“Durian blind box” is on the hot search, why is durian getting more and more expensive?

The high price of durian is nothing new, and the "durian blind box" that frequently appears on hot searches also reflects its price and quality. In this article, the author discusses the phenomenon of consumers falling in love with durian blind boxes and topics related to durian prices. Let's take a look.

This year's foodies, some rushed to buy durian blind boxes in offline supermarkets, while others waited in the live broadcast room, waiting for "3, 2, 1" to open the blind box.

Topics related to durian have almost never left the hot search lists. Price increase, price reduction, blind box, "assassin"... many topic words piece together a complete picture of durian consumption.

Durian related topics

Durian blind boxes are nothing new, they are actually "buying a whole durian". Because it is impossible to accurately identify from the appearance how many flesh cells there are in the durian and how big the flesh is (that is, what the industry calls the "flesh yield"), this seemingly ordinary consumption method has a certain randomness and surprise, and has also given rise to the so-called "gratitude durian" and "revenge durian" Internet memes - the former is a metaphor for durian with full flesh, and the latter is just the opposite.

"Durian is expensive, so everyone hopes to get value for money. But the durian flesh is wrapped inside the shell, invisible and intangible, so it requires a bit of experience and luck to pick. The higher price and uncertainty, this sense of contradiction, makes opening a durian tense and exciting." A enthusiast who has opened multiple durian blind boxes explained her consumption motivation.

Durian for “repaying gratitude” and durian for “revenge”

The spiritual sustenance behind the "blind box gameplay" was passed down by chance on durian. The topic of "durian blind box" on Douyin has been played nearly 5 billion times. On Xiaohongshu, there are more than 70,000 notes related to "opening durian".

Consumers are well aware of the popular science and guidelines for purchasing durian. If you enter the keyword durian on Taobao, there will be purchasing instructions at the top for everything from varieties and specifications to brands. There are also systematic purchasing notes on Xiaohongshu.

So when we talk about durian blind boxes, it seems that we are discussing a social game and a consumption method pursued by young people. In fact, we are still talking about market factors such as the price, quality, and sales volume of durian. Behind the fun of durian blind boxes, what consumers really care about is the durian meat yield and price stability.

We interviewed Zhang Lingli, the fruit purchasing director of RT-Mart, and Jin Lu, a major Thai durian distributor, and learned that the "blind box attribute" of durian can be overcome by optimizing the supply chain. As for when durian freedom can be achieved, perhaps we have to wait a little longer.

1. Foodies fall in love with durian blind boxes

Whether it is a "blind box" of whole durians or a loose sale of the flesh, these are the conventional ways of selling fruits. Just like watermelons can be sold whole or cut, durian is no exception. "Durian is not cheap, and the loose sale of the flesh is flexible, which can satisfy some consumers with smaller appetites and avoid waste. Selling the whole fruit is easier for consumers to transport and store," Zhang Lingli introduced.

"Some durians mature quickly and their shells crack, so they need to be separated into the flesh and sold quickly. However, generally speaking, the sales of whole fruits are greater than those of retail sales," Jin Lu added.

For RT-Mart, the final price of durian flesh is almost the same whether the durian is sold as a whole or peeled. When the supermarket sets the price for durian flesh, it will refer to the flesh yield of the whole durian. The two price systems are consistent and not isolated.

However, in Zhang Lingli's eyes, the popularity of durian blind boxes on social media has boosted the popularity of the durian category, but it also reminds practitioners that they still need to work hard. The reason why durian consumption has the attributes of a blind box is that the "meat yield rate" of durian is unstable. Some durians look very full in shape and color, but the flesh that comes out is very small and the quantity is not much. Some durians seem ordinary, but give people a surprise.

There are many posts on the Internet about how to choose durian based on appearance, and Jinlu also said that there are skills to choosing fruits. "Durian with a full, rounded appearance, short spikes, and golden color generally has a higher meat yield, but nothing is 100% certain."

