2023, 10 predictions for the video account ecosystem

The collision between the video account and the WeChat ecosystem has also released huge energy and developed better and better. So can the WeChat video account continue to shine in the "C position" in 2023? This article analyzes the top 10 predictions for the video account ecosystem. Let's take a look.

As Tencent’s “hope for the entire company”, Video Account has delivered a brilliant answer.

As the most atomic content component, the video account and the WeChat ecosystem have stimulated a rich chemical reaction and released huge energy. So can the WeChat video account continue to shine in the "C position" in 2023?

Party A Finance brings 10 guesses from the industry perspective. Predictions are not easy, and some people may think after seeing some of the following predictions: Isn’t this obvious? Or is this a bit too subjective?

Standing at the beginning of the new year, it is not easy to draw direct conclusions about the future. However, leaving these predictions for everyone to discuss and verify is also an interesting thinking process.

OK, let’s get straight to the point –

Prediction 1: The anchor is no longer a signboard but a brand: probability coefficient 85%

In the consumption scenario of live e-commerce, the relationship between "people and goods" is closer to the relationship between "people and people", and the anchor is the key connector of this relationship.

But since the rise of live streaming, 20% of the top anchors have occupied 80% of the user's attention. The serious Matthew effect seems to be a hurdle that cannot be crossed. It is difficult to find thousands of soldiers, and it is even more difficult to find a general. The world has suffered from anchors for a long time.

To some extent, the current live streaming e-commerce market has developed to the limit of this stage. When all discussions come to an abrupt end with the top anchors, the problem is thrown back to the brands and platforms.

Video Account is already 3 years old, and 2023 is a crucial year. In an internal speech, Pony Ma also put Video Account at the top of the annual strategic direction, calling it "the hope of the whole village."

For advertisers, this is undoubtedly good news. This level of attention means that Video Account may usher in huge operating resources in 2023 and release more commercial traffic.

In the past one or two years, video accounts have become a "brand position" that merchants have unanimously agreed on. At present, video accounts are no longer limited to content display. The core applications of the four levels, including video publishing, live broadcasting, e-commerce, and services, have become a platform that can open up business operation links.

The biggest difference between Video Account and other live streaming platforms is that it can promote the linkage between public and private domains more efficiently. This capability can allow brands to shorten the time cost in the initial cold start-up period. For long-term brand operations, it can also continue to activate the traffic accumulated in the private domain and realize the long-term brand operation.

In addition, brands can also use different functions to achieve different operational goals according to their needs. For example, SAIC Volkswagen uses video accounts as a promotional window to regularly update brand stories and high-quality advertisements to enhance brand awareness and image.

Midea uses video accounts to convert transactions and expand incremental business, and users can directly enter stores of various sub-categories. Vivo chooses to provide refined services on video accounts, realize a closed loop of online and offline after-sales services, and improve the entire shopping experience process.

It can be said that brands can become the number one player of Video Account through their brand roles. The content matrix of Video Account will become an important carrier for corporate brand marketing, and Video Account live broadcast will exist for a long time as an "Always online" store in the WeChat ecosystem, playing a key role in user services and transactions.

Prediction 2: Opening up a new e-commerce attribute: probability coefficient 82%

If we take a closer look at the current mainstream e-commerce companies, we can see that each has developed its own unique attributes. Taobao is a platform company, JD.com is a logistics company, Pinduoduo is a social networking company, Douyin is a hobby company, and Kuaishou is a market-driven company. For video accounts that entered the market relatively late, it is very likely that they will develop new attributes such as "brand power" and "strong social binding" in the future.

Everything has a trace.

During the Double Eleven event in 2022, Video Account did three seemingly insignificant things: one was to announce the Double Eleven brand incentives and make a special topic; one was to invite many big brands to launch live broadcasts; and one was to improve the capabilities of Video Account stores and launch the Preferred Alliance.

