseas travel categories. Variety shows that serve the drama series will continue to be tried, but they should not be developed blindly . They need to form commercial services with the drama series. The real explosion of drama-derived variety shows will have to wait for the continuous output of the main creative groups of the top variety shows or seasonal dramas before they can form a real effect.

twenty three

The membership product attributes of variety shows will be further enhanced. Whether it is the direct customization of mid-level variety shows or the after-sales derivative content of top variety shows, for single-film payment or preview ceremonies for variety shows, in addition to the advance concert of "The Great Detective", the joint version of "Escape the Room", and the live finale of "Signal of Heart", more variety shows need to enter the market to test the possibility of variety show toC.

twenty four

Variety shows need to be used to cultivate the platform's own "amateur" group , form an art group, and become a fixed content of member variety shows, feed back to other business lines, and become the "cost reduction" of the platform's future production of variety show content. Mango TV's content creation for Yuanren finally formed a stable fan circle effect in 2023, and it has been on Weibo hot searches many times. Head projects such as "All Accelerate 2024" directly allowed Yuanren to PK0713. Similarly, the popularity of fans has only increased, and the two major teams of Yuanren and 0713 have jointly supported a lot of GMV of Xiaomang e-commerce, and the evening party such as the Xiaomang New Year Etiquette Festival that just ended was also jointly supported by these two groups; in addition, iQiyi's output of "Ten Hardworking Days" also provided soil for iQiyi to give birth to another "Hello, Farming Boy".

25

Variety show promotion may be waiting for the next "Xiaohongshu hit variety show". After "Dad is in Charge 2" created the top streamer Mario, "Let's Farm" has a combination of long and short content, and Douyin revitalized "Offer 5", Douyin's support for long video variety shows cannot be ignored. At the same time, "Flowers and Youth 5" has also become a hot variety show on Xiaohongshu. So, whether a description similar to "Xiaohongshu hit variety show" can be born in 2024 to open up more circles for variety shows is worth looking forward to.

other

26

Online literature IP will still occupy the core of long video development, but the top online literature content is facing the exhaustion of development, and online literature platforms need to learn how to create the next top with long videos. After the top online literature adaptations such as "Joy of Life 2", "Dafeng Night Watchmen" and "Mortal's Journey to Immortality" were launched in 2024, there will be no more phenomenal online literature to drive the IPization of long videos. The watershed of the cooperation between online literature platforms and long videos may appear in 2024.

27

Anime has entered the era of annual series, and the industry is in urgent need of new hits, and Chinese martial arts is one direction. The problems faced by domestic animation today are inseparable from the fact that almost all of them are adapted from online novels, especially annual series such as "Douluo Dalu" and "Battle Through the Heavens". Where to find new IPs? The lack of originality is always a difficult problem to solve.

In fact, the appearance of the new work "Dart Man" has attracted the attention of animation fans in Japan, and the "Wu Liuqi" series has been popular on Netflix for a long time. It can be seen that the Chinese-style martial arts theme has vitality, and it is not just that Chinese comics have made the fantasy legend type the mainstream theme. Some 3D styles are like a re-skinned work. In addition, perhaps the popularization of AIGC creation tools will bring a new trend to domestic animation, but for now, Chinese animation is still struggling to move forward.

28

Children's content will become the next track for long videos to compete for . While incubating IP, we must consider industrial expansion. Whether it is Mango TV's acquisition of the Golden Eagle Cartoon, the continued operation of iQiyi's Aibab Park, or Youku Kids' "Tina Tony" series achieving diversified IP cooperation, they all prove that there are more possibilities for children's content. After all, once a child is attracted to an animation, then at least two or three years of membership subscription period will be locked in, not to mention the immeasurable IP derivative chain behind it.

29

Documentary and humanistic content will gradually become individual platform labels, and Tencent Video and Youku will guard these two types.

30

The Olympics is another opportunity for Migu Video to attract attention, but Youku, iQiyi, Tencent Video and Mango TV can use this opportunity to think about the layout of sports documentaries. If they can work with the Sports Bureau to develop a growth documentary about popular Olympic figures, it will be better than not having the live broadcast rights but having to use it in various variety shows.

Migu Video Live Broadcast of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics

31

The revenue sharing content continues to roll up sweet pet dramas and genre web dramas, while the revenue sharing ceiling of short dramas may be raised. Faced with the explosive popularity of the short drama track, mini-program short dramas have given a bright prospect of recharge turnover exceeding 100 million yuan, and some long video players who joined the battle early, the revenue sharing income of the "short drama giant" "Provoke" in 2023 reached 20 million. Although it is difficult for mini-program short dramas to become rich overnight, when short dramas are all rolling towards high-quality, even if how to create within a standardized framework is what long videos are good at, it also needs a higher temptation to attract film producers to fight in this field.

