DeepSeek's analysis of the top ten e-commerce trends in 2025

"DeepSeek has insights into e-commerce trends and leads the direction of industry change." As the e-commerce industry is developing rapidly, what kind of changes will the e-commerce landscape present in 2025? How should major e-commerce platforms and merchants respond to new trends and challenges? What key role does AI technology play in this?

During the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic AI model "No. 1 Baturu" DeepSeek continued to dominate the screen.

Many netizens lamented that DeepSeek understands human language better and is better at thinking. Not only is it "quick-witted", it is also good at "personalized performance" and can "consider all aspects" for you. Netizens call it an "all-round AI assistant."

At the same time, multiple platforms such as Huawei Cloud and Tencent Cloud have announced the launch of the DeepSeek large model. Overseas, Amazon, Microsoft, NVIDIA, etc. have also announced the access to the DeepSeek model.

This trend of DeepSeek becoming popular has increased the popularity of large models among the general public. When it comes to the e-commerce industry, what opinions and references can DeepSeek provide?

1. Refunds are the only thing that won’t disappear. Merchants can use AI to break through.

In 2024, major e-commerce platforms will gradually begin to re-examine how to balance the interests of merchants and consumers. Will the refund-only policy of e-commerce platforms be completely cancelled in 2025? What is the possibility of cancellation? What impact will it have on merchants?

DeepSeek believes that the “refund only” policy of e-commerce platforms will not be completely cancelled in 2025, but will enter a stage of refined governance.

First, from the perspective of the probability of policy adjustment, the probability of complete cancellation is less than 10%. This is because a survey of consumers on the leading platforms showed that 63% of users considered refunds as the core shopping decision factor. Next, the probability of dynamic grading implementation is 90%. The platform can make adjustments based on credit grading, category differences, and amount thresholds.

Platform differentiation strategy recommendations:

Pinduoduo: Retain but shrink (scope of application -30%) AI pre-quality inspection (image recognition accuracy 90%) needs to be connected to the quality control system (cost +50,000/year).

Douyin: Upgraded to “Lightning Refund” blockchain evidence storage (speeding up dispute resolution by 60%) and compulsory performance insurance (premium rate 0.8%-1.2%).

JD.com: Superimposing reverse logistics intelligent route planning (reducing return costs by 25%) requires the use of Jingcang services (penetration rate will reach 75%).

Taobao: Merged into the “Worry-Free Shopping” system to model user behavior (85% recognition rate of malicious refunds) and participate in merchant rating (affecting traffic distribution by ±20%).

After analyzing the differences in platform strategies, DeepSeek quantitatively evaluated the impact on merchants:

- Changes in cost structure: After-sales costs for high-quality merchants have decreased, and the reshuffle of long-tail merchants has accelerated.

-Operation model iteration: Investment in intelligent customer service has increased dramatically. By 2025, the penetration rate of AI customer service among merchants needs to reach 70% (currently 45%). Supply chain transformation needs, and the proportion of pre-sales needs to be increased to 40% to hedge against refund risks.

-Reshaping of the competition landscape: Merchants with strong service capabilities are more attractive to consumers, and the conversion rate of merchants offering quick refunds is 25% higher than the industry average; category concentration is increasing, and the market share of the TOP10 brands in the home appliance 3C category will exceed 65%.

DeepSeek recommends that small and medium-sized businesses invest 20% of their after-sales budget in AI quality inspection equipment, and at the same time increase the customization ratio to more than 35% through the C2M model, thereby fundamentally reducing the return rate.

The essence of the platform policy adjustment is to reconstruct the trust cost through technical means. By 2025, a positive cycle of "high-quality merchants obtain policy dividends-consumer experience upgrades-platform ecology optimization" will be formed, and ultimately the GMV loss rate will be compressed to a healthy business model within 1.5%.