This seemingly quiet routine operation has actually created a trend among merchants. In fact, many people overlook that before the birth of the video account, there has always been a huge root system in the WeChat ecosystem: micro-business and community e-commerce.

Although these operations are in a gray area, the transaction volume has accumulated to a large enough level. Therefore, after the emergence of video accounts, in addition to the joining of brands, the merchants accumulated in the WeChat ecosystem have a transparent, open and formal sales channel. This is also a major reason why video account e-commerce will be different from other products.

After possessing natural brand resources, video account live broadcast can fully activate private domains and revitalize the circulation of public and private domain traffic. It is also the ability that video account can give to brands for growth based on the WeChat ecosystem.

You should know that Video Account is not an independent product, but is defined by WeChat as the "most atomic content component". As a way to present WeChat's video capabilities, it has penetrated the entire WeChat ecosystem like capillaries. Therefore, the monthly active users of Video Account are almost equal to the monthly active users of WeChat, a national-level product.

QuestMobile data shows that as of June 2022, the monthly active user scale of Video Account has exceeded 800 million, successfully surpassing Douyin and Kuaishou. According to Tencent's second quarter financial report, the usage time of Video Account has also approached that of Moments, accounting for 80%.

For brands, video accounts will become the next blue ocean to be explored. After all, the dissemination and fission links based on acquaintances and semi-acquaintances, as well as the commercial value that has been revealed in the era of WeChat business and mini programs, are irresistible.

Of course, the closed-loop traffic model of the video account requires higher operational capabilities from brand merchants. They need to put in far more operational effort than Douyin and Kuaishou to create private domain traffic in order to get a share of the pie in the public domain traffic of the video account.

Prediction 3: Cultural live broadcast will become the top feature: probability coefficient 90%

In April 2022, Cui Jian's first commercial concert on WeChat Video Account lasted about 3 hours, attracted over 46 million viewers, and received over 120 million likes, successfully triggering a wave of phenomenal screen-sweeping events.

Cultural performances such as concerts account for half of the live streaming traffic on Video Accounts.

At the end of 2021, Westlife sang "Ordinary Road" and kicked off the live broadcast of the video account concert with over 20 million viewers.

On the last night of the same year, Mayday's concert was all over the WeChat Moments, with 13.71 million views of the live broadcast by 12:00, which was destined to become another milestone in the history of video accounts. In 2022, the names of heavyweight singers such as Li Jian, Luo Dayou, Jay Chou and Leslie Cheung took turns to be on the screen of video accounts.

According to Xinbang data, in 2022, Video Account had a total of 12 live broadcasts throughout the year with a cumulative audience of more than 10 million. Among the top ten live broadcast rooms, concert live broadcasts accounted for 80%, and the other two were from "CCTV News."

Backed by the social traffic of WeChat, the advantages of video accounts are self-evident. The impact of the epidemic and the resonance of emotions also added to the screen-sweeping of concert live broadcasts. But more importantly, video accounts are already a relatively mature content ecosystem. Data shows that the number of original content views on video accounts has increased by more than 350%, the number of authors with more than 10,000 fans has increased by more than 308%, and the average daily video upload volume has increased by 100%.

Of course, what is more important is that, unlike Douyin, which mainly relies on algorithm recommendations, the spread of video accounts has a ripple effect. It is centered on "self" and pushes outward layer by layer based on blood ties, kinship and geography, like-minded people, circles, etc., just like a stone thrown into the water, splashing layers of ripples, which push farther and farther.

In this regard, car companies seem to be reaching a certain consensus, viewing music performances as a promotional opportunity to shape brand value, give back to car owners, attract traffic, and increase visibility.

For example, SAIC and Tencent Music jointly held the first "WAVE Music Festival" in Wanning, Hainan; BYD and Huawei Music jointly created the "Lushu Music Festival" which ended at Guangzhou Livehouse; Changan Automobile and the cultural and creative brand Rongzao created an online concert...