32

After completing the secondary creation marriage with iQiyi and Tencent Video, Douyin may open up the overall long-short synergy in 2024. After Mango TV and Douyin jointly launched the "Quality Short Drama Support Plan", Mango Copyright will undoubtedly play a role in the development of Douyin's secondary creation. After "News Queen" set off a peak in the popularity of short video topics, Youku's embrace of short videos will not be far away.

33

The cooperation between film and television companies and long videos has entered a period of "small profits", and they will no longer be content to be single workers. For example, Miwei, which has served iQiyi's variety shows for a long time, finally put its comedy IP on Tencent Video after surviving the cold wave. In the past two or three years, everyone has worked together to overcome the crisis. Now that the industry has warmed up overall, making preparations will become more and more the norm for film and television companies.

Part.3 Technology layout: more achievements need to be seen

34

The large-screen experience needs to win people's hearts through simplicity. For long videos, the large-screen experience is a battleground, but since they do not have the hardware, it is actually difficult for each company to master the experience. Continuing to launch their own TV boxes may be a solution, but the core is to be able to cooperate more deeply with TV manufacturers to fundamentally create a simpler and more direct large-screen viewing experience. After all, if the audience has lost the desire to turn on the TV, what's the point of talking about technical upgrades such as 4K and Dolby sound effects?

35

Long video platforms still need to fight against piracy to the end, and more rigorous technical means may emerge. When the growth rate reaches its peak, long video platforms still need to use more rigorous technical means to avoid the emergence of pirated resources, especially the popular online disk resources - this also requires long video platforms to work closely with related platforms. After all, many well-known online disk production companies are also major shareholders or holders of long video platforms.

36

Virtual production technology continues to improve, and how to reduce costs has become the core of popularization. For today's virtual production, the biggest problem is that the initial investment cost is too high. The platform needs to have continuous works using the corresponding technology to truly achieve the goal of reducing costs. Therefore, the simple use and construction of virtual production should not be a publicity gimmick or purpose, but a technical means to shoot better works and effectively reduce costs . Only in this way can virtual production truly become a part of domestic film and television shooting in the long run.

37

It’s time to bring out the results of AIGC research and development. It’s time for the first AIGC work in long video. If we count from the emergence of ChatGPT, it’s been almost a year since long video was called AIGC, so shouldn’t we also show some results this year? iQiyi has said that it has been used in search and overseas subtitle translation, but these are actually just functions. The most intuitive thing for the outside world and the audience is the content. Will there be scripts created with the assistance of AIGC that will eventually be made into TV series, or animation works created with the participation of AIGC? This year has just begun, and there is still a lot of time left for each platform.

The animation "Dog and Boy" produced with the participation of AI

38

Interactive content may still have room for improvement. The sales of the audio-visual interactive game "It's Over! I'm Surrounded by Beautiful Women!" reached tens of millions. Although this type of work is speculative in avoiding risks by playing games and skirting the rules of Steam, it must be said that it has indeed understood the psychology of some consumer groups and realized its concept from the perspective of interactivity. Long video platforms have been researching interactive video content for many years, but they are still stuck on some very basic concepts. Perhaps they should change their thinking and think about the problem. Aren't people doing love variety shows? It shouldn't be that difficult to make love variety shows interactive.

39

In the electric era, long videos continue to move towards in-car audio and video resources. There are already so many screens on electric vehicles that there is almost one per person . In the stage where in-car entertainment has obviously quickly transitioned from simple music to video, for long videos, what potential for innovation or commercialization of in-car audio and video is still worth exploring. Whether it can become the exclusive of some popular models or develop corresponding adaptation functions also tests the public relations and technical capabilities of long videos.

40

Apple VR is coming. Are iQiyi, Youku, Tencent Video and Mango TV ready for content adaptation? Apple Vision Pro will be officially launched in the US market next month. Based on the experience of the first generation of iPhone, it may take a year for it to enter the domestic market. At present, its main function, in addition to productivity, is actually watching content. If there is half a year to a year of preparation time, domestic long video platforms should obviously reserve corresponding content for it in advance. After all, if Apple Vision Pro really becomes a cross-era spatial computing device like the iPhone, as a content provider, whoever can first let users perceive the scarcity of its content will inevitably take the lead.

Conclusion

The core purpose of the development of long videos in 2024 is still inseparable from "profitability" and "scale", which also allows every player to enter the new year's position battle with a cautious and optimistic attitude.

In the past, we have mentioned "good content" countless times, because after long videos have gone through the wild period, they need a set of benchmarks for the industry value measurement system. Now, when the "good content" benchmark has been established, for the future, we need to clarify which "good businesses" following "good content" are worth developing and have potential.

Therefore, starting from 2024, let’s realize those visions about long videos more vigorously!

Author: Great Entertainer, Lu Ke

Source: Yiyuguancha (ID: yiyuguancha), the telescope and sonar of the pan-entertainment industry.