2. Alibaba’s new retail strategy “broke the bankrupt” and accelerated its shift to “asset-light”

DeepSeek believes that Alibaba's new retail strategy does face challenges at this stage, but its future direction needs to be comprehensively analyzed in combination with industry trends and corporate strategic adjustments:

First, the new retail business faces real difficulties: the heavy asset model of businesses such as Intime Department Store and Gao Xin Retail is under pressure; although Hema has already made a profit, its listing has been repeatedly postponed due to problems such as high costs of forward warehouses and cold chain transportation; the digital transformation of Intime Department Store has not been as effective as expected; Taocaicai is facing squeeze from Meituan Youxuan/Duoduo Maicai, and its losses in Q4 2023 expanded by 27% year-on-year.

Based on the above situation, Alibaba's strategic adjustment path is to enhance the output of light asset capabilities. The commercialization of Alibaba Cloud Retail Solutions has accelerated, confirming the demand of brands for digital tools; 1688 has transformed into an industrial belt service provider, connecting more than 1,000 industrial belts through cross-border dedicated channels, and the B2B transaction volume will exceed 800 billion yuan in 2023. Focusing on core advantage areas, Cainiao Network's spin-off and listing are advancing, and C2M platforms such as Xianyu/1688 are rising.

Secondly, DeepSeek believes that there will be structural opportunities in the industry, namely differentiated competition in instant retail and cross-border e-commerce:

– Tmall Supermarket’s 1-hour delivery service is connected to offline supermarkets in 600 cities, adopts a 20% commission sharing model (lower than JD.com’s 25%), and empowers customers through LBS traffic rather than building their own warehouses.

– By leveraging the Alipay ecosystem, Ele.me will increase the proportion of non-catering categories to 38% in 2023, and the commission rate for high-frequency categories such as medicines and flowers can reach 15%.

– AliExpress Choice Channel shortens cross-border delivery time to 3 days through its local warehouse network in Spain and France. In 2023, the GMV of overseas warehouses will increase by 210% year-on-year, and the proportion of overseas warehouses with a light asset model will account for 70%.

DeepSeek believes that Alibaba’s key indicators for the next three years will be:

– If Hema can reduce the proportion of directly-operated stores to below 50% through the franchise model, it is expected to achieve positive operating cash flow

– If the repurchase rate of members of Intime Department Store increases to 65% (currently 52%), the high-end retail digital model can be verified

– Taocaicai’s fresh produce loss rate needs to drop below 10% (currently 13.5%) to support the regional profit model

In short, Alibaba will not completely abandon new retail, but will turn to the asset-light path of "digital infrastructure + ecological empowerment", with physical layout serving more as data touchpoints rather than revenue sources. This adjustment is in line with the law of decreasing marginal costs of Internet platforms and also fits the current capital market's preference for certainty.

3. Industrial belts accelerate internal expansion, and high-end manufacturing accelerates

DeepSeek believes that regarding the development trends and upgrading paths of Chinese industrial belt merchants in 2025, we can analyze them from three dimensions: macroeconomic environment, industrial competition logic and policy orientation.

First, low-price competition will intensify the differentiation of industry competition. Basic manufacturing industries (such as clothing and small commodities) are still facing price competition pressure, but leading companies have transformed price wars into efficiency wars through flexible supply chains; technology-intensive industries (such as new energy and smart hardware) show value competition characteristics, and the annual average growth of 18% in R&D investment in Shenzhen's 3C industry confirms this trend; the increase in cross-border e-commerce penetration rate (expected to reach 40% in 2025) promotes the "high quality and high price" model. Anker Innovations' average order value on Amazon is 3 times the industry average.

As the industry differentiates, many structural opportunity windows have emerged. For example, the county economic revitalization policy has spawned new demand in the sinking market, and Pinduoduo's "New Brand Plan" has incubated more than 1,500 industrial belt brands. There are also new consumption scenarios such as the silver economy and the single economy that create segmented tracks. The Cao County Hanfu Industrial Belt has launched a customized product line for Generation Z.

DeepSeek believes that there are four core paths to supply chain upgrading: digital reconstruction of production processes, flexible capability building, green supply chain transformation, and cross-border supply chain integration.