This also indicates that in the future, more and more brand marketing will use concerts, theme live broadcasts, etc. as carriers to achieve marketing effects through the social fission of video live broadcasts.

Prediction 4: One or two S-level anchors will explode: probability coefficient 65%

As video live streaming becomes popular, video accounts will also become popular. The two are mutually reinforcing. The huge ability to create topics will definitely attract more native bloggers and Kuaishou bloggers to migrate here.

So far, Douyin has Luo Yonghao, Kuaishou has Simba, Taobao has Li Jiaqi, but WeChat Video Account does not have any big anchors that can be named.

To some extent, video accounts do not need big anchors. The people who broadcast live on video accounts are divided into professional teams and ordinary users. The latter have more or less private domain traffic. These existing customers, supply chains and other resources are the best cold start resources, which are enough to support a small-scale operation, but at present this group is not enough to produce phenomenal anchors.

But this does not prevent the emergence of one or two S-level anchors in the future at a certain point in time and during a specific event, creating a phenomenal screen-sweeping event.

From the perspective of the content creation environment, Video Account has made great efforts to protect and encourage originality in the past year. In addition to restricting shoddy work and plagiarism and imitation, strategies such as creator recruitment and incentive plans, and lowering monetization thresholds have stimulated the confidence and motivation of more content creators from a positive perspective, thereby driving the overall improvement of content quality.

From the perspective of the live broadcast environment, in the past year, the official Video Account has successively launched New Year's Eve celebrations, celebrity concerts, cultural and museum exhibitions, summer open courses, opera and drama, e-commerce sales and other directions, covering the various needs of users. For example, the knowledge live broadcast column "Eight Ten" has created a data record of 1,500 annual broadcasts and 40,000 column broadcasts.

Today, the number of viewers of live broadcasts on Video Account has increased by more than 300%, the viewing time has increased by 156%, and the number of high-quality broadcasts has increased by 614%.

From the perspective of the business environment, video accounts have been accelerating, launching information flow ads, video account stores, connecting video account stores with WeChat customer service, and launching live broadcast heating and other functions. Among them, information flow ads are considered by the industry to be the largest source of income for video accounts in the future.

As product capabilities become richer, more and more short video marketing budgets will be injected into video accounts, and more creators will follow, forming a stable triangle model of creators-brands-video accounts. When a certain number is reached, it is reasonable to form 1 or 2 phenomenal hit anchors.

Prediction 5: Activating the under-the-surface elderly consumer group: probability coefficient 70%

The battle for middle-aged and elderly users among Douyin, Kuaishou, and WeChat Video has never stopped.

The largest incremental market for live streaming e-commerce in the future will undoubtedly be middle-aged and elderly users. Compared with other age groups, the elderly are the group with the highest sustained attention to short videos and the lowest reduced attention. Their consumption power cannot be underestimated, and it is easier for them to complete transaction conversions in the live streaming room.

Official WeChat data shows that the audience of video account live e-commerce is relatively mature, with women accounting for 80%, and users in first-, second- and third-tier cities accounting for 60%, with strong consumption power. In 2022, the average customer unit price of video account live streaming exceeded 200 yuan, and clothing, food and beauty products were the three best-selling categories in video accounts.

It is not difficult to find that since the emergence of video accounts, more and more middle-aged and elderly people have become habitually "addicted", and recommendations from acquaintances are the key to social interaction for the middle-aged and elderly groups. In the past year, the increase in middle-aged and elderly creators and content in video accounts, such as Uncle Mana, Fashion Grandma Group, Junhai Calligraphy, Chen Libao Suona, etc., means that more middle-aged and elderly users can be attracted to enter, and the two complement each other.

Compared with young people, the elderly have a strong set of self-preference standards when watching short videos and live broadcasts. Once a host can win their attention and favor with his or her own characteristics, they will easily develop a sense of trust and drive consumption. If the experience is satisfactory, then this behavior is likely to be continuous and long-term.

