Short dramas are popular during the Spring Festival. Does the wealth creation myth of “recharging 20 million in a single day” exist?

This year's Spring Festival, short dramas performed very well, many platforms launched related dramas, and related discussions continued to ferment on online platforms. In this article, the author interprets the current situation of short dramas and their future development direction. Let's take a look.

This year during the Spring Festival, it was not the long drama but the short drama that grasped the "traffic code".

According to incomplete statistics, more than 800 short dramas competed for the Spring Festival this year. Among them, Douyin launched 10 short dramas, including "Surpass! A Juan" and "The Little Nyonya of the End of the World", four popular film and television IP derivative dramas; Tencent Video's short drama "Give Her a Handle" rushed to the top two of the hot search list, with a peak popularity of 20,896; Xu Mengjie starred in the Douyin short drama "New Year's Day" and rushed to the second place on the Douyin hot list on the first day of broadcast; "Little Nian Beast and Monster Catcher", created by the original team of the "explosive" short drama "Escape from the British Museum", also caused heated discussions during the Spring Festival...

The most eye-catching one is the short drama "I was a Stepmother in the 1980s", which had a shooting period of 10 days, a post-production cost of 80,000 yuan, and a single-day recharge of over 20 million yuan.

With the breakthrough of a series of short dramas such as "I was a Stepmother in the 1980s", short dramas seemed to have the ability to "turn stones into gold" overnight, becoming a hot project in the capital market. Many capitals have poured into the short drama track, eager to get a piece of the pie. It is worth thinking about whether there is really an entrepreneurial myth in the short drama industry?

1. Behind the data myth, why do mini-program short dramas rely heavily on investment?

The monetization of short dramas is the most concerned issue in the current market. During this year's Spring Festival, "I Was a Stepmother in the 1980s" produced by PalmPlay Network wrote a myth of making money from short dramas , "It took 10 days to shoot, about 80,000 yuan was invested in post-production, and the recharge on the day of release exceeded 20 million yuan ." "I Was a Stepmother in the 1980s" has a simple and crude plot, refined content, compact plot, likable characters, and explosive quotes, which are all the "traffic codes" mastered by the current short drama market.

As the most popular short drama during the Spring Festival, the popularity of this drama is not surprising. The original IP of "I was a Stepmother in the 1980s" comes from Tomato Novel, which tells the story of a modern female college student who travels back to the 1980s and falls in love with a divorced pig farm manager with two children. The heroine in the drama has a cool drama heroine character, who will avenge her grudges, speaks sharply, and acts decisively. The clips of her arguing with everyone and relatives are particularly appropriate when watching during the Spring Festival, and are suitable for fermentation and dissemination.

In addition, the male lead looks like Xiao Zhan and Huo Jianhua, and the female lead looks like Choi Sulli, which has brought a lot of attention to the series through the marketing of celebrity faces.

It is worth mentioning that the producer of the drama, Zhangwan Network, has produced Douyin short dramas that have topped the charts, such as "Boss Pei Wants to Become a Successful Father Every Day", "Such a Mysterious Man", "Boss Li, You Got the Wrong Wife", and "Go Where You Are". Zhangwan Network is good at maximizing the traffic of short dramas. In addition to focusing on content and marketing, it is also willing to spend a lot of money on traffic.

Guolian Securities' December 2023 research report mentioned that the main participants in the paid short drama value chain include: content copyright providers, shooting and production teams, copyright holders, and distributors. Among all cost items, the most important part is the streaming cost, which accounts for nearly 85% of the cost.

It is reported that "I was a Stepmother in the 1980s" had over 10 million views in its first week on Douyin. Both "Pei Zong Wants His Father to Be Poor and His Son to Be Rich" and "I was a Stepmother in the 1980s" were produced by the label Tinghuadao, and the person behind Tinghuadao is Mi Meng. It is undeniable that Mi Meng has always been good at hitting the emotions of readers and viewers, and harvesting huge traffic through traffic strategies.

"I Was a Stepmother in the 1980s" topped up 20 million on the day it was released, and the single-day turnover of over 100 million shocked the industry. Can Mi Meng really make over 100 million with micro-short dramas? The answer is, obviously not!

Comparing with the previous hit micro-short dramas, it can be found that the mini-program micro-short drama "Wushuang", which was launched as early as August 2023, has attracted widespread attention with its achievement of "8 days online, recharge of over 100 million yuan, setting a record for the highest recharge for micro-short dramas".

Li Tao, the founder of Xi'an Fengxing Company, the producer of "Wushuang", believes that there has been a huge divergence in the perception of the mini-program short drama market between the outside world and the industry. He once explained in an interview that breaking 100 million generally refers to "advertising consumption" exceeding 100 million yuan. Mini-program short dramas are heavily dependent on advertising expenditures. According to the industry average ROI standard of 1.2, assuming an investment of 100 million yuan, the profit will not exceed 20 million yuan, which also includes labor and filming costs. After deduction, the net profit is about several million yuan, which will be shared by the mini-program platform, the producer and other upstream and downstream participants.

The upstream and downstream participants of mini-program short dramas can be roughly divided into the channel party that collects the investment and flow fees, the mini-program short drama platform, and the short drama contractor. From the production link, the mini-program short drama platform will provide production funds and IP scripts to the contractor, and the finished film will be launched on the mini-program. In order to attract more users to watch, the platform will then invest the work into the channel, and how many people watch it depends on the investment and flow fees. During the Spring Festival, several micro-short dramas that became popular not only have the characteristics of refreshing writing, fancy marketing, but also have high-budget investment and flow.