When it comes to ecological strategies to enhance industry potential, DeepSeek believes that there are the following points:

-Technology empowerment system construction: Nantong home textile industry belt and Donghua University jointly built a research and development center, and functional fabric patents increased by 300%

- Brand matrix development: Liuzhou snail noodle industry belt creates a three-level system of "regional brand + corporate brand + product brand"

-Service-oriented transformation path: XCMG shifts from equipment sales to overall solutions of "product + finance + operation and maintenance"

-Industrial cluster collaborative innovation: Suzhou Biomedicine Industrial Park builds a three-level carrier of "incubator-accelerator-industrial base"

-Use policy levers to deeply participate in the "specialization, refinement, specialization and innovation" cultivation project and strive for policy dividends such as additional deductions for R&D expenses

Therefore, merchants in the industrial belt should establish a three-dimensional upgrade model of "technical anchor point + data middle platform + ecological niche", and form irreplaceable node value in the subdivided field by embedding the "chain leader system" system of regional key industrial chains. At the same time, pay attention to the "pilot enterprise" cultivation catalog of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the digital business enterprise pilot of the Ministry of Commerce, and achieve leapfrog development with the help of policy potential.

4. The United States cancels the tax-free policy for small packages, and the localization of cross-border e-commerce operations is accelerated

DeepSeek believes that the US's cancellation of the "de minimis rule" tariff exemption policy will trigger a structural change in the cross-border e-commerce model. We can conduct an in-depth analysis from three levels: impact transmission, response strategies, and industry reconstruction:

First, the policy impact will lead to a dramatic change in the cross-border cost structure, the reconstruction of the logistics system, and the escalation of the compliance risks of the platform. This has caused the costs of SHEIN and TEMU to continue to increase.

To cope with the crisis, SHEIN chose a nearshore manufacturing layout and established 200 cooperative factories in Brazil, with a localization productivity of 85%; Temu carried out modular production transformation, encouraging suppliers to adopt the "basic model + accessory package" combination and assemble tariff-sensitive parts locally; AliExpress launched the intelligent pricing system "Dynamic Tariff Calculator" to optimize SKU combinations and logistics routes in real time.

In terms of business model, Temu has transformed into a membership system and tested the "Prime+Subscription" model, integrating fragmented orders into periodic purchases; SHEIN launched the "virtual fitting room+group purchase tax exemption" function to activate private domain traffic; Cainiao Network developed a blockchain customs clearance system, which increased declaration efficiency by 70%.

At the same time, regional markets are also changing. The North American market is more likely to focus on high-priced categories, and emerging markets such as the Middle East (Noon platform) and Latin America (Mercado Libre) have increased their localization investment. Pinduoduo in China has restarted the "new brand overseas" plan to promote the branding of white-label products.

These countermeasures and market changes have led to a profound reconstruction of the industry ecosystem:

-Logistics infrastructure competition: Jitu Express invested $2.5 billion to build a hub warehouse in the eastern U.S., achieving 72-hour delivery to 80% of the population

Zongteng Group has built a multimodal transport network of "overseas warehouses + China-Europe express trains", reducing unit costs by 28%.

- Compliance capability differentiation: The leading platform set up a tariff planning team of 100 people and developed the HS CODE intelligent classification system

Small and medium-sized sellers are accelerating their exit, and the number of cross-border e-commerce companies deregistered in Dongguan has increased by 320% month-on-month.

-Power transfer in the value chain: Retail giants such as Walmart and Target restarted their own e-commerce platforms, using their local warehouse and distribution advantages to grab market share. Payment service provider PingPong launched a "tariff prepayment" financial product, which increased capital turnover efficiency by 40%.

In short, DeepSeek recommends that major cross-border e-commerce platforms establish a "tariff elasticity calculation model" to dynamically optimize product portfolio and market layout; jointly build a "cross-border e-commerce compliance demonstration zone" with local governments to strive for regional policy breakthroughs; invest in the construction of "digital customs clearance" core capabilities to form new competitive barriers.

The essence of this change is that cross-border e-commerce is at a turning point from "trade arbitrage" to "value creation". Only companies that can transform tariff pressure into digital capabilities can occupy a favorable position in the new round of global e-commerce landscape reconstruction.