In other words, middle-aged and elderly people are more likely to "recognize" a certain anchor and therefore make multiple repurchases in the same live broadcast room.

Of course, "persuading" the elderly is also a task for brands. After all, the scope and standards of consumption demand of the middle-aged and elderly are becoming wider and wider. More and more people are willing to ask for advice and learn in the live broadcast room, and complete the purchase behavior while satisfying their curiosity. This "area that is not very familiar but very interesting" may be another outlet for capturing the traffic of the middle-aged and elderly.

Prediction 6 Main battlefield of clue industry: probability coefficient 88%

Video accounts have already formed a set of traffic sedimentation strategies from public domains to private domains. For brands, video account live broadcast rooms are not just sales channels, but a new form of user position that has the opportunity to connect online and offline business models.

In the lead industry, video accounts have become the frontline for expanding new customers from the public domain, because end users will settle on corporate WeChat, where customer acquisition is more important than sales.

The inherent advantage of the video account is that it can be directly connected to private traffic pools such as WeChat official accounts, personal accounts, and mini-programs. The interoperability between the video account and corporate WeChat has made a huge contribution to directing public domain traffic to the private domain.

In the public domain traffic pool, the cost is often one-time. Although Taobao, Douyin and other platforms have sufficient traffic, the price is high. Users who are not in the traffic pool cannot be reached multiple times. However, users who have settled in WeChat can be operated in the long term.

For WeChat for Business, the interoperability with Video Account can lead more companies to register Video Account and spread more effectively through Video Account. For Video Account, WeChat for Business means more external entrances, usage scenarios, and the possibility of introducing off-site traffic. All of these will benefit businesses in the end.

Every update of corporate WeChat and video accounts is worthy of careful study by merchants in the lead industry.

Prediction 7: More and more To B companies choose to dig deeper: probability coefficient 75%

There will be a major trend in the future - To B content will be delivered to customers in a more understandable way.

As traffic becomes more and more expensive, ToB companies are also in urgent need of new and accurate traffic fields. However, one characteristic of ToB companies is that they have a long decision-making cycle and require a higher level of trust.

The attributes of different platforms currently have different effects on To B corporate marketing. For example, the entrances to Douyin and Kuaishou mainly come from recommendation flows and attention flows, with the characteristics of weak relationships and strong content. Likes can enhance the distribution strength of the system, and it is easy to form a PGC to UGC imitation effect; the entrance to Bilibili mainly comes from the homepage/partition recommendation flow, attention flow and user active search, with the characteristics of community characteristics, suitable for the dissemination of high-quality PGC content.

In contrast, WeChat video accounts have an acquaintance effect and strong social attributes. Through social relationships, they can penetrate outward in circles, making it easier to influence potential customers and even customer decision makers. The traffic they bring is also more accurate, and they can achieve the superposition of public domain traffic and private domain traffic. At the same time, video accounts can also carry text and links to corporate public accounts, which can be forwarded to Moments and various chat scenarios.

Another very important point is the logic of recommendation and dissemination based on friends. When one of your customers watches and likes your video, it means that it also potentially affects his friends in his circle of friends. For To B companies, traffic will be more accurate and can quickly build trust.

Regarding the "like" behavior on various platforms at present, the "user recognition" required by Video Account is the strongest among all platforms, which is basically the recognition of content as social currency.

Prediction 8: Ad placement algorithm emphasizes the back-end link: probability coefficient 60%

Since the opening of feed ads, Video Account has increased its advertising consumption to 10 million in one month, and currently the daily consumption is approximately between 10 and 20 million.

This type of ad is embedded in the video stream, similar to the long-standing mid-roll ads in the video field. However, unlike traditional mid-roll ads, it is not compulsory. If users encounter content they don't like, they can easily skip it by swiping up and down. In addition, the fragmented nature of short video content also makes this type of mid-roll ad have a lower impact on the user experience, and it will not interrupt the user's viewing experience like long videos.