Nowadays, from the perspective of the entire chain, the investment costs of micro-short dramas account for the largest proportion, accounting for about 80% to 90% of the costs , and some channels receive daily amounts of 50 million to 100 million yuan.

But it is worth noting that as more and more players enter the market, bidding ads have caused the price of streaming to soar, and some short dramas even have ads running while being filmed to attract users to recharge before rolling streaming. In such a market environment, the claim that short dramas can turn stones into gold is mixed with some water.

There is a 90-100 rule in the short drama market. Jiuzhou Culture, a leading platform, said that the company launches 50-60 short dramas every month, each costing 200,000 to 300,000 yuan. 70% of them can break even, the hit rate is 10% to 15%, and the remaining 10% is a pure loss.

2. With stricter regulation and weakened cyclical advantages, can short dramas still “make a fortune in silence”?

It is not new that short dramas have become a hot topic. Last year, the popularity of "Twenty-Nine" and "Escape from the British Museum" had already shown signs of this trend, and this year's Spring Festival period is even more popular. From the perspective of the players who have entered the market, short dramas have built a well-known MCN organization from celebrities to content to live broadcast monetization channels, as well as IP source manufacturers such as Yuewen, Kuaikan, and Fanqie Novels. Even leading film and television companies such as Dengfeng International, Huace Film and Television, Beijing Jingcai, Changxin Media, and Perfect Film and Television have entered the short drama track.

During the Spring Festival this year, "Big New Year" co-produced by Perfect World and Douyin is another reality-themed short drama after "Full-time Househusband Training Program" and "Wake Up! Love Brain".

According to industry insiders, some traditional film and television companies have turned their attention to short dramas because they have a short production cycle and can see results in a very short time. Usually, after a short drama is released, the funds can be returned within three months, which is much shorter than the long drama that takes one or two years to return funds.

The short cycle is the advantage of micro-short dramas, but changes in policies and review processes are also affecting the direction of the micro-short drama track .

In response to the uneven quality of online micro-short drama content, frequent chaos in operating models, and a mixed industry ecology, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television announced in December 2023 that it would take multiple measures to continue to carry out micro-short drama governance. This governance work involves seven aspects, including accelerating the formulation of the "Detailed Rules for the Creation, Production and Content Review of Online Micro-short Dramas", studying and promoting the inclusion of online micro-short drama apps and "mini programs" in daily management, and other key measures.

In response to the introduction of the policy, many online platforms have made "new moves". Kuaishou cut off the commercial promotion and delivery of third-party micro-drama mini programs, and focused on developing the native micro-drama ecology and commercial links based on Kuaishou mini programs and Kuaishou's internal links.

Douyin has also taken new measures. In the latest "Notice on the Governance of Short Drama Mini Programs", Douyin's huge advertising stated that short dramas on Douyin Mini Programs and short dramas that jump to other third-party platforms should apply to the Short Drama Mini Program Content Library and pass the review before advertising can be placed. Whether it is Douyin or Kuaishou, these measures will help strengthen the review and operation of the platform's own short dramas.

The healthy ecology of the micro-drama industry needs to be maintained by many parties. However, in the view of many industry insiders, mini-program short dramas have the fastest capital recovery and shooting rhythm, which is also their most prominent advantage. If the review process is lengthened and supervision is stricter in the future, many companies in the industry will face challenges. The subject matter of micro-drama shooting cannot be as unrestricted as in the past wild growth period. No one can guarantee that micro-drama will make a profit.

3. Online stores earn hundreds of thousands of dollars from piracy, and short dramas are in urgent need of "regular troops"

Although short short plays such as "I was a Stepmother in the 1980s" became popular during the Spring Festival, the problem of piracy also quietly grew. "I was a Stepmother in the 1980s" costs 39.9 yuan to top up on regular channels, but you can buy the viewing link directly on other e-commerce platforms for 0.1 yuan. For less than ten yuan, you can unlock thousands of short plays including "I was a Stepmother in the 1980s", and some e-commerce stores even make hundreds of thousands of yuan through pirated short plays.

The proliferation of pirated resources has once again exposed the problem of the micro-short drama industry's difficulty in making money. Industry insiders pointed out that there are many users watching pirated content, and it is difficult to claim compensation. Even if it is a high-quality production, there is no way to protect the copyright, because most micro-short dramas have not been reported to the authorities.

Secondly, the life cycle of short dramas is extremely short, which makes it more difficult to combat piracy. According to industry statistics, the average life cycle of most short dramas on mini programs is about one month. If the channel cannot solve the piracy problem in a short period of time, the normal profit cycle of short dramas will be greatly compressed, which will have a serious impact on future development.

At present, Douyin has strengthened its recommendation of genuine short drama mini programs, which can apply for more notification permissions from users, including update reminders, hot drama reminders, home page reminders, etc. Judging from the current development situation, the formalization of short dramas is an inevitable trend.

In general, the micro-short drama industry is becoming a new business growth point, but there is no entrepreneurial myth. On the one hand, the increasingly high investment and streaming costs and the introduction of new regulatory policies are affecting the direction of micro-short dramas. On the other hand, rampant piracy and difficulties such as platform recharges also make micro-short dramas face huge challenges. In this context, micro-short dramas have both opportunities and risks, and investors need to be cautious in following suit.

Author: Beibei Editor: Akagi Pingzi

Source: WeChat public account "Entertainment Unicorn (ID: yuledujiaoshou)"