5. Foreign trade deepens digitalization and gradually forms a "dual circulation"

DeepSeek believes that the new business policy in 2025 focuses on "boosting consumption" and emphasizes "stability and progress" in foreign trade and foreign investment, providing policy guidance and market opportunities for foreign trade companies. In this context, foreign trade merchants need to combine the domestic and international dual circulation and adopt the following strategies to seize opportunities and achieve growth.

First, businesses can deepen their presence in the domestic market, develop domestic and foreign trade in a coordinated manner, and make adaptive adjustments to the conversion of exports to domestic sales:

- Product localization transformation: In response to the domestic consumption upgrade trend (such as the demand for healthy, smart, and green products), adjust product design, packaging, and functions to comply with domestic certification standards (such as CCC certification).

- Channel diversification: Reach consumers through new retail models such as e-commerce platforms (such as Tmall Global and JD Global), live streaming, community group buying, or cooperate with domestic brands for OEM (ODM/OEM).

-Brand building: Use domestic social media (TikTok, Xiaohongshu) for brand marketing to build consumer awareness and avoid relying solely on low-price competition.

- Take advantage of policy dividends: Pay attention to local government subsidies for domestic sales conversion from exports (such as exhibition subsidies, logistics subsidies), tax incentives (value-added tax reduction and exemption), and "same line, same standard, same quality" (three sames) policy support.

-Digital supply chain management: Use blockchain technology to track logistics, and achieve inventory and order coordination through the ERP system to meet the demand for "small orders and fast returns".

Regarding the digital transformation and model innovation of traditional foreign trade enterprises, DeepSeek believes that foreign trade enterprises can carry out full-link digital upgrades, such as accurately reaching customers through Google SEO, TikTok short videos, and overseas celebrity marketing, and efficiently acquiring customers online; using cross-border e-commerce platform data analysis (such as Amazon Brand Analytics) to predict market trends and adjust product selection strategies; by cooperating with overseas local distributors, lowering the threshold for terminal retail; conducting DTC (direct-to-consumer) sales on overseas social platforms (such as Instagram, TikTok Shop), shortening the chain and increasing profits; increasing R&D investment or obtaining international certification to improve bargaining power.

In short, DeepSeek believes that in the short term (1 year), foreign trade companies can complete compliance transformation in key markets, deploy cross-border e-commerce independent sites, and apply for green certification; in the medium term (2-3 years), they can establish overseas warehouse networks, promote supply chain digitization, and incubate their own brands; in the long term, they can gradually form a "domestic and international dual circulation" collaborative model, build technical barriers and ESG competitiveness. At the same time, foreign companies can take advantage of the policy to expand new volume while stabilizing orders, and achieve a leap from "scale expansion" to "quality upgrade."

6: Xiao Yangge and other top anchors try their best to "come back", and the platform strengthens "ecological checks and balances"

DeepSeek believes that the exit and comeback of big anchors have always been a hot topic in the live broadcast industry, and the relationship between the platform and the anchors is also constantly evolving.

First of all, the deep logic behind the withdrawal of top anchors is mainly due to the dramatic changes in the industry environment. Today's stricter policy supervision, the peak of traffic dividends, and the involution of commercial competition are external factors; internal factors include the increased physical and psychological pressure on anchors, the anchors' transformation towards capitalization, and the anchors' desire to avoid risks.

Regarding the anchors who have not been completely banned, DeepSeek believes that most of them will temporarily exit the stage and then return.

-Luo Yonghao created topics by “exiting and returning” in order to maintain popularity.

- In order to divert traffic to the new business, Xiao Yangge stopped broadcasting for four months and started live streaming to sell goods on his "Xiao Yang Zhenxuan" during the New Year Goods Festival. Other anchors under Three Sheep are also trying to return.

- In order to obtain platform traffic support, Simba may tilt resources in exchange for a return as he faces competition from Taobao and Video Number on Douyin and Kuaishou.

-In order to respond to the core fan base, Li Ziqi made a comeback after the dispute with Weinian.