“As practitioners, we have the ability to control the supply chain and achieve a stable meat yield for whole-unit sales, without having to rely on the concept of blind boxes for marketing.” Zhang Lingli introduced that RT-Mart now has employees stationed in the places of origin, who will inspect various orchards and screen out those places of origin with stable quality.

At every stage, we monitor the shape and color of the durian, and conduct random inspections. If the "number of cells" (the amount of flesh inside the durian) does not meet the standards, we will request a return of the batch of goods.

In addition, offline supermarkets such as RT-Mart and online e-commerce platforms will conduct comprehensive evaluations on the origin and appearance of durian, classify durian into grade A and grade B for tiered sales, and sell some items that look very similar to "revenge durian" at low prices. These measures are all aimed at improving the stability of durian's meat yield and preventing it from becoming a "blind box".

It can be seen that although the durian blind box seems fun, it is actually a kind of helplessness for consumers. However, with the improvement of the control level on the supply side, durian consumption is expected to have a relatively stable experience like other fruits. "We are currently encouraging consumers to place orders directly online, so that consumers can believe that the quality of every durian purchased online is very stable, and enhance their consumption confidence, rather than forcing them to come to offline stores to pick and choose." Zhang Lingli said.

2. Why does durian become more expensive the more you eat it?

Durian is the fruit with the largest import value in my country.

From 2017 to the present (except for 2020, which was greatly affected by the epidemic), my country's durian import volume and import value have steadily increased. In 2017, the annual import volume was only 224,400 tons, but by 2021, this figure had reached 821,500 tons, nearly quadrupling.

This year, my country's durian imports in the first four months are close to the full year of 2017 (as of April 2023, my country imported a total of 220,700 tons of fresh durian).

When demand exceeds supply, prices will rise. A while ago, the topic of "durian price increase" became a hot search topic. Consumers from all over the country concluded that durian has become more expensive based on their observations of local durian prices. And from the macro data, durian has indeed become more expensive.

Guangzhou Jiangnan Market is the largest fruit and vegetable trading market in Asia, and almost half of the country's imported fruit transactions take place here. According to the price index recently released by Guangzhou Jiangnan Market, the lowest average wholesale price of Thai imported durian appeared on April 25, at 40.59 yuan/kg; and from May 5 to May 11, the average price of Thai imported durian rose to about 45 yuan/kg.

Durian prices have also risen on e-commerce platforms. Currently, the price of 6-7 catties Thai Golden Pillow Durian on Tmall Supermarket is 239.9 yuan, and 7-8 catties is 279.9 yuan. Some netizens reported that the price is about 20 yuan more expensive than half a month ago.

Because of the coincidence of time, some people think that it was Simba who promoted durian, which limited the supply of durian in other channels and pushed up the price. However, from the perspective of overall purchase volume, Simba's sales volume exceeded RMB 300 million, and my country imports more than several billion US dollars of durian every year. It is hard to say that the promotion of one or two anchors can affect the price of goods in such a huge market.

On May 12, Simba's team responded: "From the sales volume, combined with the public customs data, the total durian import volume in 2022 was 825,000 tons, worth US$4.03 billion, of which 780,000 tons came from Thailand. The sales volume of durian in Xinxuan's live broadcast room was about 4,800 tons, which means that the durian sales volume accounted for only 0.58%, which is extremely small and far from the so-called monopoly."

The Guangzhou Municipal Market Supervision Administration also issued a statement saying that due to the supply and demand relationship during holidays, the wholesale sales price of Thai durian in Jiangnan Market has fluctuated slightly, and no price violations such as hoarding and price gouging have been found.

From a more objective perspective, the price of durian is affected by many factors, including season, logistics, and exchange rate. Jinlu explained that April is the period when Thai durian is put on the market on a large scale, with sufficient supply and active sales, so the price is relatively low. Since mid-May, it is close to the end of the durian production season in the eastern part of Thailand, and the production capacity has shrunk. Merchants have slowed down their sales rhythm, so the price will naturally rise.