As for the earliest brands to connect, BMW, Armani and Jindian, compared with the natural content previously released by the brand’s official video accounts, the data performance of the latest brand promotional content has improved to a certain extent with the support of traffic from video account feeds ads.

It is worth noting that the three feed ads are not only aimed at exposure and display, but also have back-end link capabilities connected below the ads.

Based on this, we can make a guess here. In the context where advertisers generally use ROI as the anchor point for their advertising, compared with ByteDance's wool-pulling algorithm that is approaching its limit, Tencent Advertising will focus more on brand premium and put the emphasis on the connection capabilities of the back-end link.

On the premise of integrating product and effect, we will increase the control of interaction rate, retention rate and repurchase rate, and at the same time enrich the retention conversion in different scenarios. For example, car brand advertising will jump to the appointment test drive scenario; luxury goods will jump to the consumption scenario, etc., so that the value of the company's own private domain capabilities can be maximized, thereby attracting more diverse companies to settle in, covering customers of different sizes, and becoming a new growth point.

Prediction 9 Optimizing commercial closed-loop infrastructure: 95% probability

The commercialization opportunities of video accounts mainly include video streaming advertising, live e-commerce and live broadcast rewards.

In the retail industry, Tencent has a more significant advantage in people, and its shortcomings are in goods and places. Goods refer to the supply chain, and places refer to content and e-commerce infrastructure. In 2022, the video account will further improve the infrastructure construction related to video streaming advertising and live streaming, especially the construction of basic functions of supply chain and e-commerce.

So far, Video Account has basically achieved unified management of the supply chain. Self-operated sellers can only go through Video Account Stores, and distribution anchors can only go through the Preferred Alliance. Previously, major SaaS platforms and other supply channels within Tencent gradually exited the market after several rounds of adjustments in 2022. The margin policy has raised the entry threshold, but more importantly, it has driven out "bad money."

Video accounts are connected with the WeChat ecosystem including mini-programs, official accounts, Kanyikan, Soso, Enterprise WeChat, and WeChat Pay. This means that Video accounts have basically achieved the connection and control of the large closed loop of live streaming e-commerce from product listing, content marketing and traffic investment to consumer payment and other e-commerce links, and have also become a hub for the interaction between public and private domain traffic in the WeChat ecosystem.

Within this closed loop, merchants and brands can use commercial tools to achieve more gameplay. For example, with video streaming ads, merchants can reach more consumers. Of course, there are also parts in this closed loop that need to be improved urgently, such as pre-sales and after-sales, which are closely related to sales conversion and accumulation.

Prediction 10 Super Entrepreneur Live Broadcast: Probability Coefficient 50%

The 2023 Spring Festival is the second time that Video Account has obtained the exclusive vertical screen broadcast rights of the Spring Festival Gala. Douyin and Kuaishou are both horizontal screen broadcasts. Although the sales volume is average, it is enough to show the value.

More and more entrepreneurs are starting to join the live streaming sales. It is not ruled out that some people are desperate. From another perspective, they are actually sending the same signal.

This is a business trend. The change in transaction structure has led to a relationship between products and people becoming a relationship between people. Products are highly substitutable, while personal IP is differentiated. This is an experience demand. In the Internet era, users need more vivid and multi-dimensional experiences. Products cannot speak, but entrepreneurs are alive, and people are more likely to trust entrepreneurs than trust products. This is also a value realization. A brand or a company can quantify more than just sales data. Corporate culture, brand power, team capabilities, and innovation capabilities can all be realized in this way. Why not?

So it is possible that one day in the future, when you open the video live broadcast, you will see Brother Xiaolong and Brother Xiaoma sitting there.

Author: Party A Editorial Committee

Source: WeChat public account "Party A Finance (ID: jiafangcaijing2019)"