Talking about the comeback model, DeepSeek believes that the probability of a complete comeback in the "original model" in the short term (1-2 years) is low, but it may return in disguised forms such as light cooperation, brand endorsement, and cross-platform trials.

Moreover, in the future, the relationship between platforms and anchors will change from "dependence" to "checks and balances."

The platform will adjust its strategy. For example, the platform traffic distribution is decentralized, and the algorithm is more inclined to "content quality + user stay time" rather than the number of fans. The platform begins to support mid-level and vertical categories, strengthen the brand self-broadcasting ecosystem, and weaken the reliance on influencer distribution.

The anchors’ survival model will transform from “personal IP” to “matrix”, from “carrying goods” to “branding”, and from “entertainment” to “professionalization”. In addition, anchors will also be bound to social responsibilities and need to participate in agricultural assistance and public welfare live broadcasts in exchange for policy support.

The compliance costs between platforms and anchors are increasing, and the terms of the agreement between the two parties are becoming more stringent. Platforms may require exclusive contracts, non-competition clauses, and liquidated damages clauses. The profit distribution between the two parties is restructured, such as the proportion of slot fees is reduced, and commissions are more closely tied to GMV.

DeepSeek concluded: The relationship between anchors and platforms will shift from "mutual achievement" to "dynamic checks and balances", and the industry will enter a mature stage of "de-superheading". Future competition will no longer be a battle for traffic of personal IPs, but a comprehensive competition of supply chain efficiency × content professionalism × compliance capabilities. Whether it is the superheads who retreat behind the scenes or the emerging forces, only those who adapt to the rules can survive.

7. Instant Retail: The Turning Point Shifts from “Scale” to “Quality”

DeepSeek believes that by 2025, the instant retail business of local life platforms such as Meituan and Ele.me will present three major characteristics: technology-driven efficiency revolution, accelerated dissolution of business boundaries, and explosion of ecological synergy value. While the market size will exceed 1.2 trillion, industry competition will shift from extensive expansion to refined operations.

First, technology has brought about a reconstruction of efficiency. For example, the evolution of intelligent dispatching systems, such as Meituan's "Super Brain" system and Ele.me's "Hummingbird Instant Delivery" system, have reduced computing costs; unmanned delivery has been applied on a large scale, such as Meituan's fourth-generation drones and the logistics robot "Little Donkey" developed by Ele.me and Alibaba Damo Academy, which has reduced labor costs.

Looking at the innovation at the scene level, various platforms have changed from "delivering takeout" to "delivering everything". The category structure of delivery products has changed, with the proportion of catering dropping from 65% to 50%, the proportion of 3C digital products (mobile phone accessories/small appliances) increasing to 18%, and the annual growth rate of pet products exceeding 120%. The service industry has changed, with local services such as medical beauty/housekeeping being connected to instant retail.

In addition to the above trends, Meituan, Ele.me, and JD.com will also compete in areas such as traffic and supply chain integration.

However, when it comes to profitability, DeepSeek believes that the turning point of profitability will be from prioritizing scale to prioritizing quality:

- Dynamic pricing system is mature: adopting the "basic delivery fee + demand premium" model, premium orders account for 40% during peak periods, and each order increases revenue by 2.8 yuan. The membership system contributes 35% of revenue, and the retention rate of "super members" with an annual fee of 199 yuan exceeds 80%.

- Data asset monetization: Merchant BI system subscription revenue exceeded 5 billion yuan, and heat maps/customer group portraits enabled site selection and product selection. Cooperated with brand owners to carry out "instant marketing", and the conversion rate of new product launches was three times that of traditional e-commerce.

DeepSeek concluded that instant retail will evolve into a new business model of "digital infrastructure + instant response + emotional connection", the essence of which is consumers' ultimate pursuit of "time value". The key to platform competition lies in whether the fulfillment time can be upgraded from "30 minutes" to "demand foresight", which requires the deep integration of AIoT technology and supply chain network. In the next two years, this track will witness the most profound digital transformation of physical business by Internet giants.