In other words, the price of durian has indeed increased, but this is an adjustment based on normal market fluctuations. In a longer period of time, the price of durian is generally upward, after all, domestic consumers' demand for durian has been increasing.

Jin Lu added that ten years ago, the wholesale price of durian could be as low as 9.9 yuan per catty, but times are different now. The consumption volume is no longer at the same level. Taking into account factors such as inflation and exchange rates, the price of durian is actually showing a natural growth trend.

Source of chart: Agricultural Planet

"A few years ago, the discussion about durian was still 'How can anyone like to eat durian?', but you will find that nowadays, few people cannot accept the taste of durian at all, and the public's acceptance is getting higher and higher." Zhang Lingli emphasized that the growth of durian market demand is directly related to the increase in public acceptance of durian. At the same time, brand supermarkets such as RT-Mart will screen and control the quality of durian in the early stage, so the relatively stable consumption experience of durian in recent years has also contributed to the market favorability of this fruit.

"The durian in my store is sold out every day." The media interviewed the owner of a fruit store in Hangzhou Nongfa City Kitchen. He said that in May, the supply was sufficient and the price was low, but the store did not dare to buy in large quantities for fear of being stuck with a big loss. Later, when the price went up, durian was still in great demand, so much so that you had to snatch it from the fruit market to buy golden pillow durian.

In addition, roasted durian, durian cake, coffee, and milk tea are emerging in an endless stream in the catering market today... The popularity of durian products is itself a profile of the rising popularity of durian as a fruit.

This is also related to the progress of logistics and warehousing. In the past, it usually took about 7 days for Thai durian to enter the Chinese market by sea transport and about 5 days by road transport. However, with the help of the "China-Laos Railway" (the China-Laos International Railway Channel, connecting Kunming, Yunnan Province, China and Vientiane, Laos) , the time has been shortened to 3 days. The improvement of logistics efficiency and cold chain technology has made the supply of durian in China more sufficient.

3. Can the price of domestic durian be brought down?

Thailand has long been the world's largest durian exporter. In 2022, durian sold from Thailand accounted for 93.3% of the world's total. More than 90% of my country's durian also comes from Thailand. But now, Thailand's market share seems to be challenged.

In July 2022, the General Administration of Customs of China issued an announcement to allow the import of fresh durian from Vietnam that meets relevant requirements. On January 7, 2023, the General Administration of Customs issued another announcement to allow the import of fresh durian from the Philippines that meets relevant requirements.

Globally, Thailand's durian share has also decreased by 3.9% so far this year, with its main competitors being Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

This is good news for consumers. In the past, when talking about durian, one must mention the "Golden Pillow", which is the representative variety of Thailand and once became synonymous with durian. But this year, many durian market practitioners told reporters that the Philippines' Puya and Vietnam's Gan Yao have entered the Chinese market and their quality is good.

For durian producing areas, this is a business diversion. But for consumers, the rich and diversified supply brought about by competition makes the quality of durian more stable, and most importantly, it allows producing areas to "lower" the price of durian. In addition, in my country's large durian base in Hainan, more than 1,000 acres of durian have "beared fruit" this year, and another 10,000 acres are ready to bear fruit.

According to the person in charge of Sanya Municipal Agriculture and Rural Affairs Bureau, Sanya plans to plant 50,000 mu of durian in the future. Based on the yield of 3,500 kilograms per mu, the production capacity of 50,000 mu in the future may reach 80,000 tons (close to one-tenth of China's current annual import scale) . This is a significant supplement to China's durian supply.

Jin Lu explained to reporters that the imminent release of Hainan durian into the market is a very good and positive signal. However, we still need to wait for the expectation that local durian will "set the bar" for durian prices. "The replenishment of production capacity may not keep up with the growth of demand. The cultivation cycle of durian trees is very long, and it takes seven or eight years to be truly put on the market. However, consumers' love for durian is almost increasing day by day."

Author: Shen Songnan

Source: WeChat public account "E-commerce Online (ID: dianshangmj)"