8. AI is accelerating its popularity and becoming a new driving force for e-commerce growth

DeepSeek believes that artificial intelligence technology, especially large models like DeepSeek, is profoundly reshaping the e-commerce industry. This impact is not only reflected in the improvement of efficiency and user experience, but also in the reconstruction of business models and industry value chains.

First, it is a paradigm shift in consumer experience. The big model can integrate visual, voice, and semantic understanding capabilities, allowing shopping to break through the limitations of text; by analyzing the user's digital footprint, AI can proactively push solutions before the user clearly states their needs; AI assistants with industry knowledge graphs can replace traditional shopping guides.

In terms of supply chain system reconstruction, the big model can provide suggestions to merchants through real-time analysis to reduce risks such as unsalable products and after-sales service. Through the AI ​​design system, customized product solutions can be quickly generated to shorten the production cycle.

Of course, the application of artificial intelligence technology in the field of e-commerce is not limited to this. It can also promote innovation in the business ecosystem:

-The rise of metaverse e-commerce: Nike’s virtual flagship store on Roblox uses AI to generate limited digital collections. In 2022, digital product revenue exceeded US$185 million, which in turn fed back a 31% increase in physical store traffic.

- Intelligent social commerce: TikTok Shop’s AI editing tool can automatically extract highlights from live broadcasts and generate short video ads that are tailored to each individual user, increasing the ROI of a certain beauty brand by 6 times.

-Zero marginal cost retail: SHEIN's AI design system produces an average of 45,000 designs per day. Combined with real-time sales forecasts, it enables flexible production with a minimum order of 100 pieces, and an inventory turnover period of only 30 days (the industry average is 90 days).

In the future, the evolution of artificial intelligence will include: embodied intelligent shopping guides, quantum computing pricing, neural rendering e-commerce and many other aspects. DeepSeek believes that this change is advancing at the speed of Moore's Law. It is worth noting that the Southeast Asian e-commerce market has achieved "leapfrog" development through AI technology. In 2023, the AI ​​customer service processing capacity of TikTok Shop Vietnam Station has surpassed that of the US local team.

DeepSeek recommends that practitioners focus on multimodal interaction, the combination of edge computing and AI, and technological innovation under the ESG framework. The future e-commerce competition is essentially a competition for the perfection of the AI ​​ecosystem.

9. Old domestic brands are reborn, and the silver economy and pet economy have become new consumption points

DeepSeek analyzed that the large-scale reshuffle of new consumer brands in the past few years reflects the rationalization of the market after the decline of traffic dividends. In 2025, time-honored brands may be rejuvenated, such as the healthy transformation and scenario innovation in the food and beverage industry:

-Tong Ren Tang: Relying on the concept of "medicine and food have the same origin", it launched ready-to-drink herbal teas, liver-protecting soft candies for staying up late, etc. Its health food line has grown by 40% in 2023.

-Wufangzhai: Develop low-sugar rice dumplings and plant-based meat mooncakes to cater to the needs of sugar control and vegetarianism.

- Dong-E E-Jiao: Launched instant E-Jiao freeze-dried powder and collagen peptide drinks to solve the pain point of the cumbersome consumption of traditional E-Jiao.

In the field of beauty and personal care, there are many new uses for ancient methods:

- Xie Fuchun: Upgraded the traditional duck egg powder into "skin-nourishing setting powder" and added dendrobium essence. The online channel accounted for 68%.

- Kong Fengchun: Replicated the formula of "goose egg powder" used by Empress Dowager Cixi, combined with modern anti-aging technology to launch the "herbal anti-wrinkle" series.

Cultural co-branding, in the field of cultural IP:

- Rongbaozhai: Digital ink NFT auction set a record of 3.8 million per piece, and simultaneously developed an AR study teaching system to enter the education technology track

- Nei Liansheng: Using 3D foot scanning + AI design to launch "Thousands of Feet, Thousands of Faces" customized shoes, the conversion rate is 4.2 times higher than traditional products

DeepSeek believes that there are several new consumer brands that may emerge:

-Technology of the silver economy: Japan's Panasonic's "excretion prediction nursing bed" saves 30% of nursing time, and domestic companies will integrate flexible sensors with community service systems.

- Virtual consumption infrastructure: Virtual idols’ conversion efficiency exceeds that of real anchors by 37% (Tmall data in 2024), giving rise to the explosion of 3D product modeling service providers

-Pet anthropomorphic consumption: emotional healing services, such as VR reproduction of pet funerals (recording interactive scenes before death), anti-depressant pheromone spray for cats and dogs. High-end nutritional products, such as customized genetically tested dog food (based on breed and intestinal flora ratio), related financing has exceeded 20 in 2023.

DeepSeek believes that it is recommended to focus on two types of companies: time-honored brands with century-old data assets (such as Hu Qingyu Tang's millions of TCM medical records), and new consumer groups with integrated production and research capabilities (Huaxi Bio-style vertical integration). The real winning point lies in whether the three-dimensional competitive barriers of "cultural heritage × hard technology × scenario insight" can be built.

10. In 2025, e-commerce will shift from incremental "incremental expansion" to "stock deep cultivation"

DeepSeek believes that the e-commerce industry will enter a new cycle of "intensive cultivation" in 2025, showing six major structural change trends in the stock market:

1. User operation revolution (from traffic pool to relationship chain)

The membership systems of various platforms have been restructured, with the membership penetration rate of the leading platforms exceeding 50% (JD PLUS reaching 120 million members), and the proportion of items exclusively priced for members exceeding 40%; various platforms have refined user operations through AI emotional interactions, for example, Ali Xiaomi has achieved an emotion recognition accuracy rate of 92%, and the success rate of intelligent order retention has increased to 35%; cross-platform identity integration, the WeChat-Taobao user portrait connection rate exceeds 60%, and cross-platform LTV calculation has become standard.

2. Spatial computing reconstructs consumption scenarios

AR try-on helps clothing categories improve conversion rates, Metaverse stores increase users’ shopping time, and IoT consumption simplifies transaction links.

3. New stage of globalization 2.0

In terms of cross-border e-commerce, localization has become a trend in emerging markets. For example, Temu's self-built warehouses in Southeast Asia account for more than 70%, and SHEIN's local supply chain in Brazil accounts for 50%. At the same time, cross-border live streaming has become normalized, with AliExpress's live streaming GMV in the Spanish-speaking region accounting for 35%, and the 24-hour time difference live streaming technology is mature.

4. Revaluation of supply chain

Instant retail infrastructure war: Meituan’s lightning warehouses expand to 5,000, and Cainiao’s forward warehouses cover 80% of communities

C2M deep customization: Pinduoduo’s agricultural product customization accounts for more than 30%, and the pre-sale cycle is shortened to 72 hours

Construction of an anti-fragile system: regional supply chain coverage reaches 60%, and emergency response time is increased to 2 hours

5. Paradigm shift in content e-commerce

The AI ​​director revolution has reduced content production costs by 90%, for example, the proportion of AIGC short videos on Douyin exceeds 40%; social asset monetization, for example, the conversion rate of product recommendation notes on Xiaohongshu has exceeded 5%, and the KOC distribution system has matured; real-time virtual human live broadcasts have reduced labor costs, and even the conversion efficiency has reached 90% of that of real anchors.

6. Regulation reshapes competition rules

Algorithm transparency: Disclosure of recommendation mechanisms becomes a legal obligation for platforms, and the user intervention rate reaches 15%.

Ecological responsibility sharing: the platform's "choose one of two" ban extends to logistics and payment links, and third-party service providers are required to account for more than 30%

Digital tax implementation: the scope of cross-border retail VAT collection has been expanded, and the proportion of compliance costs has increased to 12%.

DeepSeek recommends that companies focus on investing in spatial computing technology (AR try-on investment return ratio reaches 1:8), accelerate the integration of membership system and WeChat ecosystem (public-private domain linkage increases repurchase rate by 25%), and build localized content factories in Southeast Asia/Middle East (localization rate reaches more than 70%).

Author | Miwa